The Cat's MLB Over/Under Bets & Detailed Writeups - May 18, 2012 - YTD: 107-105-9 (2,000 words covering multiple games)

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2012 MLB O/U Record: 107-105-9, -$379
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104


Alright, now I’m getting frustrated. Underachieving 2-3 day yesterday, as bad luck continues to plague me. I mean, how does DREW HUTCHISON throw six innings of one-run ball against the vaunted Yankees lineup and on a nationally televised MLB Network broadcast? But as I warned, he was one of the few guys I did not have much information on, nor have I watched him in live action yet, so that’s a loss I’ll take and accept. I also warned you of the bizarre trend that seemingly only New Yorkers notice, where the Yankees somehow struggle against unknown “scrub” pitchers to the point where it’s just more scary than weird. But of course, as you guys witness, notice how I get ZERO breaks, yet how many bad breaks have gone against me when I was 100-percent right on a game this year? A few more this week, which have made it frustrating, but I’m not going to get into it again, as this is actually a very promising Friday that should lift me out of this mini-slump I’ve entered. You’d be wise to follow my card as well, as this just feels like a day I saw very well mentally, and while I’ll be the first to admit that interleague play is tough to bet on (Since there’s such little precedent for all of these matchups; precedent and history is a very key factor in over/under betting), I just sense there’s a lot of potential for tonight, which I couldn’t really say about the past few days going into it. Let’s just say I’d be very surprised if today is not a successful slate of over/unders…


Pittsburgh Pirates @ Detroit Tigers (Co-Best Bet) - $120 for $110 ($60 for $60 on U7, $60 for $50 on U7.5)
Charlie Morton vs Justin Verlander
UNDER 7/7.5

Yes, I have two best bets today, and here we have No. 1, which is a somewhat surprising one in our favor. In other words, we have the opportunity to grab an under with the best American League pitcher in it, Justin Verlander, having a line that is 7 or higher against the sometimes-offensively-challenged Pittsburgh Pirates. How can you not like that scenario? Yes, the Pirate bats have seemingly finally broken out (Although Pedro Alvarez is back in a slump it seems), partaking in consecutive overs, which came across as a daunting task inthe beginning of the year when they came close to a Major League record by not surpassing five runs in a game for the first few weeks-and-change of the season. However, now they’re facing Justin Verlander. No need to get into his accolades, as he appears to be the same magnificent Verlander he’s always been, and we should have him at his best tonight, considering he’s always been better at home than on the road. In fact,so far this year, the split stats indicate more than a full run difference, as his 1.78 home ERA (With a 0.76 WHIP, I may add) easily bests his 3.21 ERA on the road. I’m not sure how it’s possible he goes less than seven innings or gives up more than two runs. Thus, we have that side clearly in our favor.

On the other side, which will obviously be more difficult to help us, is Charlie Morton, who, to his credit, has actually settled in with some solid 2012 season numbers: 2-3, 4.05 ERA, and 1.44 WHIP. Well, the WHIP isn’t really solid, but he’s always been that type of pitcher to get himself into trouble, as even when he was 6-2 with a 2.52 ERA at one point in June last year, he carried a 1.48 WHIP with him up till that point, so that’s just his style, albeit not a very comfortable one. I especially don’t feel comfortable if he allows lots of baserunners to the Tigers, an offense that is on the verge of breaking out after they were embarrassed in being “swept” in two games at home by the lowly Minnesota Twins. Thus, my main concern is their offense breaking out, but since my main vision was a 5-1/6-1 game, I can live with that because we’ll still finish under. That extra half run is huge, especially since I thought the line would be 6.5 (I think Vegas overrated the Pirates having a designated hitter in there. Their bench is weak). Get the under in at 7.5 while you can, as I highly doubt it will remain at 7.5.


Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros (Co-Best Bet) - $126 for $110
Neftali Feliz vs Wandy Rodriguez
OVER 8

And here is my co-best bet, which I actually really like because this was primarily the result of one of my stronger vibes in awhile. This is an over that has a ton of potential, especially when you’re able to secure a simple 5-3 push in a game featuring the potent Texas Ranger bats. Even more enticing is that their schedule Friday matchup is against Wandy Rodriguez, who is one of those guys that is just way overdue to get hit hard. There’s no denying how masterful Wandy has been this year - 3-3, 1.99 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 36:13 K:BB ratio - but as solid as he is, there’s no way he can keep up with that pace (He's been down this similar road before in other seasons). Yes, he did have success against Texas last year in throwing seven shutout innings versus them, but also had a start opposing the Rangers in 2010 in which he surrendered six runs in just three innings. It’s more of a feeling than anything else but I just see Wandy’s downfall, even if it’s a slight one, beginning right now in game one of this underrated Silver Boot series.

