2012 MLB O/U Record: 104-97-8, -$55
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104
Disappointing 2-3 night last night, and as usual, I was absolutely screwed in a big-sized bet (Since the only time I lose a bet of that amount is by rare fluke bullshit that makes no sense) in my perfectly-analyzed Miley vs Billingsley over 6, in which there were 30 baserunners (30 baserunners in an over of 6!! Let that sink in: 30 BASERUNNERS. Is this the first game in MLB betting history where an over of 6 didn't go over with that many on the basepaths?), as a result of 23 hits and 7 combined walks. Furthermore, Chad Billingsley, the superior pitcher in this matchup, got rocked and lasted only four innings, yet under bettors were somehow rewarded? I was even one measly run off predicting the EXACT SCORE of the game, in saying it would be 5-2. Final score? 5-1. Unfortunately, most of my bet was on over 6.5, so I was punished for being 100-percent right on a big bet. Yeah, that’s fair. There’s a saying that “all beats even out in the end,” but it’s going to take MANY “good” breaks over the next few months to atone for the countless bad ones I’ve had this season. In fact, I’ve had very few rare good ones go my way, but certainly, they are at least a couple of dozen off from the bad ones I have received. Unbelievable. I don’t recall a season having so many bizarre strange occurrences happening, but you keep your head up and you move on to the next day, that being the toughest day of the week for me, Wednesday…
**Dollar Amounts To Be Posted Later Leading Up To Gametime**
Seattle Mariners @ Cleveland Indians (BestBet)
Felix Hernandez vs Ubaldo Jimenez
UNDER 7.5
If this pitching matchup happened in Seattle two years ago, at the height of Ubaldo Jimenez’s career, and with today’s trigger-happy linesmakers who just love giving out lines of 6 and 6.5, I believe this game may have had a shot of getting the ultra-rare tag of 5.5. Yes, that’s how good Ubaldo was at one point, and it’s strange to think of how much he has dropped off in such a relatively short time span. This is a guy who caught the country’s attention when he was 11-1 with a 0.93 ERA in JUNE of 2010 (!), leading some to believe at the time that his chase for immortality that season was bigger than the entire then-oncoming World Cup. Yes, it’s been a mighty fall for Mr. Jimenez, as he’s now on a different team with a whole set of different numbers, and not pretty ones at that - 3-3, 5.17 ERA, 1.78 WHIP, and 30 walks in 40 innings. Eww. But, at the same time, this is a guy who I feel I have suddenly conquered, in that I’m able to anticipate how he’s going to do in his starts when I lock in on him. After all, I was a solid 4-2-1 on his over/unders last year, and am 3-1 with him thus far in 2012, the one loss being his first start of the year against Brandon Morrow when I had under 8 in a game where he twirled a 7-inning, 1-hit, 2-run gem, so I SHOULD actually be 4-0 with him this year (What a surprise, another awful break that went against me despite being 100-percent right. The game was 2-2 entering the 9th inning with five combined hits!). He’s coming off his worst start of the year in Boston (Which is more than acceptable to get hit there), but if you take a look at his game log, he has a unique pattern where he’ll have one suspect start, and then follow it up with a very nice outing. Jimenez has always had the stuff; it’s just a matter of keeping it in the strike zone. Hopefully he realizes that as long as he throws strikes against this Mariners offense that has been putrid over the past two weeks, he’ll be in very good shape for a quality start.
Felix Hernandez, meanwhile, is someone I am far from having conquered, as he was somehow one of my worst pitchers to bet on last year, finishing up at 3-7-1.This year, at least, I’ve started out 2-1 on him (The one loss actually being al egitimate one), which hopefully should continue, since King Felix should be as automatic as anyone when it comes to taking his unders. I believe I have picked a very good spot for him, as besides having a strong vibe on the under, there is a noticeable trend here concerning the former American League Cy Young: In every instance except one, each time Hernandez has given up four runs or more in a start since 2010, he followed up in his very next start by giving up three runs or less, most of which were easily less than three. Furthermore, the one instance where this did not occur was last year… when he faced Boston and Texas in back-to-back starts. At least in this scenario, he draws Cleveland, a team he has made 11 career starts against, and registered a 2.49 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, to go along with 78 strikeouts in 72 innings. That more than qualifies as a great track record against one opponent. I expect the King to bounce back, as he clearly takes pride in what he does as much as any other pitcher out there, based on his consistent emotional reactions on the mound and quotes I’ve read, so it's safe to assume his normal outing here. 5-2/5-3 should be the worst-case scenario.
