Preakness Thoughts and Plays

elevenblack301 · May 9, 2012

:howdy: Well , here we go again................ we are a few days out from the Derby...... a terrific race which pounded the crap out of me..... I t was a great race to watch.......and hats off to I'll Have Another and the wonderful trip by his jockey.

I am still scratching my head, why I overlooked that horse , but we now must move on........ on to Pimlico..... and can I'll Have Another do it again........

I would love to see him win the Preakness because I think he will handle the Belmont distance ............with a few others....

I will be listing most of the "facts, figures, numbers , and stats " that I like to look at when trying to break down one of these triple crown races....... I just hope that some of you are able to use some of these numbers to your advantage.

I know most of you already know this, but I am never asking any of you to place bets or wagers according to my suggestions......I am not an expert handicapper, but just someone who has always loved this sport....

It amazes me still, that every now and then, some jackass has to start shooting their mouth off with their deragotory remarks. I really don't understand them, but hey , it's their life ....

I thank all of you that contributed to the Derby thread and thank you in advance for your help and comments with the Preakness. I only hope that some of us get to cash some tickets come Saturday the 19th.....

Thanks , and always be thankful , be well..................11B

elevenblack301 · May 9, 2012

:think2: Let's get things started with which of the possible contenders have raced at least 1 1/8 or greater and what their best time was at this distance..............

Again, we all know that this is a very vague number, as one must consider the track, the surface, the weather, the trip etc.......... but remember in the derby thread, the trifecta came from the top 7 fastest times........

...................................# Races 1/8 or >...................Time

I’ll Have Another........................2..............................1:47.4
Creative Cause..........................2...............................1:47.4
Dullahan...................................3...............................1:47.4
Hansen.....................................2...............................1:48.0
Paynter.....................................1...............................1:48.2
Bodemeister..............................2...............................1:48.3
Isn’t He Clever...........................2...............................1:48.3
Liaison......................................2...............................1:49.3
Cozzetti....................................1................................1:50.3
Went The Day Well.....................2................................1:51.1
Teeth of the Dog........................1................................1:51.2
Tiger Walk................................1.................................1:51.4
Optimizer.................................2.................................1:52.3
Zetterholm...............................0.................................
Hierro......................................0................................
Pretension................................0................................
Brimstone Island.......................0.................................

elevenblack301 · May 9, 2012

:think2: Now here is a list of the race style and early speed points of the possible entries................................

Bodemeister...................E................................8
Brimstone Island...........E/P...............................4
Cozzetti.........................E/P.............................3
Creative Cause...............P................................2
Dullahan........................S................................0
Hansen..........................E................................7
Hierro..........................E/P...............................4
I’ll Have Another...........E/P...............................5
Isn’t He Clever..............E/P...............................4
Liaison..........................P.................................1
Optimizer......................S.................................0
Paynter.......................E/P................................5
Pretension...................E/P................................4
Teeth Of The Dog.........E/P................................5
Tiger Walk.....................P.................................0
Went The Day Well.........P.................................4
Zetterholm....................S.................................0

Hmmmm, only Hansen and the Bodemeister may be running out front in this one........ any other rabbits ?

SqueezetheJuice · May 10, 2012

Eleven,

Previously when capping the derby, horses needed the ability to close; however, the Preakness being shorter, I would think, would open the door for horses with pure speed.

I am looking at Bode (think horse could possibly win it all), Hansen, and I'll Have Another (always keeping the tri-crown hope alive).

At this point, without any extensive research, what top four horses can you point to that would excell at Pimlico's distance/track?

This time I am trying to do it without a ton of crunching. I welcome opinion first. Then, I'll go stats and posts are being drawn.

Let me know, I'd appreciate it!

lookin4awinner · May 10, 2012

hey eleven..... sent you a PM.... read and reply when u get time.... thx

elevenblack301 · May 10, 2012

lookin4awinner said:
hey eleven..... sent you a PM.... read and reply when u get time.... thx

sent you a reply.................. waiting to hear from you...thanks.....

elevenblack301 · May 10, 2012

SqueezetheJuice said:
Eleven,

Previously when capping the derby, horses needed the ability to close; however, the Preakness being shorter, I would think, would open the door for horses with pure speed.

