2012 MLB O/U Record: 101-92-8, +$99
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104
This is a very good scenario right now so pay attention. Mentally (And how many times have I stressed that mindset is the most important thing in any type of gambling?), I feel good, as I can sense myself starting to creep up back to my normal 57-percent winning percentage after digging myself an early hole because of rust. As a result of those early-season struggles, I was pressing wayyy too much at times, being so concerned with my record and proving myself to everyone, since this is my first year posting here or on any type of forum, when I forgot that your BEST work, or at least in my case, is when you’re thinking this stuff out more naturally and having fun with it, which can sometimes be difficult when you do this literally every single day for the entire six-month baseball season. And all of you should know by now that when I do this analysis and breakdown work every single day, I go all out - as in, spending hours each day AND night coming up with my best over/unders from the daily slate. It can be very draining, though. Now that I’m back in my groove, coming off a week in which I was 21-8-1 and made over $700, I expect to keep it up, especially on this wonderful Monday, my favorite day of the week. In case you’re new to my articles, Monday is the one day of the week that is automatic for me; I was 68-35-6 on Monday over/unders last year, and 17-9 so far this season. There’s just something I love about Mondays that allows me to see it better than any other day of the week, so let’s hope this PROVEN YEARS-LONG trend continues another week…
San Diego Padres @ Washington Nationals (Best Bet) - $83 for $70
Tim Stauffer vs Ross Detwiler
UNDER 7
Normally, I wouldn’t label a game a best bet with such a big variable in it, and in this case, it’s Tim Stauffer making his somewhat long-awaited return off the disabled list (He went on the DL a little bit before Opening Day). After all, you can be the best player in the world, but a lengthy stint in the medical room, especially for a pitcher, has the potential to throw you off significantly enough mentally AND physically upon your return. Still, though, I’ve always liked Stauffer as an upper-end pitcher in the rotation, and he’s finally lived up to his potential ever since being a high draft pick (Fourth overall, if you were wondering) almost ten years ago. After all, this is a guy who has compiled a remarkable 3.23 ERA over the past three seasons when he got his first legitimate chance to be a big-league starter (He was rushed to the Majors in2005 before he was ready and struggled. That’s not a real opportunity). Even better, for this game at least, is that Stauffer has a wonderful track record against the Nationals, tossing 14 innings against them last year and only giving up one run on nine hits. He also walked seven, though, which is about the only thing I’m worried in a guy coming off the DL is his control. In our defense, though, he had ZERO walks in his 16 innings of work in the minor leagues during rehab starts, while posting a 1.72 ERA and striking out nine. In other words, his performance here will be based on his mentality; only he can determine how well he fares tonight. Considering I’ve always believed that he’s eventually become a mainstay upper echelon pitcher, I’m hoping his successful comeback should begin in his first start back.
Going for the Nats opposite Stauffer is Ross Detwiler, one of the most peculiar stories of the 2012 season. Of course, much was made of when he dethroned former ace John Lannan of his spot in the rotation, and he’s arguably pitched better than Lannan ever has in his long-tenured Nationals career. In fact, Detwiler is actually among the league leaders in ERA (2.10) and WHIP (1.02). That said, it SHOULD be academic that Detwiler continues this, or at least gives us a similar effort compared to one of his usual ones, matched up against the offensively-challenged Padres, although I had a weird vibe that Jesus Guzman might do some damage tonight somehow. Hmmm. Either way, Detwiler hasn’thad a bad outing this year so hopefully it’s not San Diego that knocks him off track (Since there’s no way Detwiler will keep up his current pace of unworldly pitching), and hopefully I’m right on consecutive Monday best bets about a guy making a successful return to their starting role (Eric Stults last week; Stauffer this week). Let’s nail it.
Tampa Bay Raysvs Toronto Blue Jays - $55 for $50 ($32 for $30 on O7.5, $23 for $20 onO8)
Jeff Niemann vs Brandon Morrow
OVER 7.5/8
It’s still mid-May, yet we have a somewhat rare occurrence, as it’s a matchup with two pitchers who are set to deal in settings they’ve already been in this year. In other words, Jeff Niemann will be pitching in Toronto for a second time this season, while Brandon Morrow makes his second home start against these same Rays. I note that because both of their initial outings in this same setting did not produce the best results, as Niemann gave up five runs (Two earned) his first time out versus the Blue Jays, while Morrow was tagged with his worst start of 2012 in surrendering six runs over six innings against this same Tampa Bay squad, while only striking out two, which is an abnormally to him. As much as I hate taking an over in a Brandon Morrow game, because the guy always has the potential to completely dominate each time out, when you take away his ability to strike out batters, you can get to him, and that’s how the Rays got to him on April 18. I’ve always respected Morrow’s potential and am glad for him that he’s finally starting to live up to his ace potential, but the Rays appear to know how to beat him, something they also did twice last year. Obviously there’s no Evan Longoria this time around but it’s something to consider; they make him throw the baseball and can get to him again.
