2012 MLB O/U Record: 93-87-8, -$126
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104
Dominant 3-0 day last night, as I begin to creep up back into my normal, expected 57-percent territory. The most encouraging thing about my recent dominance is that it came through what has been my toughest stretch of the week this year (Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday), and in case you missed it, I posted my in-depth stat breakdown for each day of the week this year and last year. Luckily for us, I’ve been cruising on the weekends for the most part (Other than one bad Friday evening that I followed up with my legendary 8-0 Saturday a few weeks ago), so let’s keep it going on this promising Friday slate…
Houston Astros @ Pittsburgh Pirates (Best Bet) - $176 for $135
Bud Norris vs James McDonald
UNDER 7.5
Wow. As soon as I saw this pitching matchup, I nearly had a heart-attack last night. And while that might sound ridiculous for two “lesser known” pitchers, they happen to be my two favorite pitchers in all of baseball, as I have continually professed throughout the season. It also just so happens to be that I might know these two right-handers better than anybody else in the country. Take a look at the stats for yourself: With good ol’ Bud Norris, I’m 2-1 on his over/unders this year (Should be 3-0, as I was 100% right about him in his under against Jamie Garcia Saturday; Garcia screwed it up with an unusually bad start) and was 11-6-1 with him last year. Meanwhile, with James McDonald, I am 3-1 on him this year (Should be 4-0, as I was 100% right about him in his first start; the Sunday game against Vance Worley in which both bullpens blew the under late), and was 11-5-3 on him in 2011. I’ve been tracking these two pitchers pretty much closer than anybody else since bursting onto the scene (Norris in 2009 with that beeeautiful debut versus St. Louis; McDonald the minute he was traded to Pittsburgh and debuted against Jeff Francis in 2010). So, yeah, I have a lot of special history with these two, as I bet on them more than any other pitcher last year besides JA Happ, who I am also obsessed with.
But you can rely on much more than my own personal bias and affection towards each pitcher. The fact is, these are two guys who have taken the next step forward in their careers and finally are starting to get somewhat of a significant notice. Norris, for instance, is starting to hit his stride again after a wonderful ’11 campaign (3.77 ERA, 176 Ks), as he’s given up only three earned runs in his last 12+ innings. The only thing that concerns me is that he hasn’t been as effective on the road this year (7.13 ERA, 1.70 WHIP) as at home (2.29ERA, 1.12 WHIP), a trend that has existed before 2012, but obviously he’s not going to end up that bad in his road starts. Thus, the Law of Averages shouldcome into play, and given Norris’ success against the Buccos last year (3.38 ERA in four starts; 26 Ks in 26 IP), there’s a strong chance he’ll be fine and put us under bettors in a good position to win tonight.
Meanwhile, there’s James McDonald, who has arguably taken a bigger leap forward. I always, always, always said that J-Mac could be a top-rotation starter, given the excellent stuff he has always possessed throughout his career. The only problem was keeping him on the mound, as there was a combination of him throwing too many pitches and having a conservative manager like Clint Hurdler who’d be quick to yank him and protect his arm. However, it clearly appears that McDonald has put it all together and has having an absolutely fabulous 2012. While he’s only 2-1, he’s got a 2.70 ERA and 1.09 WHIP, to go along with his 31 Ks and in 39 innings. Furthermore, J-Mac (Yes, that’s his real signature nickname. Watch any of his starts) had tremendous success against the Astros last year, going 2-1 in four starts against them with a 1.80 ERA, 1.24 WHIP,and 24 Ks in 25 innings. There is no reason to believe he’s about to fall off the wagon of his great 2012 season; look for him to keep it up here.
I mean, there are a lot of reasons to put everything on this under. You have me on your side, who knows both these hurlers better than anybody else - and that’s not some ridiculous exaggeration. I’ve been preaching for years that these guys are my two favorite pitchers. They both have good track records against the opposing team, they’re both in great states of mind right now with their recent successes on the season. What’s not to like?
