The Cat's MLB Over/Under Bets & Detailed Writeups - May 9, 2012 - YTD: 88-86-7 (8-2 over past two days)

2012 MLB O/U Record: 88-86-7,-$365
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42,+$1,104


Very nice 5-1 day yesterday of over/unders to bring in $175. I actually SHOULD have been a perfect 6-0, as my Jackson vs Burnett under 7.5 bet was 3-2 in the ninth inning, meaning I could not have been anymore right about the pitching matchup and with my analysis, but I received yet another tough break (Factually, that’s ten games I’ve HAD won but lost in the past WEEK because of fluke BS. I’ll review each of them again if you want me to) when each closer for both teams blew the save in the ninth. Of course, the Nationals blew it in the bottom ofthe ninth with two outs. But you take it and move on, and thankfully, I am back over .500 after what was easily the most embarrassing stretch in my career. Obviously I’d like to soar much past that at this point, since it is May, as to finally get it out of my mind, because I’d be lying if I said this pathetic record of mine isn’t in my head after the great success I had last year. Today, though, will be kind of a laid back day, as I will probably only stick with four games from the slate. Wednesday’s have been my toughest day this year (7-14 on Wednesdays…yeesh. 55-40-4 on Wednesdays last year, however), so I’m not going to potentially let one day that has given me problems throw me back off the wagon. In any case, here they are…


**Dollar Amounts To Be Posted Later Leading Up To Gametime**


Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners (Best Bet… albeit a small one)
Drew Smyly vs Jason Vargas
UNDER 7

One tip I provide to bettors when it comes to over/unders is that if you feel like you have a good beat on a series while it’s playing out, that means you have avery good chance of nailing the latter game(s) in said series. In this example of the on-going Tiger/Mariner series, I’ve won the first two games (Fister vsBeavan under, Verlander vs Millwood over), thus putting me in a fine position to go for the sweep, based on my knowledge of how these two teams match up at the current moment. The pitching matchup appears it can provide us with an under, as first off, it features Drew Smyly, who has been marvelous up to this point of his rookie season. While I’m 0-2-1 in his starts (All overs), I feel I finally have learned about him, and the truth is he looks like a guy who is for real and that is making a significant impact on the Tigers’ 2012 season. Infact, he could be a reason why they’ll recover from their current stretch of mediocre play to ultimately win the AL Central. Right now, he’s 1-0 with a 1.61 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in five starts, which is outstanding for a guy getting his first taste of the big leagues. In addition, he has 29 Ks in 28 innings, and most impressive is that he’s been gunning down good lineups like the Yankees (On the road! You're a special kid if you can go into storied Yankee Stadium and have your way within your first five career starts!) and Rangers. That said, he’s got to be a in great state of mind as he’s just absolutely cruising, and against some weaker competition like the Mariners’ offense, hopefully he can continue to excel. He has shown no signs of slowing down, as he has given up two runs or less in each of his starts. That’s consistency at its finest for a rookie!

Then we have Jason Vargas, a guy I will admit I’ve never had a real good beat on. He always puts up solid numbers, especially at pitcher-friendly Safeco Field, but there’s just something about him that I haven’t been able to fully understand, which is probably why I was 5-6-1 on his over/unders last year. Vargas has looked real solid all year in 2012, compiling a 3-2 record with a 3.09 ERA and fabulous 1.03 WHIP. He also has good strikeout numbers sitting down 32, while also only walking 8. Furthermore, for this specific matchup, I love that he’s a lefthander going up against the Tigers, as Prince Fielder has historically beena less effective hitter against southpaws so hopefully that should be enough to minimize that huge power source in the lineup. Vargas is miraculously making his eighth start of the year in this game (As a result of the early Japan series), and has only really had one off outing: 6.2 innings of 4-run ball… in Texas. Yeah, that can happen. I am banking on this being a nice duel between two lefties who are currently in cruise control at the moment; let’s hope they can maintain their great consistency in this ballgame.


