Brewers -140 (2 Units)
Yovanni Gallardo's stats are very deceiving. If you take away his two starts against the Cardinals, he's 2-1; 2.45 ERA this season. In his career against the Mets, he's been pretty average with a 2-2 record and 3.47 ERA. Keep in mind that Jose Reyes was somewhat of a nemesis and now he's a Marlin. David Wright is only batting .214 against Gallardo. The Mets are sending Miguel Batista to the mound today. There is not much that excites me about Batista. He's got a fastball that tops out around 91mph, an average breaking ball and change up, and a very hittable sinker. He is far from overpowering, and walks an average 3 batters per outing. The Brewers have the kind of lineup that should see his stuff pretty well, although they haven't seen much of this old veteran yet.
Blue Jays -135 (2 Units)
I've been riding the Brendan Morrow money train for a few weeks now, and I'll continue to do so here. In my opinion, this pitching match-up is very lop-sided. Morrow has been lights out lately (3-0; 0.43 ERA in last three starts). His command has been great, and his stuff has been electric. The Blue Jays bats have been a little cold lately, but at home they have the potential to put some runs on the board. Niemann is taking the mound for the Rays tonight. He has been pretty consistent so far this season, but one of his early hiccups happened in Toronto when he gave up 5 runs in 5 innings. His career ERA against the Blue Jays is 5.11, and its 5.21 at Rogers Centre. Adam Lind particularly bothers Niemann batting .423 with 2 HR in 26 at bats.
Tigers -120 (3 Units)
This line completely baffles me. The pitching match-up and comparison of lineups both clearly favor the Tigers here. Drew Smyly has been very impressive so far in his rookie season. He has allowed 2 runs or fewer in each of his first six starts. He's been averaging less than 2 walks per game and giving up 4.5 hits on average. He's hitting his spots and displaying some quality stuff. In his only start against the Sox, he gave up 7 hits, 2 ER, 0 BB, and fanned 7 batters in 6 IP. His counter-part John Danks is having the type of year that he'd love to forget. With a 5.89 ERA, he's lucky to have a 2-3 record. He's been giving up hits and walks galore. In his career against the Tigers he is 4-7; 5.04 ERA. There is not one player in the Detroit lineup or on the bench that has more than 3 at-bats against him that is not batting above .200. Austin Jackson particularly punishes Danks. It struck me a bit odd that the line for this game is -120 to the Tigers yet their -1.5 RL only pays off +125. That, to me, is a bit telling.
I may have another play to post later, still crunching the numbers.
Best of luck.
Yovanni Gallardo's stats are very deceiving. If you take away his two starts against the Cardinals, he's 2-1; 2.45 ERA this season. In his career against the Mets, he's been pretty average with a 2-2 record and 3.47 ERA. Keep in mind that Jose Reyes was somewhat of a nemesis and now he's a Marlin. David Wright is only batting .214 against Gallardo. The Mets are sending Miguel Batista to the mound today. There is not much that excites me about Batista. He's got a fastball that tops out around 91mph, an average breaking ball and change up, and a very hittable sinker. He is far from overpowering, and walks an average 3 batters per outing. The Brewers have the kind of lineup that should see his stuff pretty well, although they haven't seen much of this old veteran yet.
Blue Jays -135 (2 Units)
I've been riding the Brendan Morrow money train for a few weeks now, and I'll continue to do so here. In my opinion, this pitching match-up is very lop-sided. Morrow has been lights out lately (3-0; 0.43 ERA in last three starts). His command has been great, and his stuff has been electric. The Blue Jays bats have been a little cold lately, but at home they have the potential to put some runs on the board. Niemann is taking the mound for the Rays tonight. He has been pretty consistent so far this season, but one of his early hiccups happened in Toronto when he gave up 5 runs in 5 innings. His career ERA against the Blue Jays is 5.11, and its 5.21 at Rogers Centre. Adam Lind particularly bothers Niemann batting .423 with 2 HR in 26 at bats.
Tigers -120 (3 Units)
This line completely baffles me. The pitching match-up and comparison of lineups both clearly favor the Tigers here. Drew Smyly has been very impressive so far in his rookie season. He has allowed 2 runs or fewer in each of his first six starts. He's been averaging less than 2 walks per game and giving up 4.5 hits on average. He's hitting his spots and displaying some quality stuff. In his only start against the Sox, he gave up 7 hits, 2 ER, 0 BB, and fanned 7 batters in 6 IP. His counter-part John Danks is having the type of year that he'd love to forget. With a 5.89 ERA, he's lucky to have a 2-3 record. He's been giving up hits and walks galore. In his career against the Tigers he is 4-7; 5.04 ERA. There is not one player in the Detroit lineup or on the bench that has more than 3 at-bats against him that is not batting above .200. Austin Jackson particularly punishes Danks. It struck me a bit odd that the line for this game is -120 to the Tigers yet their -1.5 RL only pays off +125. That, to me, is a bit telling.
I may have another play to post later, still crunching the numbers.
Best of luck.
