2012 MLB O/U Record: 83-85-7, -$540
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +1,104
3-1 yesterday to make me 19-9 on Mondays, which is a trend I pointed out when I first started posting here; I just see Mondays better than any other day for some reason. This was a tendency I noticed years ago, and the stats last year proved it also when I went 68-35-6 on Mondays. Today, is Tuesday, however, in which I’ve produced a mediocre 10-10 record thus far (Although I was 60-47-9 on Tuesdays last year). Let’s see what over/unders there are to scoop up today…
**Dollar Amounts To Be Posted Later Leading Up To Gametime**
New York Mets @ Philadelphia Phillies (Best Bet)
Miguel Batista vs Joe Blanton
OVER [Line is currently 8.5, which I’d take, but wait till gametime for it to drop to 8]
Ah, so nice to see Miguel Batista get another start in 2012. Regular readers of mine may recall my infatuation with Mr. Batista from his first start (That Monday under versus Tim Lincecum that somehow held on; one of my very FEW breaks this year), but he didn’t really back it up in that game, as the Giants hit him around before prevailing 6-1. It was not the Miguel Batista that I witnessed dominate opposing lineups at the end of last year, including a complete game shutout of the solid Cincinnati Reds, and perhaps since he’s been a swingman out of the bullpen this year, sprinkled in with some starts in-between, perhaps this erratic Batista is what we can expect to see. Furthermore, he hasn’t pitched in a full week, when he came out of the bullpen to give up three hits and walk four in 2.2 innings of relief against the Astros. He’s had such an inconsistent workload that I don’t think he can really maintain the solid efforts that he had last year, when he was getting somewhat of an extensive look for a rotation spot. That inconsistency gets in your mind as a pitcher,and based on the struggles in his first start, not to mention going up against a hungry Phillies lineup that’s coming off a disappointing loss, Batista appears to be a likely candidate to get knocked around on this Tuesday evening.
Luckily, we have more of a larger sample size to work with when evaluating the performance of Joe Blanton, but unluckily, his 2012 portfolio would indicate anything but an over. In fact, his last start was one of the more dominating outings in all of baseball, as he held the hot-hitting Braves lineup to three hits on the road, en route to a seemingly easy complete game shutout (I had the under and watched that game; he was in complete control from the get-go). I mean, that doesn’t really help our forecast for an over, but take a look at Blanton’s overall numbers: 3-3, 2.83 ERA, and a 1.06 WHIP. Even his strikeout numbers are up a bit, as he has 14 in his last 16 innings of work. However, is that a statline we can see for Blanton when this season is all said and done? Nope. Yes, Blanton had promise early on in his career with Oakland, but at this point in his career, he’s prone to getting hit, and has shown that in some his starts this year (Ex. In San Francisco). While he does possess excellent control, he’s a guy that likes to pound the strike zone, and his stuff can be hittable. When you mix that up against a very scrappy Mets lineup that values every at-bat, and already pummeled him in one start last year (4.1 IP, 10 hits, 7 runs), and I think we’ll get a live NewYork offense in tonight’s bout. I have a good track record with both pitchers (2-0 on Batista in 2011, 1-0 on him in 2012; 4-0 on Blanton in 2011, 2-1 on himin 2012) so hopefully my senses for these guys are still on par. I’m looking at a 6-3/6-5 kind of game.
San Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles Dodgers
RyanVogelsong vs Clayton Kershaw
UNDER [Line iscurrently 6, which I’d take, but wait till gametime for it to go up to 6.5]
If there’s one pitcher that completely owned a division rival last year over a large sample size of games, it would probably be Clayton Kershaw’s wizardry of the San Francisco Giants. Check this out: In six starts against the Giants in 2011, Kershaw posted a 5-0 record in 42 innings, giving up just 29 hits and 8walks, while striking out 49 (!), thus resulting in a 1.07 ERA and 0.88 WHIP. I mean, it’s one thing if those numbers came from only a few starts, but that’s six starts against one team in a single season, each one of them being terrific outings. Considering the Giants’ offense is a little weaker right now without Pablo Sandoval (Although I do fear Brandon Belt), I think it’s a safe bet. In addition, Kershaw is coming off an rough outing (Well, really a rough inning in Colorado when Don Mattingly made the stupid decision to keep him in the 8th; he was dominant up to that point), and each time last year he had an off performance on the road followed by a start at home, he excelled in that second start. Similar scenario here, he already owns the Giants, we all know he’s universally one of the top three pitchers in baseball… there’s absolutely no evidence going against him having yet another great effort against the Giants.
Ryan Vogelsong does not have the same success or track record as his counterpart for tonight does, but he’s a guy that can still give the under a good chance to win. While he’s not keeping up with his all-star pace from a year ago,Vogelsong still has posted some pretty good numbers, possessing a 3.42 ERA to go with 25 strikeouts in 26 innings. His 1.33 WHIP is a little concerning, but as long as he maintains his relatively high strikeout numbers, he can get himself out of any jam, especially regularly competing against weaker National League lineups. The Dodgers lineup certainly is anything but weak, but Vogelsong was solid against them last year in three starts, going 2-1 with a3.20 ERA. Vogelsong is coming off an impressive seven-inning, one-earned-run effort against the Marlins so his confidence is right where it usually is. Hopefully he can somewhat keep up with Kershaw tonight and provide us with a nice pitcher’s duel. WORST case scenario is 4-3 so this is a very good bet atunder 6 or 6.5.