I am just so infatuated by this matchup that I can’t see myself doing another write-up tonight for any other game, as crazy as that sounds. This Friday evening, to me at least, is all about Bud Norris and James McDonald, and I’m sure I will be drinking in their honor later tonight (Hopefully when this bet works out). But in any case, here’s the rest of my bets on tonight’s card, with some pretty solid gems in there…
Other 5/11 MLB Over/Unders I’m Taking:
Felipe Paulino vs Gavin Floyd OVER 7.5 - $61 for $55 (I’m really curious as to why the line is as low as it is; it actually went down a FULL run from last night. Paulino was excellent in his first start against the Yankees, and I’ve always loved him since he picked up that magical 74th win with the 2009 Astros team that I will always be indebted to, but he can be erratic. Floyd is also a little overrated)
CJ Wilson vs Yu Darvish UNDER 8.5 - $47 for $40 (Two real pros at the top of their game right now. Only reason I’m not putting more on this is because as much as I love CJ Wilson, it’s a huge variable for him to be returning to Texas. He really is one of the game’s elite right now, but it’s too unpredictable how he’ll fare tonight, as this is the first time in his professional career where he’s in a situation like this, pitching in his old home. I hate getting beat by variables that are impossible to predict)
Rick Porcello vs Tom Milone UNDER 7.5 - $33 for $25 (Milone has fallen off track a bit after his wonderful start, but the Tigers’ offense, especially Prince Fielder, is not as potent against lefties so maybe he'll hold his own here. Porcello is such a mixed bag that I’m only taking a small stab at this one)
Johan Santana vs Mark Buehrle UNDER 7 - $21 for $20 (Two of the game’s best lefties in a pitcher’s park with an over/under of 7? Vegas obviously baiting people inthe under, and I’ll bite. Why not? They’ve shown no signs of slowing down and as long as each guy gives their usual effort, we’ll be in fine shape)
Madison Bumgarner vs Patrick Corbin OVER 9 - $24 for $20 (Eh, this is more vibe than anything. Bumgarner is really good, but due for an off start, and a hungry Diamondbacks lineup that’s mired in a losing stretch might be what does him in tonight. Then there’s Patrick Corbin, who just looks lost at times. Solid bet)
**May Add More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104
Dominant 3-0 day last night, as I begin to creep up back into my normal, expected 57-percent territory. The most encouraging thing about my recent dominance is that it came through what has been my toughest stretch of the week this year (Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday), and in case you missed it, I posted my in-depth stat breakdown for each day of the week this year and last year. Luckily for us, I’ve been cruising on the weekends for the most part (Other than one bad Friday evening that I followed up with my legendary 8-0 Saturday a few weeks ago), so let’s keep it going on this promising Friday slate…
Houston Astros @ Pittsburgh Pirates (Best Bet) - $176 for $135
Bud Norris vs James McDonald
UNDER 7.5
Wow. As soon as I saw this pitching matchup, I nearly had a heart-attack last night. And while that might sound ridiculous for two “lesser known” pitchers, they happen to be my two favorite pitchers in all of baseball, as I have continually professed throughout the season. It also just so happens to be that I might know these two right-handers better than anybody else in the country. Take a look at the stats for yourself: With good ol’ Bud Norris, I’m 2-1 on his over/unders this year (Should be 3-0, as I was 100% right about him in his under against Jamie Garcia Saturday; Garcia screwed it up with an unusually bad start) and was 11-6-1 with him last year. Meanwhile, with James McDonald, I am 3-1 on him this year (Should be 4-0, as I was 100% right about him in his first start; the Sunday game against Vance Worley in which both bullpens blew the under late), and was 11-5-3 on him in 2011. I’ve been tracking these two pitchers pretty much closer than anybody else since bursting onto the scene (Norris in 2009 with that beeeautiful debut versus St. Louis; McDonald the minute he was traded to Pittsburgh and debuted against Jeff Francis in 2010). So, yeah, I have a lot of special history with these two, as I bet on them more than any other pitcher last year besides JA Happ, who I am also obsessed with.
