The Cat's MLB Over/Under Bets & Detailed Writeups - May 12, 2012 - YTD: 96-92-8

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2012 MLB O/U Record: 96-92-8, -$137
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104


Very mad at myself that I wasted a victory in one of my top five biggest over/under bets of the season, as I went 3-5 overall for the day last night to end up about even. Again, I stress that this is all MENTAL and you as a bettor are your own worst enemy. That easy Norris vs McDonald under was something that stuck out to me right away during my over/under breakdown routine, but unfortunately, it was the first game I reviewed (I go in order based on the MLB.com Mobile site. It's a very strict hours' long process), and like I said, I was so infatuated by an unlikely pitching matchup between my two favorite pitchers in all of baseball that I wasn’t able to properly focus on the rest of the games. I found that first game, then went into the mindset of, “Well, I can't believe McDonald and Norris are facing each other and I already have this huge bet locked up. Let me just grab some others for the hell of it,” which is not a recipe for success on any given night, since I’m not concentrating properly or to my full potential on those other games. However, it is rare, though, that your two favorite pitchers square off in one game so that should be an attitude I could avoid from here on out. In any case, let’s move on to the Saturday slate…


(Postingthis early because I have a 1 o’clock game. Detailed write-ups to come later withmy best bets)


CJ Wilson vs Matt Harrison UNDER 9 - $20 for $21

Justa small bet to begin the day. Anything more would be foolish, since CJ Wilson is surrounded by unpredictable variables. One, we still don’t know how he’s thinking mentally since this is the first time in his big-league career that he’s pitching in his old home, and I’ve noted on here from watching Wilson for years ever since he was a scrub reliever years ago what a mentally-driven pitcher he is - how the in-game scenarios or how his performance is going easily dictate what will happen next - thus meaning this could easily affect his performance. Then again, he technically “started” last night so does that mean those jitters won’t be there this afternoon? Two, he’s the first pitcher since Aaron Myette in 2002 (So nice to say that name in 2012. As a diehard Ranger fan, I actually liked him when he was with us during that awful era of Rangers baseball) to start games onconsecutive days, so how does that play into his outlook? In my opinion, he’ll be just fine because, as I hinted to, the jitters or nerves of returning to Texas should be gone, and best of all, his stats took a beatdown last night after the rain delay came to a conclusion, as all those inherited runners scored thanks to Jerome Williams, so I’m sure he’ll be extra motivated to atone for that. Meanwhile, Matt Harrison is much better than his 5+ ERA and should start to bring that down again so hopefully he gives us a fine start. Only a small bet, however.


As I said, I'll be back in a bit with my bigger bets (Nicasio vs Harang U8, Volquez vs Halladay U6.5) and in the form of detailed write-ups. Good luck to us in this first game
 
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Good start thus far with Wilson vs Harrison under. Hopefully that can hang on before we dwelve into my bigger bets this evening. Remember, also, that Saturdays have statistically been my best day this year (Despite being my worst last year), as I'll be a remarkable 19-7-2 on Saturday over/unders if that Wilson vs Harrison under sticks for the victory. And here they are...


**Dollar Amounts To Be Posted Later Leading Up To Gametime**


Colorado Rockies @ Los Angeles Dodgers (Best Bet)
Juan Nicasio vs Aaron Harang
UNDER 8

I’ll be honest: One of the main reasons I’m taking this game, let alone labeling it as my best bet for the entire day, is because of the line, which is something I don’t usually recommend, as one of my rules of over/unders is to NEVER get into the habit of letting the line dictate your opinion on a game. However, I already had my opinion before I saw the line on both pitchers, and seeing it at 8 only encouraged me to lock in on it with a bigger amount than I first anticipated. And there’s solid reasoning to it.

