The Cat's MLB Over/Under Bets & Detailed Writeups - May 17, 2012 - YTD: 105-102-8

CatsOverUnders · May 17, 2012

2012 MLB O/U Record: 105-102-8, -$329
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104

Just a very demoralizing 1-5 day yesterday that was my second worst of the season, which of course featured some bad breaks as well (Leake vs Santana under was 3-2 in the eighth inning; yet another bullpen breakdown). I apologize, as aperformance like that in general is just inexcusable, especially from me. Concerning that Hernandez vs Jimenez under, that’s what King Felix gives us after owning the Indians his whole career? I guess that’s why I was 3-7-1 on his over/unders last year. Unfortunately, I was really rattled by Wednesday (Which, as I warn you guys every week, is my worst day of the week. Need to show more discipline) and it affected my mindset for Thursday so I don’t think there will be any big bets today, as I just look for some small wins to reclaim my confidence for the weekend.

(Posting this early because I have one of the early games. I’ll add my more-detailed write-ups later)

PJ Walters vs Doug Fister UNDER 8.5 - $28 for $25
Just a bit of a smaller bet to get my feet wet on this Thursday. Thus far in his return from the disabled list, Doug Fister has been on absolute cruise control, yielding only one run over 13 innings in two starts, albeit against the Mariners and Athletics. Still, though, it’s as if he picked up his effectiveness right where he last left off, and clearing that hurdle right away puts him an excellent frame of mind. Therefore, he should be in his usual top form going up against one of the weaker offenses in the American League. The big concern here will be the arm of PJ Walters, who seemingly arose from the dead to re-appear in the Minnesota rotation, and actually looked pretty good his first time out against the tough Toronto Blue Jays. I like the angle he’s coming from, being a guy who fizzled out of the Majors with the Cardinals, and is getting a second chance to succeed. If he gives us a decent effort, which I believe he can, to go along with a gem from Fister, we should nail this under.

I’llb e back a bit later with my other over/unders on today’s card, with longer write-ups.

CatsOverUnders · May 17, 2012

Adding:

Chris Sale vs CJ Wilson UNDER 7 - $21 for $20
The journey of Chris Sale this season has been quite fascinating, and I don't recall any other pitcher going through such a bizarre journey. From successful starter (At least for the first month) to closer for a week, back to being a starter. It's obvious he has the skillset to be a good big-league starter, as he's proven in his short time thus far, and based on some quotes I read from him, he has the passion and mindset for it also, since it was mostly because of him lobbying to Robin Ventura concerning him getting back into the rotation. CJ Wilson is what we already know - a terrific starting pitcher who hopefully produces his usual quality start in this ballgame.

CatsOverUnders · May 17, 2012

New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays
Phil Hughes vs Drew Hutchison
OVER 9.5

I’m not sure yet if this is going to end up being my “best bet,” as I’m still not completely sure of my gameplan for tonight’s over/unders, but there’s still some solid potential here. Obviously we know both lineups can hammer the baseball, it’s common knowledge they’re up there as two of the top ten offenses in the league. The key is, will both pitchers easily give in to the opposing batting orders? First, there is Phil Hughes, who at once, was a can’t-missprospect that Yankee fans would rave about. Nowadays, the only thing that’s “can’t-miss”about him is the bats he faces. In his defense, though, Hughes is coming off his best start of the season (And arguably his only good one) in tossing seven nearly flawless innings of one-run ball while scattering only six hits and striking out four. There’s one major flaw in Hughes’ approach, and it’s been this way throughout his still-young Major League career: He throws WAYYY too many pitches. He’s a nibbler, and until he improves his control, that is a characteristic that will do him in more times than not. There’s no denying Hughes has tremendous stuff, which is why he was once such a high-end prospect, but clearly, he is not aggressive enough to last deeper in games. When that changes, he’ll be a very nice pitcher, something he has shown shades of (Ex. Almost throwing a no-hitter in Texas a few years ago), but at this point in time, he has shown little to no consistency. Win or lose, I’m curious to see what further developments he makes after his first great start in awhile.

Then there is Drew Hutchison, who I can honestly say I don’t know much about. There are very few pitchers in all of Major League Baseball that I have not watched nor heard much of, and Mr. Hutchison is of the rare breed who fall under that department. That said, that just might make this over a little bit more tougher, not because of my own opinion, but because in a very strange trend, the New York Yankees sometimes find themselves completely silent on theo ffensive end against unknown pitchers. You guys living in other areas of the country MAY have noticed this weird pattern, but for someone like me who lives in New York, it is something often joked about by Yankee fans that they struggle a lot against “unknown scrubs.” Of course, Hutchison could develop into much more than that, but at this point in time, it’s hard for the general public to perceive him as otherwise considering he has a 5.53 ERA and 1.52 WHIP. Ouch. There have been some bright spots, though, as he hurled six innings in his last start against Minnesota while only surrendering three hits and one run. Considering this game will be broadcast on MLB Network’s Thursday Night Baseball (That’s always a variable), I think that will help our odds a bit and perhaps cause Hutchison to crumble under the pressure while facing the mighty Yankees’ behemoths at the plate, since seemingly every pitcher thinks twice when going up against them. 7-3/6-4 sounds like the safest predicted outcome.

CatsOverUnders · May 17, 2012

*And I will be adding more games throughout the day leading up to gametime.

varkeyboy · May 17, 2012

My White Sox could blow the under here in the 9th....

CatsOverUnders · May 17, 2012

Final $$ amounts for my 7 o'clock games...

Hughes vs Hutchison OVER 9.5 - $42 for $40
Doubront vs Moore OVER 8.5 - $28 for $25
McDonald vs Zimmerman UNDER 6 - $17 for $15

CatsOverUnders · May 17, 2012

Added another 11 for 10 on Doubront vs Moore over

CatsOverUnders · May 17, 2012

Adding:

Shaun Marcum vs JA Happ UNDER 7.5 - $23 for $23 (Happ one of my top three favorite pitchers)

darkstar77 · May 17, 2012

I totally respect how much time and effort you put into your research and write ups but I have to say again I really think you need to factor bullpens more into your research. Bullpens come into play 99% of the time but you seem to only focus on the starters...With that being said I love your write ups and wish you the BOL. :toast:

CatsOverUnders · May 18, 2012

darkstar77 said:
I totally respect how much time and effort you put into your research and write ups but I have to say again I really think you need to factor bullpens more into your research. Bullpens come into play 99% of the time but you seem to only focus on the starters...With that being said I love your write ups and wish you the BOL. :toast:

You could absolutely be right. Considering there's been so many bullpen collapses this year - definitely more so than any other year, perhaps the most in Major League history thus far - it could be that I need to make an adjustment even after the awesome success I had last year with this same exact technique. But at this point in time, I'm not just yet. I appreciate the advice, but as I've said, I'm very stubborn, especially when it comes to altering a routine of mine that I've done for awhile (I'm a creature of habit), so I'm still going to stick with my extra full emphasis on the starters (I do consider bullpens a bit, at least), or at least for now.

Today's thread to be posted in a bit, as I have this afternoon's White Sox/Cubs affair on my card