Niemann, meanwhile, also has had his share of problems against his opponent for tonight- the Blue Jays scratched across eight runs in only 11 innings of work against him last year. He’s having a real solid year thus far (2-3, 3.48 ERA, 1.16 WHIP), which is about what you’d expect from him, keyword being “about.” His ERA usually sits closer to four, and we may begin seeing that deteriorate tonight. I’m banking on a 5-4 kind of game in this Monday night Toronto environment.
Seattle Mariners@ Boston Red Sox - $40 for $40
Jason Vargas vs Jon Lester
OVER 9
It can be tough scratching out an over in a Seattle Mariner game when the line is 8 or 9, especially when said Mariner team is 1-8 over its past nine with horrendous offensive production. Well, luckily for us, we’ve also got the Boston Red Sox involved in this one, and their hitters are starting to pick it up (Pedroia has a 14-game hitting streak, Will Middlebrooks has been off the charts, Adrian Gonzalez returning to top form, etc), and they’re only going to keep it going. A lot of people have been ripping on Boston and their slow start, but let’s be real: It’s still May, and they realize that more than anyone, which is why they’re getting hot and beginning to move up the standings. There’s so much talent there in that lineup that they can hit anyone on any given night, including tonight’s Mariner starter Jason Vargas. Yes, Vargas has been real good this year (4-2,2.79 ERA, 0.97 WHIP), and he’s been quietly good for a few years now. However, that’s a pace he will not keep up with it, and this looks like the perfect spot for him to be handed his first shellacking of the season.
On the other hand, it may be tough for the Mariners lineup to get going against Jon Lester. His season numbers would seem to indicate that he’s not doing that well (4.29 ERA and 1.36 WHIP), but we all know he’s much better than that. Unfortunately, while I like this over, it’s also hard to ignore the vibe I get from him having a nice outing tonight, but even if that happens, we can still score a win in this bet with a 8-2 type of outcome. I see something like 8-1 so hopefully it’s not slightly less, which I fear.
**May Add More Over/Unders Throughout Night Leading Up To Gametime**
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104
This is a very good scenario right now so pay attention. Mentally (And how many times have I stressed that mindset is the most important thing in any type of gambling?), I feel good, as I can sense myself starting to creep up back to my normal 57-percent winning percentage after digging myself an early hole because of rust. As a result of those early-season struggles, I was pressing wayyy too much at times, being so concerned with my record and proving myself to everyone, since this is my first year posting here or on any type of forum, when I forgot that your BEST work, or at least in my case, is when you’re thinking this stuff out more naturally and having fun with it, which can sometimes be difficult when you do this literally every single day for the entire six-month baseball season. And all of you should know by now that when I do this analysis and breakdown work every single day, I go all out - as in, spending hours each day AND night coming up with my best over/unders from the daily slate. It can be very draining, though. Now that I’m back in my groove, coming off a week in which I was 21-8-1 and made over $700, I expect to keep it up, especially on this wonderful Monday, my favorite day of the week. In case you’re new to my articles, Monday is the one day of the week that is automatic for me; I was 68-35-6 on Monday over/unders last year, and 17-9 so far this season. There’s just something I love about Mondays that allows me to see it better than any other day of the week, so let’s hope this PROVEN YEARS-LONG trend continues another week…
San Diego Padres @ Washington Nationals (Best Bet) - $83 for $70
Tim Stauffer vs Ross Detwiler
UNDER 7
Normally, I wouldn’t label a game a best bet with such a big variable in it, and in this case, it’s Tim Stauffer making his somewhat long-awaited return off the disabled list (He went on the DL a little bit before Opening Day). After all, you can be the best player in the world, but a lengthy stint in the medical room, especially for a pitcher, has the potential to throw you off significantly enough mentally AND physically upon your return. Still, though, I’ve always liked Stauffer as an upper-end pitcher in the rotation, and he’s finally lived up to his potential ever since being a high draft pick (Fourth overall, if you were wondering) almost ten years ago. After all, this is a guy who has compiled a remarkable 3.23 ERA over the past three seasons when he got his first legitimate chance to be a big-league starter (He was rushed to the Majors in2005 before he was ready and struggled. That’s not a real opportunity). Even better, for this game at least, is that Stauffer has a wonderful track record against the Nationals, tossing 14 innings against them last year and only giving up one run on nine hits. He also walked seven, though, which is about the only thing I’m worried in a guy coming off the DL is his control. In our defense, though, he had ZERO walks in his 16 innings of work in the minor leagues during rehab starts, while posting a 1.72 ERA and striking out nine. In other words, his performance here will be based on his mentality; only he can determine how well he fares tonight. Considering I’ve always believed that he’s eventually become a mainstay upper echelon pitcher, I’m hoping his successful comeback should begin in his first start back.