I am looking at Bode (think horse could possibly win it all), Hansen, and I'll Have Another (always keeping the tri-crown hope alive).

At this point, without any extensive research, what top four horses can you point to that would excell at Pimlico's distance/track?

This time I am trying to do it without a ton of crunching. I welcome opinion first. Then, I'll go stats and posts are being drawn.

Let me know, I'd appreciate it!

Squeeze,

Just off the top of my head without too much thinking into it, I would say these four horses could take this race.....

...................Bode - just don't know if he is finally tired...... he will be out front and looks great coming out of derby
...................C Cause - got his bad race behind him............... will be back in the hunt
...................Went The Day Well - should be sitting off pace in this one............love this horse if he races in Belmont
...................I'll Have Another- he is a closer and will need to be closer to the mid pack..... but have to root for him

I do not like any of the new shooters as of yet...................and Hansen, even though I love this gray horse....I think he is entirely 'pooped out' , just looks too tired to come back within two weeks...... hope he proves me wrong... again this is just an opinion to start with....................... let's bring this baby home and you are right , the Preakness favors the front runners............

elevenblack301 · May 11, 2012

:think2: Some more numbers for the possible contenders ....

..........................................................Average Class Last 3

Bodemeister......................................................123.6
I’ll Have Another................................................123.5
Creative Cause..................................................122.7
Dullahan...........................................................122.3
Hansen.............................................................121.9
Went The Day Well.............................................120.9
Liaison..............................................................119.7
Isn’t He Clever...................................................119.0
Optimizer..........................................................119.0
Cozzetti............................................................118.7
Tiger Walk.........................................................118.6
Paynter.............................................................118.2
Teeth Of The Dog...............................................118.1
Hierro...............................................................117.6
Zetterholm........................................................117.6
Pretension.........................................................117.3
Brimstone Island................................................117.2

wabashwonders · May 11, 2012

Looks like Dullahan is now out of the Preakness. Liaison is also out and Hansen connections are "leaning against running". Here is an updated probable field...

I'll Have Another
Bodemeister
Hansen
Went the Day Well
Creative Cause
Optimizer
Hierro,
Tiger Walk
Teeth of the Dog
Pretension
Brimstone Island,
Cozzetti,
Zetterholm,
Guyana Star Dweej.

elevenblack301 · May 12, 2012

:think2: Ok here are some more numbers..................don't have much on Guyana Star Dweej as of yet.............. will have to do some catching up on him..........

.........................................Speed Figure Averages

Bodemeister.........................................104.3
I’ll Have Another...................................102.6
Creative Cause......................................101.3
Hansen................................................100.6
Went The Day Well................................100.3
Hierro...................................................99.3
Paynter.................................................97.0
Tiger Walk.............................................95.0
Liaison..................................................94.3
Teeth of the Dog....................................93.6
Isn’t He Clever.......................................92.3
Optimizer..............................................91.0
Cozzetti................................................90.6
Brimstone Island...................................90.0
Zetterholm...........................................89.0
Pretension............................................87.0

I also need some help from all of you out there............ I had a question posed to me asking..............

What are the years and the names of the 10 horses with the fastest 1/2 fractions in the Kentucky Derby........ ?

Since all 10 of these collapsed in the Derby, except Bodemeister... what does this say for Bode coming into the Preakness.....

I do believe Song and a Prayer in 2001 had the fastest 1/2 fraction, which allowed Monarchos to come down the stretch and win.... just trying to find out the other names and if they raced in the Preakness and if so, what they did.....