Other 5/8 MLB Over/Unders I’m Taking
James Shields vs Ivan Nova UNDER 9
Justin Verlander vs Kevin Millwood OVER 6.5
Edwin Jackson vs AJ Burnett UNDER 7.5
**May Add More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +1,104
3-1 yesterday to make me 19-9 on Mondays, which is a trend I pointed out when I first started posting here; I just see Mondays better than any other day for some reason. This was a tendency I noticed years ago, and the stats last year proved it also when I went 68-35-6 on Mondays. Today, is Tuesday, however, in which I’ve produced a mediocre 10-10 record thus far (Although I was 60-47-9 on Tuesdays last year). Let’s see what over/unders there are to scoop up today…
**Dollar Amounts To Be Posted Later Leading Up To Gametime**
New York Mets @ Philadelphia Phillies (Best Bet)
Miguel Batista vs Joe Blanton
OVER [Line is currently 8.5, which I’d take, but wait till gametime for it to drop to 8]
Ah, so nice to see Miguel Batista get another start in 2012. Regular readers of mine may recall my infatuation with Mr. Batista from his first start (That Monday under versus Tim Lincecum that somehow held on; one of my very FEW breaks this year), but he didn’t really back it up in that game, as the Giants hit him around before prevailing 6-1. It was not the Miguel Batista that I witnessed dominate opposing lineups at the end of last year, including a complete game shutout of the solid Cincinnati Reds, and perhaps since he’s been a swingman out of the bullpen this year, sprinkled in with some starts in-between, perhaps this erratic Batista is what we can expect to see. Furthermore, he hasn’t pitched in a full week, when he came out of the bullpen to give up three hits and walk four in 2.2 innings of relief against the Astros. He’s had such an inconsistent workload that I don’t think he can really maintain the solid efforts that he had last year, when he was getting somewhat of an extensive look for a rotation spot. That inconsistency gets in your mind as a pitcher,and based on the struggles in his first start, not to mention going up against a hungry Phillies lineup that’s coming off a disappointing loss, Batista appears to be a likely candidate to get knocked around on this Tuesday evening.
Luckily, we have more of a larger sample size to work with when evaluating the performance of Joe Blanton, but unluckily, his 2012 portfolio would indicate anything but an over. In fact, his last start was one of the more dominating outings in all of baseball, as he held the hot-hitting Braves lineup to three hits on the road, en route to a seemingly easy complete game shutout (I had the under and watched that game; he was in complete control from the get-go). I mean, that doesn’t really help our forecast for an over, but take a look at Blanton’s overall numbers: 3-3, 2.83 ERA, and a 1.06 WHIP. Even his strikeout numbers are up a bit, as he has 14 in his last 16 innings of work. However, is that a statline we can see for Blanton when this season is all said and done? Nope. Yes, Blanton had promise early on in his career with Oakland, but at this point in his career, he’s prone to getting hit, and has shown that in some his starts this year (Ex. In San Francisco). While he does possess excellent control, he’s a guy that likes to pound the strike zone, and his stuff can be hittable. When you mix that up against a very scrappy Mets lineup that values every at-bat, and already pummeled him in one start last year (4.1 IP, 10 hits, 7 runs), and I think we’ll get a live NewYork offense in tonight’s bout. I have a good track record with both pitchers (2-0 on Batista in 2011, 1-0 on him in 2012; 4-0 on Blanton in 2011, 2-1 on himin 2012) so hopefully my senses for these guys are still on par. I’m looking at a 6-3/6-5 kind of game.
San Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles Dodgers
RyanVogelsong vs Clayton Kershaw
UNDER [Line iscurrently 6, which I’d take, but wait till gametime for it to go up to 6.5]
If there’s one pitcher that completely owned a division rival last year over a large sample size of games, it would probably be Clayton Kershaw’s wizardry of the San Francisco Giants. Check this out: In six starts against the Giants in 2011, Kershaw posted a 5-0 record in 42 innings, giving up just 29 hits and 8walks, while striking out 49 (!), thus resulting in a 1.07 ERA and 0.88 WHIP. I mean, it’s one thing if those numbers came from only a few starts, but that’s six starts against one team in a single season, each one of them being terrific outings. Considering the Giants’ offense is a little weaker right now without Pablo Sandoval (Although I do fear Brandon Belt), I think it’s a safe bet. In addition, Kershaw is coming off an rough outing (Well, really a rough inning in Colorado when Don Mattingly made the stupid decision to keep him in the 8th; he was dominant up to that point), and each time last year he had an off performance on the road followed by a start at home, he excelled in that second start. Similar scenario here, he already owns the Giants, we all know he’s universally one of the top three pitchers in baseball… there’s absolutely no evidence going against him having yet another great effort against the Giants.
Ryan Vogelsong does not have the same success or track record as his counterpart for tonight does, but he’s a guy that can still give the under a good chance to win. While he’s not keeping up with his all-star pace from a year ago,Vogelsong still has posted some pretty good numbers, possessing a 3.42 ERA to go with 25 strikeouts in 26 innings. His 1.33 WHIP is a little concerning, but as long as he maintains his relatively high strikeout numbers, he can get himself out of any jam, especially regularly competing against weaker National League lineups. The Dodgers lineup certainly is anything but weak, but Vogelsong was solid against them last year in three starts, going 2-1 with a3.20 ERA. Vogelsong is coming off an impressive seven-inning, one-earned-run effort against the Marlins so his confidence is right where it usually is. Hopefully he can somewhat keep up with Kershaw tonight and provide us with a nice pitcher’s duel. WORST case scenario is 4-3 so this is a very good bet atunder 6 or 6.5.
Other 5/8 MLB Over/Unders I’m Taking
James Shields vs Ivan Nova UNDER 9
Justin Verlander vs Kevin Millwood OVER 6.5
Edwin Jackson vs AJ Burnett UNDER 7.5
**May Add More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**