Boston Red Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays
Clay Buchholz vs Jeremy Hellickson
OVER 8.5
A little surprised the line is 8.5 and not 9, as I think Vegas is giving both pitchers a little too much credit in this specific matchup, especially with the hot Boston Red Sox offense involved. First, we all know about the seemingly self-destruction of Clay Buchholz, who has been nothing short of terrible this year. In fact, he’s given up AT LEAST five runs or more in six of his seven starts. Yikes. The silver lining for him, however, is that the one start he gave up less than five, was in his last start, which concerns me a bit for this over. However, this is a guy who I always said was overrated, even years ago when he drew so much attention for throwing a no-hitter in only his second career start, but I was just never impressed with him. He’s put up some good years in the recent past, leading me to believe that I was 100-percent wrong on him, but this year he’s starting to morph into the overrated pitcher I always thought he’d be - albeit not this bad. I’m sure when the season is said and done, his numbers will creep closer into the 4.00 ERA territory, as it currently stands at a disgusting 8.31. His WHIP might even be worse, if that’s possible, sitting just a shade under two at 1.97. Let’s hope the Rays can help that version of Clay Buchholz re-emerge, as their offense has been handling itself decently without stars Evan Longoria and Desmond Jennings.
The main factor we need for this over to hit will be an off start from Jeremy Hellickson, which might be very tough to get, considering, well, he’s only had one in six starts this year. The good news, though? That one off start came against Boston only a month ago, when he was tattooed for five runs in five innings, giving up three home runs in the process. It’s no secret how good Hellickson is, as last year’s American League Rookie of the Year owns a very impressive 2012 statline of 3-0 with a 2.95 ERA and 1.24 WHIP, but there are numbers to indicate he’ll be falling off that pace sooner than later. If you analyze his sabermetrics, such as FIP (Fielding Independent Percentage, which takes into account home runs allowed, walks, hit batters, and strikeouts), all of that points to him regressing at some point, as he gives up an unusually high number of gopher balls for a kid with such a low ERA (8 so far this year, 21 last year), and his walk rate is a bit up there, too. I mean, I’m not one that likes to over-analyze pitchers, as I think MENTALITY is the most important thing, even more than the standard stats we are accustomed to reviewing, but alot of sabermetric articles I’ve read from this year and last all identify Hellickson as a likely candidate to see his numbers drop considerably in the near-future. Considering he has struggled against Boston before, and with their lineup hitting its peak rightnow, maybe this is the perfect spot for a suddenly vulnerable Hell Boy to appear. Also throw in the fact that this is an ESPN Wednesday Night game and maybe that will affect him, or Buchholz, as well. In any case, I'm banking on a live 6-4 kind of game.
Other 5/16 MLB Over/Unders I’m Taking
Mike Leake vs Johan Santana UNDER 7.5
Erik Bedard vs Gio Gonzalez UNDER 6.5
Tommy Hunter vs Felipe Paulino OVER 8.5
**May Add More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104
Disappointing 2-3 night last night, and as usual, I was absolutely screwed in a big-sized bet (Since the only time I lose a bet of that amount is by rare fluke bullshit that makes no sense) in my perfectly-analyzed Miley vs Billingsley over 6, in which there were 30 baserunners (30 baserunners in an over of 6!! Let that sink in: 30 BASERUNNERS. Is this the first game in MLB betting history where an over of 6 didn't go over with that many on the basepaths?), as a result of 23 hits and 7 combined walks. Furthermore, Chad Billingsley, the superior pitcher in this matchup, got rocked and lasted only four innings, yet under bettors were somehow rewarded? I was even one measly run off predicting the EXACT SCORE of the game, in saying it would be 5-2. Final score? 5-1. Unfortunately, most of my bet was on over 6.5, so I was punished for being 100-percent right on a big bet. Yeah, that’s fair. There’s a saying that “all beats even out in the end,” but it’s going to take MANY “good” breaks over the next few months to atone for the countless bad ones I’ve had this season. In fact, I’ve had very few rare good ones go my way, but certainly, they are at least a couple of dozen off from the bad ones I have received. Unbelievable. I don’t recall a season having so many bizarre strange occurrences happening, but you keep your head up and you move on to the next day, that being the toughest day of the week for me, Wednesday…
**Dollar Amounts To Be Posted Later Leading Up To Gametime**
Seattle Mariners @ Cleveland Indians (BestBet)
Felix Hernandez vs Ubaldo Jimenez
UNDER 7.5
If this pitching matchup happened in Seattle two years ago, at the height of Ubaldo Jimenez’s career, and with today’s trigger-happy linesmakers who just love giving out lines of 6 and 6.5, I believe this game may have had a shot of getting the ultra-rare tag of 5.5. Yes, that’s how good Ubaldo was at one point, and it’s strange to think of how much he has dropped off in such a relatively short time span. This is a guy who caught the country’s attention when he was 11-1 with a 0.93 ERA in JUNE of 2010 (!), leading some to believe at the time that his chase for immortality that season was bigger than the entire then-oncoming World Cup. Yes, it’s been a mighty fall for Mr. Jimenez, as he’s now on a different team with a whole set of different numbers, and not pretty ones at that - 3-3, 5.17 ERA, 1.78 WHIP, and 30 walks in 40 innings. Eww. But, at the same time, this is a guy who I feel I have suddenly conquered, in that I’m able to anticipate how he’s going to do in his starts when I lock in on him. After all, I was a solid 4-2-1 on his over/unders last year, and am 3-1 with him thus far in 2012, the one loss being his first start of the year against Brandon Morrow when I had under 8 in a game where he twirled a 7-inning, 1-hit, 2-run gem, so I SHOULD actually be 4-0 with him this year (What a surprise, another awful break that went against me despite being 100-percent right. The game was 2-2 entering the 9th inning with five combined hits!). He’s coming off his worst start of the year in Boston (Which is more than acceptable to get hit there), but if you take a look at his game log, he has a unique pattern where he’ll have one suspect start, and then follow it up with a very nice outing. Jimenez has always had the stuff; it’s just a matter of keeping it in the strike zone. Hopefully he realizes that as long as he throws strikes against this Mariners offense that has been putrid over the past two weeks, he’ll be in very good shape for a quality start.