Going for the Nats opposite Stauffer is Ross Detwiler, one of the most peculiar stories of the 2012 season. Of course, much was made of when he dethroned former ace John Lannan of his spot in the rotation, and he’s arguably pitched better than Lannan ever has in his long-tenured Nationals career. In fact, Detwiler is actually among the league leaders in ERA (2.10) and WHIP (1.02). That said, it SHOULD be academic that Detwiler continues this, or at least gives us a similar effort compared to one of his usual ones, matched up against the offensively-challenged Padres, although I had a weird vibe that Jesus Guzman might do some damage tonight somehow. Hmmm. Either way, Detwiler hasn’thad a bad outing this year so hopefully it’s not San Diego that knocks him off track (Since there’s no way Detwiler will keep up his current pace of unworldly pitching), and hopefully I’m right on consecutive Monday best bets about a guy making a successful return to their starting role (Eric Stults last week; Stauffer this week). Let’s nail it.
Tampa Bay Raysvs Toronto Blue Jays - $55 for $50 ($32 for $30 on O7.5, $23 for $20 onO8)
Jeff Niemann vs Brandon Morrow
OVER 7.5/8
It’s still mid-May, yet we have a somewhat rare occurrence, as it’s a matchup with two pitchers who are set to deal in settings they’ve already been in this year. In other words, Jeff Niemann will be pitching in Toronto for a second time this season, while Brandon Morrow makes his second home start against these same Rays. I note that because both of their initial outings in this same setting did not produce the best results, as Niemann gave up five runs (Two earned) his first time out versus the Blue Jays, while Morrow was tagged with his worst start of 2012 in surrendering six runs over six innings against this same Tampa Bay squad, while only striking out two, which is an abnormally to him. As much as I hate taking an over in a Brandon Morrow game, because the guy always has the potential to completely dominate each time out, when you take away his ability to strike out batters, you can get to him, and that’s how the Rays got to him on April 18. I’ve always respected Morrow’s potential and am glad for him that he’s finally starting to live up to his ace potential, but the Rays appear to know how to beat him, something they also did twice last year. Obviously there’s no Evan Longoria this time around but it’s something to consider; they make him throw the baseball and can get to him again.
Niemann, meanwhile, also has had his share of problems against his opponent for tonight- the Blue Jays scratched across eight runs in only 11 innings of work against him last year. He’s having a real solid year thus far (2-3, 3.48 ERA, 1.16 WHIP), which is about what you’d expect from him, keyword being “about.” His ERA usually sits closer to four, and we may begin seeing that deteriorate tonight. I’m banking on a 5-4 kind of game in this Monday night Toronto environment.
Seattle Mariners@ Boston Red Sox - $40 for $40
Jason Vargas vs Jon Lester
OVER 9
It can be tough scratching out an over in a Seattle Mariner game when the line is 8 or 9, especially when said Mariner team is 1-8 over its past nine with horrendous offensive production. Well, luckily for us, we’ve also got the Boston Red Sox involved in this one, and their hitters are starting to pick it up (Pedroia has a 14-game hitting streak, Will Middlebrooks has been off the charts, Adrian Gonzalez returning to top form, etc), and they’re only going to keep it going. A lot of people have been ripping on Boston and their slow start, but let’s be real: It’s still May, and they realize that more than anyone, which is why they’re getting hot and beginning to move up the standings. There’s so much talent there in that lineup that they can hit anyone on any given night, including tonight’s Mariner starter Jason Vargas. Yes, Vargas has been real good this year (4-2,2.79 ERA, 0.97 WHIP), and he’s been quietly good for a few years now. However, that’s a pace he will not keep up with it, and this looks like the perfect spot for him to be handed his first shellacking of the season.
On the other hand, it may be tough for the Mariners lineup to get going against Jon Lester. His season numbers would seem to indicate that he’s not doing that well (4.29 ERA and 1.36 WHIP), but we all know he’s much better than that. Unfortunately, while I like this over, it’s also hard to ignore the vibe I get from him having a nice outing tonight, but even if that happens, we can still score a win in this bet with a 8-2 type of outcome. I see something like 8-1 so hopefully it’s not slightly less, which I fear.
**May Add More Over/Unders Throughout Night Leading Up To Gametime**