Meanwhile, taking the mound for the Rangers will be Neftali Feliz, who is not having the dominant year that his opposing starter is having, but still a really good one that has silenced any critics of Ron Washington’s/Jon Daniels’ decision to move him into the rotation. Thus far, Feliz is 3-1 with a 3.32 ERA and 1.13 WHIP. The walks have been a little too frequent for anyone’s liking (18 in 38 innings), but he’s maintained high strikeout numbers, possessing 31 punch-outs. There haven’t been really any signs of him getting himself into an awful start or anything, but he’s a couple of off ones, which we could see again here tonight against an Astros offense that is actually hot. Houston is coming off a two-game “sweep” of the Milwaukee Brewers (During last night’s Brewers/Astros game, the awesome Astros announcers Bill Brown & Jim Deshaies actually discussed whether or not this qualifies as a sweep or not. Very entertaining announce team, by the way. I’ve always loved them), and their hitters have really started to hit their stride. Most delightful to me is the re-emergence of my longtime favorite player in all of baseball, Carlos Lee, who has four multi-hit games over his last five contests, hitting .524 over that span. Just as I was preaching before the year (Although there was a little bias involved), El Caballo is still a legitimate clean-up hitter. The Astros collectively have been just playing real hard-fought baseball, and with other fine players having good years like Jordan Schafer, Jose Altuve, and Chris Johnson, there’s definitely potential for them to get the bats live again tonight. 5-2/5-3 is my worst-case scenario for this specific Friday matchup at Minute Maid Park so you’ve got to go over.


Chicago WhiteSox @ Chicago Cubs - $69 for $60
Philip Humber vs Jeff Samardzija
UNDER 9

Not a best bet, but still a good bet that I’m putting a decent amount on, and in one of the most unique settings in all of Major League Baseball: the 2:20 PM (EST) Friday afternoon Wrigley Field setting. I forget the backstory but the Cubs are the only team in baseball who regularly plays day games on a Friday (At home), and I like that when a day of the week has its own attraction like this one. Of course, it can be an awfully tough variable, as I have stressed countless times this year how Wrigley Field single-handedly initiates its own huge variable, easily more than any other ballpark in the league, due to its legendary winds. Those winds will be in effect today against our under blowing 10 MPH out, but this is a game I still feel good about.

First, we have Philip Humber taking the mound for the White Sox, and it’s easy to notice his significant drop-off since his brilliant perfect game about a month ago (Which, if you remember, was the same day ironically as my own 8-0 perfect day in which the under in that Beavan vs Humber matchup was my best bet. Will never forget that). In fact, it’s been such a huge drop-off that Humber’s numbers have plummeted considerably, as they now stand at 1-2 with a 5.77 ERA and 1.40 WHIP. That’s not good, but I assure you that is not Philip Humber, therefore meaning those numbers will start coming down in the very near future, probably beginning today. Humber is coming off his best start since his slump began,when he hurled 6.2 excellent innings against the Royals, scattering just four hits that led to only one run against a respectable Royals offense. The most bright spot of that start was his 7 strikeouts, and that’s why I’m confident in Humber being able to retain his early-season success: his strikeout numbers are still high (35 in 34 innings), and when he strikes out six or more hitters, he’s given up just five runs in those five starts in which he’s done so, spanning over 32 innings. The success in his last start should mean he’s figured it out again, so I expect it to carry over, especially when this will have a big-game feel to it being the Windy City Series. Can Humber handle pressure? Considering he handled the pressure of dealing with a perfect game, which is as big as it gets, I’d say yes.

Opposing him will be one of the real feel-good stories of the 2012 season, Jeff Samardzija. The former Notre Dame product, who I once said made a mistake choosing baseball over football (He was a very gifted receiver; probably would have had a successful career by now in the NFL), has been absolutely tremendousthis year in his first full season as a starter (4-1, 2.89 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 45 Ks in 43 innings). He’s also in a real groove right now, as he’s only allowed one run or less in each of his last four starts, and while that’s a very tough streak of great pitching to keep going, it won’t end because of anything mental, as this is a game Samardzija will be really looking forward to, being that it’s the first game against the crosstown rival White Sox. Furthermore, what should also help him will be the fact that the hottest White Sox hitter, Dayan Viciedo (9-for-18 over his last five contests with some homers), is sitting out, due to Adam Dunn shifting from DH to left field, so that could also help us. With the line at 9, no matter what wind there is, that gives us room for error, which is a good thing. 5-4/6-4 is the worst case scenario so that puts us in a good position to take this one. Go under.


