MLB Tuesday, 05/15/2012 "Undefeated System Play"

sportsforumVIP · May 15, 2012

5:05PM PST
Kansas City (Mazzaro) @ Texas (Lewis)

PLAY: Texas (Lewis) ML, -235
PLAY: Texas (Lewis) RL -1.5, -115

Since 08/22/2010..........

Texas is 21-0 (ROI=58.3%) on the "Money Line" as a favorite of more than 120 when they are off a loss as a favorite in which they stranded more runners than their opponent. During this stretch Texas has won by an average of 4.6 rpg.

Texas is 19-2 (ROI=93.8%) on the "Run Line" line as a favorite of more than 120 when they are off a loss as a favorite in which they stranded more runners than their opponent. During this stretch Texas has covered the run line by an average of 3.1 rpg.

FYI: The last game that fit this system was on Sunday, 05/13/2012 in which Texas defeated the LAA (Weaver) by a score of 13-6.

(<)<

sportsforumVIP · May 15, 2012

For those who would like a bigger sample size I will take this back exactly 10 years from today's date.

Since 05/15/2003..........

Texas is 37-11 (ROI=20.2%) on the "Money Line" as a favorite of more than 120 when they are off a loss as a favorite in which they stranded more runners than their opponent. During this stretch Texas has won by an average of 2.6 rpg.

Texas is 23-10 (ROI=49.0%) on the "Run Line" line as a favorite of more than 120 when they are off a loss as a favorite in which they stranded more runners than their opponent. During this stretch Texas has covered the run line by an average of 1.3 rpg.

jacksonjohn · May 15, 2012

Any chance you could make this a season long thread so we could subscribe to it? Miss you over in pops thread. Don't be a stranger.

sportsforumVIP · May 15, 2012

jacksonjohn said:
Any chance you could make this a season long thread so we could subscribe to it? Miss you over in pops thread. Don't be a stranger.

I just dont have the time to study a zillion pages of material to try to understand all the talk over there. I am sure the info is great in that thread though. I still take a peek in that thread daily I just dont understand what he has going on over there. Yeah, I will make a season long thread.

sportsforumVIP · May 15, 2012

Obviously the ML on Texas is quite high today. If so their is still excellent value on the RL as you can see with a higher "Return On Investment" historically so thats also a great play at a more manageable price.

colorado · May 15, 2012

thanks for the info, also agree with you regarding "pops" thread, its hard to follow, but every once in a while they throw a bit of info out there that is very helpful gl

sportsforumVIP · May 15, 2012

I have another pretty good play for tonight. I don't have the exact trend data specifics available at this time but I do have the past records of the play.

Since 05/15/2003, 10 years from today's date the records are as follows.....

ML: 14-6, +11.74 units, ROI=55.0%
RL: 13-5, +7.47 units, ROI=30.0%

4:10PM PST
Pittsburgh (Correia) @ Miami (Johnson)

PLAY: Pittsburgh (Correia) ML, +171
PLAY: Pittsburgh (Correia) RL +1.5, -140

sportsforumVIP · May 15, 2012

colorado said:
thanks for the info, also agree with you regarding "pops" thread, its hard to follow, but every once in a while they throw a bit of info out there that is very helpful gl

Very true. Once in a while their is good info but most of it is in a different language, if you know what I mean.

rolltide · May 15, 2012

i know JJ absolutely dominates the bucs. tex trend looks fantastic. thx for posting

sportsforumVIP · May 15, 2012

rolltide said:
i know JJ absolutely dominates the bucs. tex trend looks fantastic. thx for posting

True and I saw that but I am not sure how a pitcher, Johnson, who has 0-3 with a 5.87 ERA this season is going to turn it on tonight because of the color of the oppositions uniform. I understand your logic but this statistical data has nothing to do with head to head matchups. The Texas trend does look pretty good, your right, and hopefully it continues. BOL Tide.

sportsforumVIP · May 15, 2012

rolltide said:
i know JJ absolutely dominates the bucs. tex trend looks fantastic. thx for posting

Correia also dominated on the road last season posting a record of 10-3 with a sub 3 ERA so its a wash imo. As I said this data has nothing to do with a zillion other stats that are out there floating around.

rolltide · May 15, 2012

sportsforumVIP said:
True and I saw that but I am not sure how a pitcher, Johnson, who has 0-3 with a 5.87 ERA this season is going to turn it on tonight because of the color of the oppositions uniform. I understand your logic but this statistical data has nothing to do with head to head matchups. The Texas trend does look pretty good, your right, and hopefully it continues. BOL Tide.

was going after his dominance of the pirates hitters not uniform color

only 1 bucco hitting above .250 L5 years against him.

theoretically all you need is 2 runs. i believes bucs now 17-6 when scoring at least 2

varkeyboy · May 15, 2012

sportsforumVIP said:
I just dont have the time to study a zillion pages of material to try to understand all the talk over there. I am sure the info is great in that thread though. I still take a peek in that thread daily I just dont understand what he has going on over there. Yeah, I will make a season long thread.