Other 5/9 MLB Over/Under Bets I’m Taking:
Jon Lester vs Bruce Chen UNDER 8.5
Brandon Morrow vs Tyson Ross OVER 7
Dillon Gee vs Cliff Lee UNDER 7

And since it's about to start soon...

Morrow vs Ross OVER 7 will be $32 for $25 (A's keeping some of their starters out, which worries me a bit against a guy like Morrow who can dominate. But Blue Jays have their full lineup in there against an overrated Tyson Ross)

Truthfully, more teams are losing in the 9th this year than I can remember. However when you are doing totals I would think that the bullpen has to be at least as important as the starters for you, right?

skyla316 said:

Truthfully, more teams are losing in the 9th this year than I can remember. However when you are doing totals I would think that the bullpen has to be at least as important as the starters for you, right?

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Your first sentence is EXACTLY spot-on! I've been a diehard baseball fan my whole life, and certainly as much as any other in the country in terms of studying this stuff every night and every boxscore and every pitching matchup over the past couple of years, and there's no way there's been a season with this many bizarre late-game collapses; it's nuts. This trend has just absolutely jumped out at me and it's been a consistent trend, unfortunately, which is also why so many teams have the closer issues that they do.

As for taking bullpens more into account in my formula, I'm a very, very stubborn person. I evaluate the starting pitchers in a given matchup to death, and since it's the same routine that won me 57.5% of my 650+ over/under bets in 2011 - one of the greatest accomplishments I've ever had in my life - I really don't want to tinker with it at all. I mean, of course I'll consider them a bit (Or a lot, if there's a bullpen involved like the 2010 Diamondbacks and their horrific 7+ ERA), especially if there's a noticable recent tendency involved, but I'm just doing exactly what I did last year - only this year, it's been much, much, much more impactful given with all the runs relievers have been giving up. If this unusual streak of bullpen futility continues into the summer months and I am still hovering just a bit over .500, then I should alter my procedure a bit. But until then, I don't really factor bullpens as much; I look at them as more of a steady consistent variable that is prone to giving up a few runs collectively at most, and that's all. Overall, however, it's tough because you would then also have to plot exactly how a game is going to play out, which relievers are going to get involved, etc., and that requires a different thought process altogether because you are then putting too much effort into who's going to win the game (Because you want to know the route through which relievers the game will specifically go through), which isn't my department, and that would require a different mindset. Thus, I prefer to keep it simple and just break down the starters in a game as much as humanly possible.

I can respect that. Gotta hope that the pens calm down then or being right on how a starter is gonna do still wont get you a win cause you are only capping a little more than half a game.. So are you trying for 57% this year again then? Any unit, or in your case specific money amount you are hoping for this year if you do hit 57%? Cause as I know was mentioned once, you can hit that and be down money. Just kinda wondering since do do talk numbers a lot for everything, and you are proud of last year, did you start this year with any projections? You may have posted it and I missed it, sorry if I did. Also, GL the rest of the way

skyla316 said:

I can respect that. Gotta hope that the pens calm down then or being right on how a starter is gonna do still wont get you a win cause you are only capping a little more than half a game.. So are you trying for 57% this year again then? Any unit, or in your case specific money amount you are hoping for this year if you do hit 57%? Cause as I know was mentioned once, you can hit that and be down money. Just kinda wondering since do do talk numbers a lot for everything, and you are proud of last year, did you start this year with any projections? You may have posted it and I missed it, sorry if I did. Also, GL the rest of the way

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While it sounds ridiculous, I actually care more about my record than the money I potentially win because I have a lot of pride in this stuff, so much so that I honestly want to prove that I'm the best MLB Over/Unders guy out there (Unless there's someone out there who has hit over 57.5% in a season doing this every day like I do. If someone has information on someone else with a winning percentage over that in MLB Over/Unders, please let me know. I'd be honored to talk to them). As for the money that I'd like to win, I have no set expectations but I guess my goal would be to make more than the $1,104 that I made last year, only because my bets are mostly bigger than this season (I had a lot more $10 bets last year, for example. This year, I'm doing a lot more over/under bets for more than $100 also).

