The Cat's MLB Over/Under Bets & Detailed Writeups - May 13, 2012 - YTD: 100-92-8 (20-8-1 over past 6 days)

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2012 MLB O/U Record: 100-92-8, +$79
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104


Feels good to be back to normal, as my 20-8-1 week that has resulted in me making well over $700, has put me back on track to return to my normal 57-percent territory, which is actually something I planned on exceeding. Now that I’ve put my rough start behind me (Solely thanks to rust and bad breaks, not ability or talent), I should be in position to accomplish that, as I’ve managed to maintain my momentum throughout the week and it should continue more consistently from here on out. Unfortunately, though, if you’re just learning of me or just starting to read my articles, I wouldn’t recommend today as a day to tail me, as crazy as that sounds given my current hot run. But looking over the pitching matchups last night for today for two hours when I got home Saturday, I just wasn’t feeling it mentally, especially for a Sunday that has one big variable (Mother’s Day; holidays can get into a pitcher’s head and affect their performance. A lot of players take a different approach also), and I’ve been a bit off on Sundays this year as well. Therefore, today will be basically a laid-back day for TheCat, with just one (Maybe more) over/under sprinkled in just to keep up with the fact that I don’t take a single day off of the baseball season and bet literally every day. If you’re going to follow me today and be in Copy CatC rew, this is just for a very small amount…


Houston Astros @ Pittsburgh Pirates - $24 for $20
Wandy Rodriguez vs AJ Burnett
UNDER 7

Thisis what I call a “bail-out” over/under, as I wasn’t really feeling anything strong vibe-wise for this afternoon. Thus, I decided to go with what appears to be one of the “safer” games, going with an under of 7 in a potentially solid pitching matchup between two weaker offensive ballclubs. AJ Burnett is what strikes me as the most peculiar option here because, as he’s mostly shown thusfar this year, he’s back in his top form. Yes, his ERA looks horrid at 6.44,w hile his 1.44 WHIP isn’t too pretty either, but it’s probably one of the most misconstrued statlines you’ll see out of any pitcher. The fact is that ever since he returned from his frightening eye injury, three out of his four starts with the Buccos have been actually brilliant, resulting in just four runsa llowed over 21 innings! The reason why his numbers look so off is because of an epically bad start in St. Louis a couple of weeks ago, when he surrendered 12 runs in less than three innings of work. Yeah, it’s going to take some work to atone for that, and he started in the right direction by limiting the Nationals to two runs over eight innings in his last start. He seems right mentally,which he certainly wasn’t in New York over the past few years, so hopefully he can keep it going against Houston.

Wandy Rodriguez is actually the one I’m worrying about more in this specific matchup, despite his stellar 2.14 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. He’s coming off a start in which he allowed his most runs of the year (Even though it was a good one overall; four runs in eight innings vs Miami), and he was simply average against the Pirates last year, a team that he mostly got the better of in years prior to 2011. Furthermore, I don’t think he can keep up with his current pace at all, as there have been instances in his career where he’d even carry similar numbers into the later months, only to fall off track and suffer a bit in some of his starts. Meanwhile,the Pirates offense busted out last night with five runs (To them, that’s busting out), and if those potentially dangerous bats get going (Andrew McCutchen, Pedro Alvarez, Neil Walker specifically), they could be a real tough team to beat. On the contrary, I’m looking at this as a “safe” bet because Wandy has pumped out nothing but quality starts this year, so as long as he gives us his usual consistent effort on this beautiful Mother’s Day Sunday afternoon, we’ll be in fine shape. It’s a fine bet, but not a big one, hence my small price tag.


**May Add More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**
 
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Well technically, that one game was my best bet since it looks like it'll be my only bet from the Sunday slate. And looks like yet another win... Yawn
 

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