First off, this is a matchup of two pitchers who have not yet reached their 2012 potential. In other words, while both have an ERA north of 5, it is something that definitely will not stick. Let’s start with Juan Nicasio, a guy I was really starting to like last year in his rookie campaign, and he was really building some steam with consecutive quality starts before the unfortunate lined rive to the face that derailed his year. He’s come back this season and hasn’t been quite as effective, although there have been some starts that would hint otherwise. Half of his efforts this year have produced outings giving up two runs or less in 6+ innings of work, which is more than acceptable. It’s just that he’s been hit around a bit in other starts, which is why his ERA (5.35) and WHIP (1.63) are as high as they are. The overall vibe I’ve gotten from Nicasio is that he’s better than that and will fix those numbers at some point in time, which I believe he can start doing in this Saturday night affair. Furthermore, he already shut down the Dodgers this year (6 IP, 2 runs, 4 Ks on 4/30 at Coors Field), so as long as he can give us something that slightly resembles that, we’ll be in good shape.

Speakingof guys not living up to their potential, there is Aaron Harang, who appears far removed from a year that saw him produce a 14-7 record with a 3.64ERA, as he posted in San Diego in 2011. This season, he hasn’t been able to maintain that momentum with his new team, but it’s not like he’s been horrible.H e’s really only had one or two off starts, while the others were just fine or good. Harang also even set a Dodgers franchise record this year, which is pretty cool, when he struck out NINE consecutive Padre hitters on April 13 (One short of the Major League record, actually), so the strikeout ability he’s always had is still there (32 Ks in 34 IP overall). That’s always a strong positive because even when you continually let guys get on base against you (1.57 WHIP), you can get out of any jam at any time via the strikeout. I like that Harang’s last start was his best of the season, when he limited the Cubs at Wrigley to two runs over six innings, so that is certainly something he can build off of in effort to return to his normal production. I’m warning you, though,that if you didn’t get the line at 8, don’t take it. One of the reasons I’m putting a lot on it is because I’m protected in the likely event of a 6-2 or 5-3 outcome. Avoid if your book has it only at 7.5.


San Diego Padres @ Philadelphia Phillies
Edinson Volquez vs Roy Halladay
UNDER 6.5

It’s always nice being able to get a Roy Halladay under shortly after he had one ofthe worst outings of his career (5.1, 12 hits, 8 runs on 5/2 in Atlanta). Since then, he’s gotten back on track with a terrific start against the Mets, but when you’re at a level as high as he is, an outing like his bad one in Atlanta only ten days ago still has to feel somewhat fresh in his mind, thus making him all that much more focused to erase it from everyone’s recent memory. There’s areason he’s Doc Halladay - a doctor on the mound and a perfectionist in the mind. Everyone knows of his accolades and stature as one of the game’s best, and going up against a weak Padres offense - a team that actually overachieved in getting two runs off him on April 21 - there’s no reason to doubt an oncoming excellent performance from Mr. Halladay on this evening. He also uncharacteristically lost that 4/21 contest in San Diego, so I expect him to be more dominant against the Friars this time out, since he'll be more determined and motivated.

The key factor in scoring this under is if Edinson Volquez will have his good stuff going to go pitch-for-pitch with the class of the National League. Just as I said at the very beginning of the year, Volquez was primed for a renaissance year with his new team after closing out 2011 very nicely in Cincinnati. That’s been exactly the case, as he has very nice numbers (2.98 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 38 Ks in 42 innings) despite only having one win on the year. Volquez has only given up three runs in his last 19+ innings, which means he’s in a real groove right now, and when this guy is in a significant rhythm, he’s awfully tough to hit. I believe Volquez can keep it going here tonight in Philadelphia, and with Halladay giving us one of his usual surgical procedures on the hill, this one should end up 3-2. Besides, considering Halladay’s first start against the lowly Padres went over, what are the extreme odds that two Roy Halladay games against San Diego go over in one season? It's a stretch, but just something else to consider: Law of Averages indicates that’s very unlikely.


Other 5/12 MLB Over/Unders I’m Taking
Doug Fister vs Brandon McCarthy UNDER 7


**May Add More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**
 
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Nice win in Wilson vs Harrison under. Here's the dollar amounts for my three other games...

Nicasio vs Harang UNDER 8 - $124 for $95
Volquez vs Halladay UNDER 6.5 - $69 for $60
Fister vs McCarthy UNDER 7 - $48 for $40
 
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Another sweep from The Cat. Feels good to be back at my pinnacle, I expect this to continue consistently
 
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Even more impressive was that it was a 4-0 sweep where we didn't have to sweat through ANY of the games. That's as good as it gets
 

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