As for this thing you heard that it's possible to be down in money while still winning 57% of the time, that's crazy. I also feel that's incredibly, incredibly rare, as someone probably would have to lose consistently on their biggest bets, while maintaining a dominant winning percentage with their smaller bets. In my case so far this season, I'm only down because my two biggest bets this year, which were my only ones for over $200 each, both lost (Matusz vs Drabek under on a Sunday afternoon in Toronto, Hendriks vs Moore under in Tampa on a Friday night), but the frustrating thing was that I was 100% right on each one, as both games were 1-0 or 2-1 in the sixth inning of the game. Only lost because Kevin Gregg gave up 7 runs in the bottom of the 6th of the Baltimore game (Complete fluke. Also impossible to factor in because it was the ONLY TIME SINCE 2007 where Kevin Gregg pitched in a game BEFORE the seventh inning) and in the Hendriks/Moore one, the wheels fell off for Hendriks when Alexi Casilla made two really bad fielding plays in the beginning of the bottom of the 6th. Then when I still had the under intact in the 7th or 8th, Joel Peralta, who was absolutely dominant last year, blew the game. Can't predict that either.

That's why I still have the extreme confidence that I have in my abilities. Those are just two of the many, many countless examples this year where bullpens screwed an under, and it's just my luck they occured in such obvious fashion in my two biggest bets of the season.

Theres juice on O/U just like there is on ML games but usually -125 is the highest so its not as bad, but yeah, it's certainly not crazy, its a fact you can be down or close to even at the end of the year hitting 57%. In baseball, and ive been doing this a while, you better be at least 54% or your probably down on the year. Like you said, you lost your 2 big bets which is why your down. But just like I was saying, you said you had it exactly right and lost in the 6th inning? You capped a half a game exactly right. I bet you would be that much better playing 5 inn bets, just imo. Plenty of guys gonna hit in the 50's% for the year, im sure if you looked you'd find them even guys that just do O/U, but in MLB is about units and money won simply because there is no spread, its all ML. I know you said you only really care about record, which is cool, I do too, but a the end of the day, its what are you up.
You seem to have good insight on starting pitchers, which is good, and you have a system that you are gonna stick to, which is also cool. But I know you said you havent been doing this long, and not trying to hijack your thread, lol, just wondering a little what your about since I see your posts with long write ups everyday. I do wish you the best though

skyla316 said:

Theres juice on O/U just like there is on ML games but usually -125 is the highest so its not as bad, but yeah, it's certainly not crazy, its a fact you can be down or close to even at the end of the year hitting 57%. In baseball, and ive been doing this a while, you better be at least 54% or your probably down on the year. Like you said, you lost your 2 big bets which is why your down. But just like I was saying, you said you had it exactly right and lost in the 6th inning? You capped a half a game exactly right. I bet you would be that much better playing 5 inn bets, just imo. Plenty of guys gonna hit in the 50's% for the year, im sure if you looked you'd find them even guys that just do O/U, but in MLB is about units and money won simply because there is no spread, its all ML. I know you said you only really care about record, which is cool, I do too, but a the end of the day, its what are you up.
You seem to have good insight on starting pitchers, which is good, and you have a system that you are gonna stick to, which is also cool. But I know you said you havent been doing this long, and not trying to hijack your thread, lol, just wondering a little what your about since I see your posts with long write ups everyday. I do wish you the best though

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Thank you, I appreciate your insight, especially since it's clear you're a real veteran in baseball betting.

The one thing I forgot to address is why I don't do five-inning bets... In my opinion, they're a gimmick bet, which there's nothing wrong with, but it just doesn't seem as fun. Most importantly, it's not natural. I've been reading boxscores and studying baseball stats ever since I was a little kid, or in other words, final outcomes. I think it'd be harder to look hard at a game and say, "This game will not go over three runs in the first five innings." I also don't like having no margin for error, as a guy could have one of his most dominant outings of the season, but give up two or three runs in the first inning (Like Kershaw last night in my winning under) due to some mental variable before the game that we don't know about. That, and like I said, I'm very stubborn about change and trying new things

Fine push in Morrow vs Ross over, although we were robbed of at least a run in what was probably the longest first inning all season that didn't produce a single run (33 minutes). Whatever. Final amount for lone 7 o'clock game...

