I've put something together that will take the current state of the game:
Inning (top/bottom)
current outs
men on 1st, 2nd, and 3rd &
run margin
It will then give a predicted percentage of the home team or away team winning the game. It doesn't take into account the pitcher, batter, teams, bullpen's etc.. but it will give an estimate based on historical pct's.
Try it out. If the home team is winning put a positive number in the pull down, if the away team is winning put a negative.
If either team is winning by 5 or more there is a selection for that.
http://www.nationalsportsrankings.com/index.php?option=com_mlblive&view=mlblive&Itemid=200
I've noticed, only tracking recently, that bookmaker has a lot higher money line on a team with a lead than I have even factoring the vig, which my line doesn't. I guess the key is finding a percentage that you'd feel comfortable playing a favorite or taking a legitimate shot against a favorite if they have a below average starter, staked to a lead or a bad bullpen.
Using it with some of the bad bullpen's that are out there, I think there is real value for a big underdog towards the latter part of these games.
I haven't done a ton of testing, but I thought I'd share and if anyone has any thoughts or ideas/comments I'd appreciate it. I did catch a heck of a price on the NY Mets last night when they went down 2-0 as it was early in the game and the line was a ton different than mine.
Inning (top/bottom)
current outs
men on 1st, 2nd, and 3rd &
run margin
It will then give a predicted percentage of the home team or away team winning the game. It doesn't take into account the pitcher, batter, teams, bullpen's etc.. but it will give an estimate based on historical pct's.
Try it out. If the home team is winning put a positive number in the pull down, if the away team is winning put a negative.
If either team is winning by 5 or more there is a selection for that.
http://www.nationalsportsrankings.com/index.php?option=com_mlblive&view=mlblive&Itemid=200
I've noticed, only tracking recently, that bookmaker has a lot higher money line on a team with a lead than I have even factoring the vig, which my line doesn't. I guess the key is finding a percentage that you'd feel comfortable playing a favorite or taking a legitimate shot against a favorite if they have a below average starter, staked to a lead or a bad bullpen.
Using it with some of the bad bullpen's that are out there, I think there is real value for a big underdog towards the latter part of these games.
I haven't done a ton of testing, but I thought I'd share and if anyone has any thoughts or ideas/comments I'd appreciate it. I did catch a heck of a price on the NY Mets last night when they went down 2-0 as it was early in the game and the line was a ton different than mine.
