2012 MLB O/U Record: 90-87-8, -$331
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104
Only 2-1-1 yesterday but it was an important performance to me because it came on a Wednesday, a day that I have struggled mightily on thus far in 2012, and while that’s a stat that doesn’t matter to most people, it does to me. Trust me, there are just some bettors out there who perform at their best and at their worst on certain days of the week, as hard as it is to believe (Ex. Just like how I literally own Mondays, as you all have witnessed in each Monday this season). Perhaps most importantly is that it enabled me to retain my confidence as we approach the weekend, which has treated me well for the most part, but the big thing is keeping my confidence because that’s when I’m at my best. I felt good last night looking at the games and I believe we have an excellent Thursday over/unders card on tap…
**Dollar Amounts To Be Posted Later Leading Up To Gametime**
Cleveland Indians @ Boston Red Sox (Best Bet)
Derek Lowe vs Josh Beckett
OVER 9
This will be one of my bigger bets of the season, although there might be one considerably large obstacle standing in our way of ending up on top of it: Derek Lowe’s track record at Fenway Park. Yes, it is significant if a pitcher has a vast history at a ballpark, much like Lowe does with Boston, as he owns a very nifty 3.13 career mark at Fenway. Considering eight of his 16 years as a professional Major Leaguer have been as a member of the Red Sox, it’ll be tough to somewhat overturn that trend. But if you look at how he’s doing this year,there’s a chance we can beat it. At first glance, Lowe is having a marvelous first season in Cleveland (4-1, 2.39 ERA), but upon further review, his numbers really aren’t that special at all. It’s a miracle that his ERA is as low as it is with his shoddy 1.49 WHIP (Yuck), and perhaps even more amazing that he only has 10 strikeouts all season. In fact, he even has more walks (12) than K’s. If you ask any type of baseball analyst like myself who studies this stuff every day, what pitcher is most likely to begin to fall from early-season success, most of them, such as myself again, would respond with Derek Lowe right away. When you’re not striking out guys and constantly letting them get on base, how do you keep escaping jams? You don’t. And against a potent Red Sox lineup thatis very angry at their 12-18 start, well, his luck SHOULD run out tonight, so long as his strikeout numbers stay low, which they should against hitters are tough to put down via the strikeout. Every indication points to him giving up at least a few runs tonight.
The easy part of this over (Knock on wood) may come as a result of the other pitcher in this contest, that being Josh Beckett, and may be because of something that was just reported today. In case you didn’t hear, Beckett is in the news again, this time for allegedly golfing around the time that he was scratched from a scheduled start. While the act of doing that really isn’t a big deal, the fact that it’s being reported as another Red Sox mishap could EASILY affect his performance tonight - and I already had a vibe that he’d get knocked around to begin with. Thus, while Beckett’s numbers so far this year have been almost acceptable (2-3, 4.45 ERA, 1.21 WHIP), this story could serve as a distraction in his mentality, and ultimately do him in, especially if he gets out to a rough start where Red Sox Nation will be ready to pounce on him at any sign of trouble. I expect a 6-4 kind of game in this Thursday night Fenway affair that I believe will be broadcasted on MLB Network.
Washington Nationals @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Stephen Strasburg vs Kevin Correia
UNDER 6.5
The rare chance you get to take an under of 6.5 in a Stephen Strasburg game, you should take it, because as this season rolls on, there will be very, very few of them. I’m perplexed as to why the line even opened up (Before quickly going down to 6) at 6.5 in this particular matchup, especially since it’s Strasburg going up against the usually offensive-challenged Buccos. Strasburg is in absolute top form right now, and while it is inevitable that he comes down to earth at some point later this season for a rough start or two, well, that’s later on in the season. It’s still May, this stuff is all still fresh to the Nationals’ right-handed phenom, thus meaning Strasburg is still mentally in complete control, just as he is physically. There’s been no indication of him having an off start at this point in time, let alone against the weak Pirates. Also interesting of note is that he is returning to the site of his MajorLeague debut, when he wowed a national audience by striking out 14 in seven innings in June 2010. There’s no reason to believe he won’t dominate Pittsburgh tonight, especially with his team coming off two straight losses and trying to avoid a sweep.
Kevin Correia is an interesting specimen, and really showed me something in his last start, which I watched in its entirety on Friday against the Reds. He was cruising until the sixth or seventh inning, when he served up two straight homeruns on consecutive pitches, and while that’s never a good sign for a pitcher, I noticed something I’ve seen from Mr. Correia in one of his starts - he was actually showing Jose Valverde-like emotion on the mound and in the dugout. In other words, he took the end of his outing VERY personal, as evident when camera shots continually showed his face buried within his hands in frustration while sitting alone on the bench. I really admire that in a big-league pitcher, and that’s a trait I never knew existed in Correia. Well, in any case, he’s having a good year (1-2,3.37 ERA, 1.12 WHIP), so I can see him getting back on track, as he has proven in the past that his best months are in the beginning of the season, especially last year when he parlayed that into a berth on the all-star team. In addition,I’m sure he’ll be extra fired up for matching up against one of the game’s true elite in Strasburg so hopefully we get the best out of Correia as a result and see a 5-1 type of game.