Gee vs Lee UNDER 7 - $36 for $30

$36 for $30 on Lester vs Chen under 8.5

Final amount for my last game...

Smyly vs Vargas UNDER 7 - $42 for $40

Wow we really had to scratch and clawww for that Lester vs Chen under. Luckily, Broxton held it together and was able to lock down the save.

Hopefully we can hold on here for my best bet Smyly vs Vargas under to produce a winning day and help me overcome my troubles with Wednesdays!

And there it is, a nice best bet win to close out the day 2-1-1 on my toughest day of the week and retain my confidence as we approach the weekend, which has treated me well this year. I plan on continuing that, as having my confidence back should start to shoot me back into my normal consistent 57% level. I've said it a thousand times: Betting is all MENTAL, and you are your own worst enemy. You can't be great at this without confidence and trust/belief in yourself that you know exactly what you're doing.

That said, as I start to soar well past .500, I can stop worrying about an embarrassing record, and be able to think and focus even more on the games at hand every single night. It's really been bothering me how I've gotten out to this start (Although, let's be honest, I've had countless bad breaks and rare good breaks come my way that single-handedly decided an over/under), but without that distraction, I can start having more fun again doing this, thus being able to give you more winners and evaluate this stuff more naturally. The mental aspect, in my opinion, is the most critical factor into being a successful bettor.

Members of Copy Cat Crew - here's my expectations for the weekend: I want to be at least 10 games over .500 for the season by the end of the weekend (I'm only three right now). I'm in a real good groove right now, being 10-3-1 over the past three days, and it's very important for me to get my normal winning percentage back - VERY important. Just know that as you continue to trust me, there is never a night where I take a night off. I have continued to give you my all, 200% of my mind, literally every single night, and the several hours during the day that I spend re-affirming my top over/unders from each daily slate.

Continue to trust me and I will continue to reward you; I absolutely promise you that there is not another person in this country that works harder than me or is more determined than I am at MLB Over/Unders. It's not cockiness or exaggerating, it's a fact.

CatsOverUnders said:

And there it is, a nice best bet win to close out the day 2-1-1 on my toughest day of the week and retain my confidence as we approach the weekend, which has treated me well this year. I plan on continuing that, as having my confidence back should start to shoot me back into my normal consistent 57% level. I've said it a thousand times: Betting is all MENTAL, and you are your own worst enemy. You can't be great at this without confidence and trust/belief in yourself that you know exactly what you're doing.

That said, as I start to soar well past .500, I can stop worrying about an embarrassing record, and be able to think and focus even more on the games at hand every single night. It's really been bothering me how I've gotten out to this start (Although, let's be honest, I've had countless bad breaks and rare good breaks come my way that single-handedly decided an over/under), but without that distraction, I can start having more fun again doing this, thus being able to give you more winners and evaluate this stuff more naturally. The mental aspect, in my opinion, is the most critical factor into being a successful bettor.

Members of Copy Cat Crew - here's my expectations for the weekend: I want to be at least 10 games over .500 for the season by the end of the weekend (I'm only three right now). I'm in a real good groove right now, being 10-3-1 over the past three days, and it's very important for me to get my normal winning percentage back - VERY important. Just know that as you continue to trust me, there is never a night where I take a night off. I have continued to give you my all, 200% of my mind, literally every single night, and the several hours during the day that I spend re-affirming my top over/unders from each daily slate.

Continue to trust me and I will continue to reward you; I absolutely promise you that there is not another person in this country that works harder than me or is more determined than I am at MLB Over/Unders. It's not cockiness or exaggerating, it's a fact.

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I'm all in.