Felix Hernandez, meanwhile, is someone I am far from having conquered, as he was somehow one of my worst pitchers to bet on last year, finishing up at 3-7-1.This year, at least, I’ve started out 2-1 on him (The one loss actually being al egitimate one), which hopefully should continue, since King Felix should be as automatic as anyone when it comes to taking his unders. I believe I have picked a very good spot for him, as besides having a strong vibe on the under, there is a noticeable trend here concerning the former American League Cy Young: In every instance except one, each time Hernandez has given up four runs or more in a start since 2010, he followed up in his very next start by giving up three runs or less, most of which were easily less than three. Furthermore, the one instance where this did not occur was last year… when he faced Boston and Texas in back-to-back starts. At least in this scenario, he draws Cleveland, a team he has made 11 career starts against, and registered a 2.49 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, to go along with 78 strikeouts in 72 innings. That more than qualifies as a great track record against one opponent. I expect the King to bounce back, as he clearly takes pride in what he does as much as any other pitcher out there, based on his consistent emotional reactions on the mound and quotes I’ve read, so it's safe to assume his normal outing here. 5-2/5-3 should be the worst-case scenario.
Boston Red Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays
Clay Buchholz vs Jeremy Hellickson
OVER 8.5
A little surprised the line is 8.5 and not 9, as I think Vegas is giving both pitchers a little too much credit in this specific matchup, especially with the hot Boston Red Sox offense involved. First, we all know about the seemingly self-destruction of Clay Buchholz, who has been nothing short of terrible this year. In fact, he’s given up AT LEAST five runs or more in six of his seven starts. Yikes. The silver lining for him, however, is that the one start he gave up less than five, was in his last start, which concerns me a bit for this over. However, this is a guy who I always said was overrated, even years ago when he drew so much attention for throwing a no-hitter in only his second career start, but I was just never impressed with him. He’s put up some good years in the recent past, leading me to believe that I was 100-percent wrong on him, but this year he’s starting to morph into the overrated pitcher I always thought he’d be - albeit not this bad. I’m sure when the season is said and done, his numbers will creep closer into the 4.00 ERA territory, as it currently stands at a disgusting 8.31. His WHIP might even be worse, if that’s possible, sitting just a shade under two at 1.97. Let’s hope the Rays can help that version of Clay Buchholz re-emerge, as their offense has been handling itself decently without stars Evan Longoria and Desmond Jennings.
The main factor we need for this over to hit will be an off start from Jeremy Hellickson, which might be very tough to get, considering, well, he’s only had one in six starts this year. The good news, though? That one off start came against Boston only a month ago, when he was tattooed for five runs in five innings, giving up three home runs in the process. It’s no secret how good Hellickson is, as last year’s American League Rookie of the Year owns a very impressive 2012 statline of 3-0 with a 2.95 ERA and 1.24 WHIP, but there are numbers to indicate he’ll be falling off that pace sooner than later. If you analyze his sabermetrics, such as FIP (Fielding Independent Percentage, which takes into account home runs allowed, walks, hit batters, and strikeouts), all of that points to him regressing at some point, as he gives up an unusually high number of gopher balls for a kid with such a low ERA (8 so far this year, 21 last year), and his walk rate is a bit up there, too. I mean, I’m not one that likes to over-analyze pitchers, as I think MENTALITY is the most important thing, even more than the standard stats we are accustomed to reviewing, but alot of sabermetric articles I’ve read from this year and last all identify Hellickson as a likely candidate to see his numbers drop considerably in the near-future. Considering he has struggled against Boston before, and with their lineup hitting its peak rightnow, maybe this is the perfect spot for a suddenly vulnerable Hell Boy to appear. Also throw in the fact that this is an ESPN Wednesday Night game and maybe that will affect him, or Buchholz, as well. In any case, I'm banking on a live 6-4 kind of game.
Other 5/16 MLB Over/Unders I’m Taking
Mike Leake vs Johan Santana UNDER 7.5
Erik Bedard vs Gio Gonzalez UNDER 6.5
Tommy Hunter vs Felipe Paulino OVER 8.5
**May Add More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**
