Hello Everyone. I created a system last year to predict a 3 game series winner in MLB. If a 4 game series, only the first 3 games counted. I created it with the intention of playing only the "false dogs"; the dogs at +$ but predicted to win according to the formula. However, I tracked a number of different strategies and ended up using it for numerous other plays.
I broke it down to 3 different systems: False Dogs Game 1, False Dogs 3-Game Series, and -1.5 Run Line Game 1 plays. I started tracking false dogs from June 9 and -1.5 RL plays from July 1 and ended tracking for all of them on September 9th and/or 12th. Every play was +$ and I tracked it as risking 1 unit each play. The finals results were as follows:
2011/12
False Dogs G1: 42-22 +28.62 Units
False Dogs Series: 27-18 +16.64 Units
-1.5 RL G1: 91-73 +36.83 Units
Total: +82.09 Units (20 units per month avg.)
This is a very small sample and could have been the only few months the system made money, but those are the only stats I have for previous seasons. I have started tracking this year from May 1 and will keep more detailed stats for the 2012 season. (The predictions should get more accurate as the season goes, as most of the formulas are based on this seasons stats)
For 2012 - I have the same formulas going and can post all of my plays/leans for you. However, I am playing it a little differently this year. I have been doing a chase on each series, playing either the ML (if +$) or the RL on the team predicted to win (dog or not). Last year I only played game one of each series and often times the teams won game two or three, so I am going to risk a big loss in order to gain extra money along the way. So far it's working out well.
2012 (May1 - May13):
42-5 +27.02 Units
Game 1 Wins: 20
Game 2 Wins: 13
Game 3 Wins: 9
Loses: 5
I play each series as follows, stopping after a win:
G1: Risk $100
G2: Risk $200
G3: Risk $400
As you can see, one loss sets you back $700 and could really hurt your bankroll. However, winning a game two or game three could really help make up for some lost money elsewhere.
Anyway, that's enough talk for now, plays will be posted before the start of each 3/4 game series. The next plays should be on Wednesday the 16th.
I broke it down to 3 different systems: False Dogs Game 1, False Dogs 3-Game Series, and -1.5 Run Line Game 1 plays. I started tracking false dogs from June 9 and -1.5 RL plays from July 1 and ended tracking for all of them on September 9th and/or 12th. Every play was +$ and I tracked it as risking 1 unit each play. The finals results were as follows:
2011/12
False Dogs G1: 42-22 +28.62 Units
False Dogs Series: 27-18 +16.64 Units
-1.5 RL G1: 91-73 +36.83 Units
Total: +82.09 Units (20 units per month avg.)
This is a very small sample and could have been the only few months the system made money, but those are the only stats I have for previous seasons. I have started tracking this year from May 1 and will keep more detailed stats for the 2012 season. (The predictions should get more accurate as the season goes, as most of the formulas are based on this seasons stats)
For 2012 - I have the same formulas going and can post all of my plays/leans for you. However, I am playing it a little differently this year. I have been doing a chase on each series, playing either the ML (if +$) or the RL on the team predicted to win (dog or not). Last year I only played game one of each series and often times the teams won game two or three, so I am going to risk a big loss in order to gain extra money along the way. So far it's working out well.
2012 (May1 - May13):
42-5 +27.02 Units
Game 1 Wins: 20
Game 2 Wins: 13
Game 3 Wins: 9
Loses: 5
I play each series as follows, stopping after a win:
G1: Risk $100
G2: Risk $200
G3: Risk $400
As you can see, one loss sets you back $700 and could really hurt your bankroll. However, winning a game two or game three could really help make up for some lost money elsewhere.
Anyway, that's enough talk for now, plays will be posted before the start of each 3/4 game series. The next plays should be on Wednesday the 16th.
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