3 Wednesday w/analysis

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All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise


St. Louis/ARIZONA over 9½
30 games in and pitchers are beginning to establish some stability in their numbers. ERA’s are not fluctuating as much from start to start but there are still some corrections forthcoming. One of those corrections belongs to Wade Miley. The lefty is 3-0 with a 2.33 ERA, 0.96 WHIP and a BAA of .172. Miley is serviceable with a decent sinker but he’s not nearly as good as his current stats suggest. He was quite hittable in the spring with a 5.94 ERA and a .316 BAA. Expect his numbers to start heading south and the Cardinals are just the team to jumpstart them. St. Louis is first or second in every major offensive category in the NL. They’ve won three in a row, including the first two in this set, where they’ve scored 15 times. Kyle Lohse is another pitcher who has unsustainable numbers. His 2.11 ERA is the direct result of a 82.5% strand rate but this park is unforgiving to fly-ball pitchers like Lohse. Current D-Back hitters are batting .292 against Lohse and given his history of arm trouble and lack of other skills (strikeout rate, groundball rate), Lohse is not someone to count on to keep throwing gems. With elite ERA’s and WHIP’s, this total appears high and that’s exactly what the odds makers want you to think. Play: St. Louis/Arizona over 9½ +101 (Risking 2 units).

CLEVELAND -105 over Chicago

The White Sox could very well be the sucker play of the day. Jeanmar Gomez, a complete unknown, is favored over Jake Peavy, a well-established pitcher that is off to a tremendous start and you can be sure that the South Side will take plenty of money here. In 45.1 innings, Peavy has allowed 28 hits, has struck out 39, while issuing just six walks. He also has a 1.99 ERA, a 0.75 WHIP and a BAA of .177. Those are CY Young numbers and he’s certainly an early season candidate for that award. Why then, is he a pooch against Gomez and the Indians? If Cleveland and Gomez were facing Justin Verlander, Brandon Morrow, Jon Lester or a number of other established strong starters in the AL they would not be favored. Gomez has very good numbers this season but he’s had 25 career starts with a 4.37 career ERA and a career BAA against of .292. Something smells awfully fishy about this one and that has us fading the popular choice. Play: Cleveland -105 (Risking 2.1 units).

San Francisco +113 over LOS ANGELES

Tim Lincecum has a 5.68 ERA. His road ERA is 8.53 and that’s why we’ll gladly step in on this still brilliant pitcher. Lincecum has had nothing but pure bad luck. His strand rate of 61% is among the lowest in the majors and it is sure to take a significant rise. Lincecum’s base skills are still teriffic with a 49%/28% groundball/fly-ball ratio and a high strikeout rate of 33 k’s in 32 innings. Lincecum has issued more walks than is characteristic of him so expect that to correct too. Chad Billingsley is a compete wild card from game to game. He can be strong one start and dreadful the next but here’s what we do know. Billingsley is the inferior pitcher here. His skills are just about the average mark and he’s basically a .500 pitcher with very little chance of improving. He’s had an easy schedule this season facing San Diego, Pittsburgh, Milwaukee, Houston, Washington and the Cubs and his 3.18 ERA is a result of that easy slate. In the end, what we have here is true value on one of the game’s best and there’s no way we’re passing it up. Play: San Francisco +113 (Risking 2 units).
 

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Sherwood - just wanted to say I appreciate the input. Much appreciated.
 
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Can't believe D-Backs couldn't score a run with the bases loaded and nobody out in the bottom of the 9th? One run was all we needed...damn we were so close on the total.
 

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