Other 5/10 MLB Over/Unders I’m Taking
Derek Holland vs Tommy Hunter OVER 9
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104
Only 2-1-1 yesterday but it was an important performance to me because it came on a Wednesday, a day that I have struggled mightily on thus far in 2012, and while that’s a stat that doesn’t matter to most people, it does to me. Trust me, there are just some bettors out there who perform at their best and at their worst on certain days of the week, as hard as it is to believe (Ex. Just like how I literally own Mondays, as you all have witnessed in each Monday this season). Perhaps most importantly is that it enabled me to retain my confidence as we approach the weekend, which has treated me well for the most part, but the big thing is keeping my confidence because that’s when I’m at my best. I felt good last night looking at the games and I believe we have an excellent Thursday over/unders card on tap…
**Dollar Amounts To Be Posted Later Leading Up To Gametime**
Cleveland Indians @ Boston Red Sox (Best Bet)
Derek Lowe vs Josh Beckett
OVER 9
This will be one of my bigger bets of the season, although there might be one considerably large obstacle standing in our way of ending up on top of it: Derek Lowe’s track record at Fenway Park. Yes, it is significant if a pitcher has a vast history at a ballpark, much like Lowe does with Boston, as he owns a very nifty 3.13 career mark at Fenway. Considering eight of his 16 years as a professional Major Leaguer have been as a member of the Red Sox, it’ll be tough to somewhat overturn that trend. But if you look at how he’s doing this year,there’s a chance we can beat it. At first glance, Lowe is having a marvelous first season in Cleveland (4-1, 2.39 ERA), but upon further review, his numbers really aren’t that special at all. It’s a miracle that his ERA is as low as it is with his shoddy 1.49 WHIP (Yuck), and perhaps even more amazing that he only has 10 strikeouts all season. In fact, he even has more walks (12) than K’s. If you ask any type of baseball analyst like myself who studies this stuff every day, what pitcher is most likely to begin to fall from early-season success, most of them, such as myself again, would respond with Derek Lowe right away. When you’re not striking out guys and constantly letting them get on base, how do you keep escaping jams? You don’t. And against a potent Red Sox lineup thatis very angry at their 12-18 start, well, his luck SHOULD run out tonight, so long as his strikeout numbers stay low, which they should against hitters are tough to put down via the strikeout. Every indication points to him giving up at least a few runs tonight.
The easy part of this over (Knock on wood) may come as a result of the other pitcher in this contest, that being Josh Beckett, and may be because of something that was just reported today. In case you didn’t hear, Beckett is in the news again, this time for allegedly golfing around the time that he was scratched from a scheduled start. While the act of doing that really isn’t a big deal, the fact that it’s being reported as another Red Sox mishap could EASILY affect his performance tonight - and I already had a vibe that he’d get knocked around to begin with. Thus, while Beckett’s numbers so far this year have been almost acceptable (2-3, 4.45 ERA, 1.21 WHIP), this story could serve as a distraction in his mentality, and ultimately do him in, especially if he gets out to a rough start where Red Sox Nation will be ready to pounce on him at any sign of trouble. I expect a 6-4 kind of game in this Thursday night Fenway affair that I believe will be broadcasted on MLB Network.
Washington Nationals @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Stephen Strasburg vs Kevin Correia
UNDER 6.5
The rare chance you get to take an under of 6.5 in a Stephen Strasburg game, you should take it, because as this season rolls on, there will be very, very few of them. I’m perplexed as to why the line even opened up (Before quickly going down to 6) at 6.5 in this particular matchup, especially since it’s Strasburg going up against the usually offensive-challenged Buccos. Strasburg is in absolute top form right now, and while it is inevitable that he comes down to earth at some point later this season for a rough start or two, well, that’s later on in the season. It’s still May, this stuff is all still fresh to the Nationals’ right-handed phenom, thus meaning Strasburg is still mentally in complete control, just as he is physically. There’s been no indication of him having an off start at this point in time, let alone against the weak Pirates. Also interesting of note is that he is returning to the site of his MajorLeague debut, when he wowed a national audience by striking out 14 in seven innings in June 2010. There’s no reason to believe he won’t dominate Pittsburgh tonight, especially with his team coming off two straight losses and trying to avoid a sweep.
Kevin Correia is an interesting specimen, and really showed me something in his last start, which I watched in its entirety on Friday against the Reds. He was cruising until the sixth or seventh inning, when he served up two straight homeruns on consecutive pitches, and while that’s never a good sign for a pitcher, I noticed something I’ve seen from Mr. Correia in one of his starts - he was actually showing Jose Valverde-like emotion on the mound and in the dugout. In other words, he took the end of his outing VERY personal, as evident when camera shots continually showed his face buried within his hands in frustration while sitting alone on the bench. I really admire that in a big-league pitcher, and that’s a trait I never knew existed in Correia. Well, in any case, he’s having a good year (1-2,3.37 ERA, 1.12 WHIP), so I can see him getting back on track, as he has proven in the past that his best months are in the beginning of the season, especially last year when he parlayed that into a berth on the all-star team. In addition,I’m sure he’ll be extra fired up for matching up against one of the game’s true elite in Strasburg so hopefully we get the best out of Correia as a result and see a 5-1 type of game.
Other 5/10 MLB Over/Unders I’m Taking
Derek Holland vs Tommy Hunter OVER 9