BOY!!! I'm glad SOMEONE agrees with me. Just too much garbage to sort through over there.

sportsforumVIP · May 15, 2012

rolltide said:
was going after his dominance of the pirates hitters not uniform color

only 1 bucco hitting above .250 L5 years against him.

theoretically all you need is 2 runs. i believes bucs now 17-6 when scoring at least 2

lol...I know tide, sorry was just being sarcastic. BOL to you.

sportsforumVIP · May 15, 2012

varkeyboy said:
BOY!!! I'm glad SOMEONE agrees with me. Just too much garbage to sort through over there.

If your not in the loop there is no reason to visit that thread imo. It would take you months to read and digest everything thats going on over there but I wish them the best of luck! I opened the "master" download on post #1 and it would take me 2 days to read it and 2 months to half-way understand it..lol

sportsforumVIP · May 15, 2012

varkeyboy said:
BOY!!! I'm glad SOMEONE agrees with me. Just too much garbage to sort through over there.

Can someone please translate post #3787 in that particular thread? LMAO

sportsforumVIP · May 15, 2012

sportsforumVIP said:
For those who would like a bigger sample size I will take this back exactly 10 years from today's date.

Since 05/15/2003..........

Texas is 37-11 (ROI=20.2%) on the "Money Line" as a favorite of more than 120 when they are off a loss as a favorite in which they stranded more runners than their opponent. During this stretch Texas has won by an average of 2.6 rpg.

Texas is 23-10 (ROI=49.0%) on the "Run Line" line as a favorite of more than 120 when they are off a loss as a favorite in which they stranded more runners than their opponent. During this stretch Texas has covered the run line by an average of 1.3 rpg.

sportsforumVIP said:
I have another pretty good play for tonight. I don't have the exact trend data specifics available at this time but I do have the past records of the play.

Since 05/15/2003, 10 years from today's date the records are as follows.....

ML: 14-6, +11.74 units, ROI=55.0%
RL: 13-5, +7.47 units, ROI=30.0%

4:10PM PST
Pittsburgh (Correia) @ Miami (Johnson)

PLAY: Pittsburgh (Correia) ML, +171
PLAY: Pittsburgh (Correia) RL +1.5, -140

FYI: I am going to risk 5 units on the Pittsburgh ML and 10 units on the Texas RL do the the high ML cost. Play as you wish everyone or not at all...BOL!

jacksonjohn · May 15, 2012

sportsforumVIP said:
5:05PM PST
Kansas City (Mazzaro) @ Texas (Lewis)

PLAY: Texas (Lewis) ML, -235
PLAY: Texas (Lewis) RL -1.5, -115

Since 08/22/2010..........

Texas is 21-0 (ROI=58.3%) on the "Money Line" as a favorite of more than 120 when they are off a loss as a favorite in which they stranded more runners than their opponent. During this stretch Texas has won by an average of 4.6 rpg.

Texas is 19-2 (ROI=93.8%) on the "Run Line" line as a favorite of more than 120 when they are off a loss as a favorite in which they stranded more runners than their opponent. During this stretch Texas has covered the run line by an average of 3.1 rpg.

FYI: The last game that fit this system was on Sunday, 05/13/2012 in which Texas defeated the LAA (Weaver) by a score of 13-6.

(<)<

What is your overall view of "systems" plays? I used to get all excited about systems or trends like the above and then I would read somewhere else different systems that would support the opposing team. There would be literally dozens of these supporting each side. I guess you would call it back fitting where someone finds supporting data to bolster their pick. You seem like an intelligent guy who's had some measure of success so I would value your opinion.

rolltide · May 15, 2012

jacksonjohn said:
What is your overall view of "systems" plays? I used to get all excited about systems or trends like the above and then I would read somewhere else different systems that would support the opposing team. There would be literally dozens of these supporting each side. I guess you would call it back fitting where someone finds supporting data to bolster their pick. You seem like an intelligent guy who's had some measure of success so I would value your opinion.

you mean like this?

MLB KANSAS CITY at TEXAS

Play Against - Home teams (TEXAS) very good AL offensive team (>=5.7 runs/game) against a team with a good bullpen (ERA<=3.75), with a starting pitcher whose gives up 1 or more HR's/start.
33-16 since 1997. ( 67.3% 23.3 units )

jacksonjohn · May 15, 2012

rolltide said:
you mean like this?

MLB KANSAS CITY at TEXAS

Play Against - Home teams (TEXAS) very good AL offensive team (>=5.7 runs/game) against a team with a good bullpen (ERA<=3.75), with a starting pitcher whose gives up 1 or more HR's/start.
33-16 since 1997. ( 67.3% 23.3 units )

Exactly. Nice catch.

MLB Tuesday, 05/15/2012 "Undefeated System Play"

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