Other 5/18 MLB Over/Unders I’m Taking:
Jake Arrieta vs Edwin Jackson OVER 7/7.5
Bronson Arroyo vs Andy Pettitte OVER 9
Joe Saunders vs Luis Mendoza OVER 8.5
(Dollar amounts to be posted later leading up to game time)


**May Add More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**
 

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GL. KC and Hou games already moved up. KC on its way to 9.5
 
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Very strange occurence just now, as Paul Konerko was just hit in the face on accident by Samardzija (Luckily it was a breaking ball and he was able to walk off the field on his own power). Normally that'd be good that he's out of the game, especially since Konerko drilled a two-run homer in the first. But his replacement? Dayan Viciedo. UGH, just real unfortunate luck, as him not playing was one of the reasons I liked this under as much as I did. Like I wrote about in my article, he's their hottest hitter, so hopefully he doesn't do any damage to us under bettors later on.
 
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Very strange occurence just now, as Paul Konerko was just hit in the face on accident by Samardzija (Luckily it was a breaking ball and he was able to walk off the field on his own power). Normally that'd be good that he's out of the game, especially since Konerko drilled a two-run homer in the first. But his replacement? Dayan Viciedo. UGH, just real unfortunate luck, as him not playing was one of the reasons I liked this under as much as I did. Like I wrote about in my article, he's their hottest hitter, so hopefully he doesn't do any damage to us under bettors later on.

And obviously, when I said "normally that'd be good that he's out of the game," I'm talking in the context of helping our under. I hate to see players get hurt, especially good ones like Konerko, so don't take that out of context. Would never glorify an injury, especially one as scary as getting hit in the face by a pitch. Fortunately it looks like he'll be fine
 

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You are an excellent writer and obviously know your shit. Great call on WSox under. Look forward to more of your write-ups
 
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You are an excellent writer and obviously know your shit. Great call on WSox under. Look forward to more of your write-ups

Thank you. I have my journalism degree and have wanted to be a sports writer/announcer my whole life, but unfortunately, there's pretty much no jobs out there, or at least among the places I've looked.

Thus, since I've been successful doing MLB over/unders the past few years (Last year being by far my best year), not to mention having studied pitchers more than any other position in sports, I've just gotten into the habit of writing about my beloved over/unders and my journey while taking zero days off (I spend several hours on this stuff every day), and I enjoy this routine I'm in. At the same time, though, I'd like to eventually get hired by a baseball betting analysis site out there (**Cough** Maybe this one **Cough** :103631605), as I will continue to prove, just as I have up to this point, that I am more than capable of providing 1,500-word-or-more articles every single day covering all my over/under bets, a lot of which with detailed analysis and statistics.

This season, though, I'm obviously not getting the results I want, as you can see from my embarrassing record (And yes, I am 100-percent embarrassed that I'm only three games over .500 in mid-May, but I've been much better than my record says. Regular readers know of the amazing number of bad breaks I've received). All I can do is keep my head up and recognize the bad breaks will be coming to a minimum (Since managers are finally realizing the strengths and weaknesses of their bullpen, as opposed to early on in the year when they had less of an idea).
 
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Nice start to tonight's card with my Humber vs Samardzija under. And here are my dollar amounts for all my other games tonight:

Morton vs Verlander UNDER 7/7.5 - $120 for $110 ($60 for $60 on U7, $60 for $50 on U7.5)
Feliz vs Rodriguez OVER 8 - $126 for $110
Arrieta vs Jackson OVER 7/7.5 - $31 for $30 ($20 for $20 on O7.5, $11 for $10 on O7)
Arroyo vs Pettitte OVER 9 - $32 for $25
Saunders vs Mendoza OVER 8.5 - $24 for $20
Niese vs Romero UNDER 7.5 - $18 for $15
Parker vs Zito UNDER 6.5 - $15 for $15 (This kid Jarrod Parker is the real deal. We're just scratching the surface on him)

GL to us
 

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Awesome. You deserve to be hired somewhere, excellent stuff. And to be able to do this on a daily basis is not easy, much respect. Record is nothing to be embarrassed about at all, especially in this long season. Looking forward to more
 

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What are your thoughts on the over in Colorado. I'm looking for someone to talk me out of this play
 

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Awesome. You deserve to be hired somewhere, excellent stuff. And to be able to do this on a daily basis is not easy, much respect. Record is nothing to be embarrassed about at all, especially in this long season. Looking forward to more

Don't make him go TOUT =)
 

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At the same time, though, I'd like to eventually get hired by a baseball betting analysis site out there (**Cough** Maybe this one **Cough** :103631605), as I will continue to prove, just as I have up to this point, that I am more than capable

I think thats the plan, to go tout
 

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At the same time, though, I'd like to eventually get hired by a baseball betting analysis site out there (**Cough** Maybe this one **Cough** :103631605), as I will continue to prove, just as I have up to this point, that I am more than capable

I think thats the plan, to go tout

Ohhhhhhh man!!! Never like those words. GL Sky.
 

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