But you can rely on much more than my own personal bias and affection towards each pitcher. The fact is, these are two guys who have taken the next step forward in their careers and finally are starting to get somewhat of a significant notice. Norris, for instance, is starting to hit his stride again after a wonderful ’11 campaign (3.77 ERA, 176 Ks), as he’s given up only three earned runs in his last 12+ innings. The only thing that concerns me is that he hasn’t been as effective on the road this year (7.13 ERA, 1.70 WHIP) as at home (2.29ERA, 1.12 WHIP), a trend that has existed before 2012, but obviously he’s not going to end up that bad in his road starts. Thus, the Law of Averages shouldcome into play, and given Norris’ success against the Buccos last year (3.38 ERA in four starts; 26 Ks in 26 IP), there’s a strong chance he’ll be fine and put us under bettors in a good position to win tonight.
Meanwhile, there’s James McDonald, who has arguably taken a bigger leap forward. I always, always, always said that J-Mac could be a top-rotation starter, given the excellent stuff he has always possessed throughout his career. The only problem was keeping him on the mound, as there was a combination of him throwing too many pitches and having a conservative manager like Clint Hurdler who’d be quick to yank him and protect his arm. However, it clearly appears that McDonald has put it all together and has having an absolutely fabulous 2012. While he’s only 2-1, he’s got a 2.70 ERA and 1.09 WHIP, to go along with his 31 Ks and in 39 innings. Furthermore, J-Mac (Yes, that’s his real signature nickname. Watch any of his starts) had tremendous success against the Astros last year, going 2-1 in four starts against them with a 1.80 ERA, 1.24 WHIP,and 24 Ks in 25 innings. There is no reason to believe he’s about to fall off the wagon of his great 2012 season; look for him to keep it up here.
I mean, there are a lot of reasons to put everything on this under. You have me on your side, who knows both these hurlers better than anybody else - and that’s not some ridiculous exaggeration. I’ve been preaching for years that these guys are my two favorite pitchers. They both have good track records against the opposing team, they’re both in great states of mind right now with their recent successes on the season. What’s not to like?
I am just so infatuated by this matchup that I can’t see myself doing another write-up tonight for any other game, as crazy as that sounds. This Friday evening, to me at least, is all about Bud Norris and James McDonald, and I’m sure I will be drinking in their honor later tonight (Hopefully when this bet works out). But in any case, here’s the rest of my bets on tonight’s card, with some pretty solid gems in there…
Other 5/11 MLB Over/Unders I’m Taking:
Felipe Paulino vs Gavin Floyd OVER 7.5 - $61 for $55 (I’m really curious as to why the line is as low as it is; it actually went down a FULL run from last night. Paulino was excellent in his first start against the Yankees, and I’ve always loved him since he picked up that magical 74th win with the 2009 Astros team that I will always be indebted to, but he can be erratic. Floyd is also a little overrated)
CJ Wilson vs Yu Darvish UNDER 8.5 - $47 for $40 (Two real pros at the top of their game right now. Only reason I’m not putting more on this is because as much as I love CJ Wilson, it’s a huge variable for him to be returning to Texas. He really is one of the game’s elite right now, but it’s too unpredictable how he’ll fare tonight, as this is the first time in his professional career where he’s in a situation like this, pitching in his old home. I hate getting beat by variables that are impossible to predict)
Rick Porcello vs Tom Milone UNDER 7.5 - $33 for $25 (Milone has fallen off track a bit after his wonderful start, but the Tigers’ offense, especially Prince Fielder, is not as potent against lefties so maybe he'll hold his own here. Porcello is such a mixed bag that I’m only taking a small stab at this one)
Johan Santana vs Mark Buehrle UNDER 7 - $21 for $20 (Two of the game’s best lefties in a pitcher’s park with an over/under of 7? Vegas obviously baiting people inthe under, and I’ll bite. Why not? They’ve shown no signs of slowing down and as long as each guy gives their usual effort, we’ll be in fine shape)
Madison Bumgarner vs Patrick Corbin OVER 9 - $24 for $20 (Eh, this is more vibe than anything. Bumgarner is really good, but due for an off start, and a hungry Diamondbacks lineup that’s mired in a losing stretch might be what does him in tonight. Then there’s Patrick Corbin, who just looks lost at times. Solid bet)
**May Add More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**
