To bet the battered Preakness?
Chad Millman
ESPN INSIDER
They say the Kentucky Derby drew more bets this year than any other in its 138-year history. That's $133.1 million in handle, with $12.3 million of that from the also-record crowd of 165,000 people at the track. It's hard not to get jazzed about the Derby, whether or not you like hats or juleps or bugles (clearly the first Saturday in May is some kind of fetishist's dream come true). Horses are majestic and elegant at the same time, a feat that can be achieved only by a large animal carrying a small man and running with all four feet off the ground. It is truly a shame that the sport is dying, that the horses are dying, that the premium cable network show about horses has died, all seemingly for the same reason: neglect, in some form or another.
This was a strange year for the Derby to reach a new peak, given the dim and dire recent front-page news about the state of the industry and its main engines. But it happened to be a perfect storm for fans: a morning line favorite, Bodemeister, who hadn't raced much and carried a lot of questions; a full field, which makes bettors feel confident anything can happen; and a handful of relative long shots who most people perceived as being just a horseshoe's width worse than Bode. "Plus a big fight in Las Vegas, too," says Wynn bookmaker John Avello. "That makes for lots of betting. We had chandelier-room only, meaning anyone who wanted in had to hang from the lights."
A Derby trip is random, which is part of the excitement, part of the mystery that makes it anyone's race. Everyone loved Union Rags heading into the race. But right out of the gate he took a little bit of a push, fell to the back and never recovered. He had a bad trip. Meanwhile, I'll Have Another started at 19, found a nice clean route and beat out a fading favorite who had spent most of the race setting the pace with super fractions. The start, the trip, the length of the race all conspired and, a couple of minutes later, I'll Have Another was draped in roses.
I wish I could say the Derby was a turnaround moment for horse racing. But there will be no bounce. Think of it as a Facebook ad: Everyone sees it, everyone talks about it, but no one really acts on it. Which brings us to the poor Preakness.
The jet stream from the Derby will have long disappeared by post time Saturday. Part of the problem is the race itself. The field is half as big as the Derby, so there go twice the options to get people excited. And, after losing the Derby, a lot of the top 3-year-olds take a break, looking ahead to Belmont or the stakes races beyond. So instead of Union Rags, we've got Cozzetti. Instead of Dullahan, we've got Teeth of the Dog.
"These are horses that never would have been in the Derby," says Avello. Plus, it's a shorter race, which means Bodemeister, who ran beautifully for three-quarters of the Derby, is a prohibitive favorite in a weaker field. "The turns are tighter," says Avello. "You want to be in the top four or five spots early because if not, it becomes more difficult, because front-runners have an advantage. It is a speed track, and those turns don't allow for horses to be on the outside and get position."
"Honestly, I may skip the race as far as betting," says Avello. "Bodemeister is the best bet, but the odds are too short for me and that is not my style."
See that, people. John Avello, the bookmaker at the Wynn, a man who practically grew up at Saratoga racetrack, may not bet the Preakness. If the pro's pro can't be lured into throwing a couple of bucks down on the race, the masses can't be expected to either. So I asked Avello: What would it take? If horse racing can capture everyone's imagination for one Saturday from Louisville, why not every Saturday from Arlington or Santa Anita or Calder?
The answer is this: Make betting easier. These days, hard-core race fans are the people who had the love passed down from their fathers or grandfathers. They practiced math by calculating exactas. But we are a math-weary point-spread nation when it comes to sports. We are a luck-of-the-draw, big-score nation when it comes to payouts. Avello offered up two options:
1. "Offer a bet of how many lengths the winning horse will win by. It's the nearest thing to a point spread we are going to get."
2. "Make it like a lottery: Pick the winner of any race and you win a million bucks."
If the racing associations wanted to make a go of these, it may be a step toward making the Derby handle seem like chump change.
Chad Millman
ESPN INSIDER
They say the Kentucky Derby drew more bets this year than any other in its 138-year history. That's $133.1 million in handle, with $12.3 million of that from the also-record crowd of 165,000 people at the track. It's hard not to get jazzed about the Derby, whether or not you like hats or juleps or bugles (clearly the first Saturday in May is some kind of fetishist's dream come true). Horses are majestic and elegant at the same time, a feat that can be achieved only by a large animal carrying a small man and running with all four feet off the ground. It is truly a shame that the sport is dying, that the horses are dying, that the premium cable network show about horses has died, all seemingly for the same reason: neglect, in some form or another.
This was a strange year for the Derby to reach a new peak, given the dim and dire recent front-page news about the state of the industry and its main engines. But it happened to be a perfect storm for fans: a morning line favorite, Bodemeister, who hadn't raced much and carried a lot of questions; a full field, which makes bettors feel confident anything can happen; and a handful of relative long shots who most people perceived as being just a horseshoe's width worse than Bode. "Plus a big fight in Las Vegas, too," says Wynn bookmaker John Avello. "That makes for lots of betting. We had chandelier-room only, meaning anyone who wanted in had to hang from the lights."
A Derby trip is random, which is part of the excitement, part of the mystery that makes it anyone's race. Everyone loved Union Rags heading into the race. But right out of the gate he took a little bit of a push, fell to the back and never recovered. He had a bad trip. Meanwhile, I'll Have Another started at 19, found a nice clean route and beat out a fading favorite who had spent most of the race setting the pace with super fractions. The start, the trip, the length of the race all conspired and, a couple of minutes later, I'll Have Another was draped in roses.
I wish I could say the Derby was a turnaround moment for horse racing. But there will be no bounce. Think of it as a Facebook ad: Everyone sees it, everyone talks about it, but no one really acts on it. Which brings us to the poor Preakness.
The jet stream from the Derby will have long disappeared by post time Saturday. Part of the problem is the race itself. The field is half as big as the Derby, so there go twice the options to get people excited. And, after losing the Derby, a lot of the top 3-year-olds take a break, looking ahead to Belmont or the stakes races beyond. So instead of Union Rags, we've got Cozzetti. Instead of Dullahan, we've got Teeth of the Dog.
"These are horses that never would have been in the Derby," says Avello. Plus, it's a shorter race, which means Bodemeister, who ran beautifully for three-quarters of the Derby, is a prohibitive favorite in a weaker field. "The turns are tighter," says Avello. "You want to be in the top four or five spots early because if not, it becomes more difficult, because front-runners have an advantage. It is a speed track, and those turns don't allow for horses to be on the outside and get position."
"Honestly, I may skip the race as far as betting," says Avello. "Bodemeister is the best bet, but the odds are too short for me and that is not my style."
See that, people. John Avello, the bookmaker at the Wynn, a man who practically grew up at Saratoga racetrack, may not bet the Preakness. If the pro's pro can't be lured into throwing a couple of bucks down on the race, the masses can't be expected to either. So I asked Avello: What would it take? If horse racing can capture everyone's imagination for one Saturday from Louisville, why not every Saturday from Arlington or Santa Anita or Calder?
The answer is this: Make betting easier. These days, hard-core race fans are the people who had the love passed down from their fathers or grandfathers. They practiced math by calculating exactas. But we are a math-weary point-spread nation when it comes to sports. We are a luck-of-the-draw, big-score nation when it comes to payouts. Avello offered up two options:
1. "Offer a bet of how many lengths the winning horse will win by. It's the nearest thing to a point spread we are going to get."
2. "Make it like a lottery: Pick the winner of any race and you win a million bucks."
If the racing associations wanted to make a go of these, it may be a step toward making the Derby handle seem like chump change.