Thanks for all of the help................ be well................

tanner12oz · May 12, 2012

Half Mile(1/2)
Time Horse (Year)
:44.86 Songandaprayer (2001)
:45 1/5 Top Avenger (1981)
:45 1/5 Groovy (1986)
:45.38 Spanish Chestnut (2005)
:45 2/5 Bombay Duck (1975)
:45 3/5 Sensitive Prince (1978)
:45.75 Old Trieste (1998)
:45 4/5 For The Moment (1977)
:45 4/5 Bold Forbes (1976)
:45 4/5 Kentucky Sherry (1968)
:45 4/5 Lee Town (1962)
:45 4/5 Spend a Buck (1985)
:45.89 Serena's Song (1995)
:45.99 Hal's Hope (2000)

this is from 2010...help from the most unlikely of sources eh? =)

elevenblack301 · May 13, 2012

:think2: .............Ok here are the Late Pace figure averages of the contenders for the last 3 races.........

........................................Late Pace Figures Average

　

Went The Day Well.............................104.3
Creative Cause..................................102.6
I’ll Have Another................................102.3
Zetterholm........................................100.6
Brimstone Island................................100.0
Teeth of the Dog..................................97.3
Bodemeister........................................97.3
Liaison................................................95.3
Paynter...............................................94.6
Hierro.................................................93.0
Tiger Walk...........................................93.0
Cozzetti...............................................92.0
Isn’t He Clever.....................................89.0
Pretension............................................86.6
Optimizer.............................................82.6
Hansen................................................81.3

elevenblack301 · May 13, 2012

:think2: And here are the Brisnet Prime Power ratings of the possible entries......

I really like to look at the Brisnet Ultimate Past Performnaces when I am trying to get some of the information to help me cap a race............. They are filled with many stats, except they do not have any of the Beyer figures, as they have their own figures.............

.......................................................Prime Power.............

Bodemeister...........................................159.8
Hansen..................................................155.8
I’ll Have Another.....................................154.4
Creative Cause.......................................153.9
Went The Day Well..................................151.9
Liaison...................................................148.5
Paynter..................................................145.4
Isn’t He Clever........................................143.1
Optimizer...............................................142.2
Tiger Walk..............................................140.1
Hierro.....................................................140.0
Teeth of the Dog.......................................137.3
Cozzetti...................................................137.1
Zetterholm...............................................130.2
Pretension................................................128.9
Brimstone Island.......................................128.7

elevenblack301 · May 13, 2012

:think2: Which of the possible entries have already raced on the Pimlico track ?

.........................................................................# Races..............Record

Brimstone Island..................................................1.......................0-1-0

Pretension............................................................1......................1-0-0

　

Well not much going on there, is it...?

elevenblack301 · May 13, 2012

:think2: Which horses have not raced in either a G1, G2 or G3 race ?

.

..........................................Brimstone Island and Zetterholm

elevenblack301 · May 13, 2012

:think2: Which of these entries have raced on an off track and how have they done ?

.......................................................................# Races....................Record

Conzetti...............................................................1..........................1-0-0

Hansen.................................................................2..........................1-1-0

Hierro..................................................................2...........................1-1-0

I’ll Have Another...................................................1............................0-0-0

Paynter................................................................1............................0-1-0

Pretension............................................................1...........................0-0-0

Tiger Walk.............................................................1...........................0-0-0

kbrod66 · May 13, 2012

looking at ,,ill have another/bodemeister/ceative cause...thanks for your time and numbers 11b

kbrod66 · May 13, 2012

sharp sharp turns at pimlico.....speed

elevenblack301 · May 13, 2012

kbrod66 said:
looking at ,,ill have another/bodemeister/ceative cause...thanks for your time and numbers 11b

kbrod66,

think creative cause is going to be there................. just a little worried about his cross country plane trip on Wednesday.................. wish his connections would have just went to Baltimore after the derby....

your are very welcome......thanks for your input as always

Steelcurtain77 · May 13, 2012

kbrod66 said:
sharp sharp turns at pimlico.....speed

:think2::think2:

No they aren't. The turns at Pimlico are virtually identical in terms of circumference to the turns at Churchill. A few years ago, the network that was televising the Preakness at the time took an overhead photo of Pimlico and superimposed it on an overhead photo of Churchill Downs. The result proved to everyone with eyes that Pimlico is most definitely NOT a tight-turned track.

Preakness Thoughts and Plays

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