Saturday: You've got to read this about inter-league play so far.

ofred · May 19, 2012

It's only the first night of inter-league play, but some amazing things happened that possibly show that AL dominance is even more pronounced this year. Small sample, but damn!

Seattle was having a miserable road trip (1-6) losing badly almost each game. Then they go into a hitter's paradise and Kevin Millwood, their worst starter and journeyman supreme (well deserved), 2 hits Colorado. He could never do that in the AL! Never.

Jon Niese gets absolutely hammered in Toronto. 8 ERS in 3 innings, 4 HRs. His worst pitching line since 2010. It was 14- 1 going into the 8th.

The Twinkies score 11 runs on 16 hits in Milwaukee. They haven't done that since last year on September 2nd.

Verlander nearly no-hits Pittsburgh. My Friday thread points out how it was almost unfair for him to face that Pirate lineup. I was kidding, kind of, but maybe there was truth to it. Easy 6-0 win for Detroit.

White Sox beat Cubs 3-2.

Andy Pettitte struggles against lowly Mariners, completely shuts down Reds, 8 IP, 0 ER, 7 Ks. This is 2 games back from his retirement.

Jake Arrieta, of the O's, pitches a great game vs. Nats, 7 IP, 1 ER, 9 Ks- this after he had been hammered badly in his last 2 AL starts.

Now Atlanta gets a pass. They are playing great ball, hitting well consistently and have one of the best pitching staffs in the NL. Phillies held on vs. Boston, but the whole game it looked like Boston was battling to get back in it. 4 run first vs. Bard was the damage that couldn't be overcome. Still, against Hamel, the Sox hung in there.

Rangers got 10 hits off of Wandy Rodriquez, his most hits of the year, in a 4-1 win. Ranger bullpen shut down Astros. Only 4 hits for them the whole game.

KC lost, but then what do you expect when you send Luis Mendoza out there? He is only out there because the Royals got no one else. Their starting staff is a mess.

Angels are in the process of besting SD, though the A's are losing to SF. Not final yet.

Anyways, I know it's just one night, but so far, the AL teams are looking awfully superior in every way. Especially with some of the surprising things of tonight.

ofred · May 19, 2012

Other than the SF/ Oakland game, where rookie Jarrod Parker got knocked around, did the AL get beaten badly by an NL team. Saturday plays coming…….

ofred · May 19, 2012

First play: Toronto -1, 2 units.
Also one unit on the RL. I'm glad Miguel Batista pitched a great game against the Brewers. Many bad pitchers have a good game vs. them. This means Toronto will take him seriously. Batista was toast in his AL time, and found a home in the NL pitching one inning (and a prayer) stints for STL, Washington and now the Mets. He walks a lot of guys, and with the HR happy Blue Jays, that's bad. His fastball tops out in the 80s, and yet he still throws it often. Batista will not go too far into this game and so the Jays will get the Mets dreadful bullpen. Morrow has amazing stats except in his 2 games vs. Rays. Every other start has been very good or quality, and that's against AL hitting. I do not expect a blowout like Friday night. That rarely happens two games in a row. But the Jays usually heat up in game 2 and 3 in their series.

Bee40 · May 19, 2012

Thanks for posting, I like your analyses.

ofred · May 19, 2012

One unit Boston -1.
One unit Boston ML. Red Sox have been hitting right-handers like Blanton very well this year, even the bottom of their lineup. On the other hand, Phillies have not been very successful vs. LH pitchers. Lester is on his game for last 4 starts… 27 IP, 5 ERs, 1 HR, 18 Ks and only 5 walks. Lester gets streaky like this, and can run off 5-7 good games in a row. Phillies lineup not as feared with Polanco, Utley and Howard out. BP also a step down from last year. Red Sox BP, has improved ever since their Yankee debacle of a few weeks ago.

ofred · May 19, 2012

One unit on Texas/ Houston -over 9. This seems very doable. Texas is so due for breakout game. What better than against Luke Harrell, released by the White Sox last year for struggling badly in the AL. Texas hits righties well, especially Hamilton, Beltre, Andrus and Moreland. Don't forget the Astros can stroke it too. Derek Holland always gives up at least a few runs. Ranger bullpen is a little overused and a couple of guys will not be available. Minute Maid often has a wind blowing out. Maybe first 5 over too.

Betallsports · May 19, 2012

Yes good analyses .... you have to remember that Inter-League play is a whole other Animal in terms as how a team plays.
I like to use Seattle as an example, You have a team who has done good in Inter-League in the past. They have a record of 146-121 in the past 14 years... and we are talking about the Mariners here.... a team that's really not that good over the years.

Take a team like the yankees.. of course we all know how good they have been over the years, and they are just as good in Inter-League.
They have the Best record overall by far ! 179-118 going against one of the worst Inter-League teams, The Reds 97-124

ofred · May 19, 2012

On the Astro game, Derek Holland has been hit hard in his last 6 inter-league games. Not sure why, but his stuff is average. Pitches poorly in small parks?

Don't know want to take a chance on Tigers today. You never know what Burnett will do. Has pitched well vs. Detroit in last few outings. When he's on, he's on. But I do like Pirates under 3.5 TT today for one unit. Smyly is no Verlander, but has been super consistent this year vs. AL hitters. Pirate lineup is dismal except for McCutchen vs. LHP, or any pitching. Smyly has been lauded by observers for veteran like composure and maturity. He is also likely wanting to prove himself after his first mediocre start last time against CWS.

ofred · May 19, 2012

Blue Jays winner. 2-0, + 3units. Once again, an NL team that can't hit an AL pitcher. I did expect more off of Batista though. In NY, Ivan Nova pitched on a bum ankle, but still had 12 Ks. Also, Yankee lineup looks much less than usual. ARod's stats are diminishing year by year.

ofred · May 19, 2012

Keep an eye on winds in Houston. May be blowing out to outfield 10-20 mph by game time. If so, could be a good bet in first 5- over 5.

VicVega91 · May 19, 2012

o fred said:
Keep an eye on winds in Houston. May be blowing out to outfield 10-20 mph by game time. If so, could be a good bet in first 5- over 5.

Retractable roof, will be irrelevant if closed

ofred · May 19, 2012

Thanks Vic. Didn't think they'd close it on a 85 degree, low humidity night.

ofred · May 19, 2012

Inter-league today: Surprised at the Pirates scoring 4, but McCutcheon does kill left-handed pitching. otherwise, most noticeable is lack of hitting vs. AL pitchers. Jeanmar Gomez, Jason Vargas, Tyson Ross, Morrow, and Pavano all looking far better than their norm. I'm going to risk one unit on the following plays, partly because AL pitching dominance so far.

Baltimore. ML. Jason Hammel is the Oriole ace and the Nats are missing some key bats. Detwiler has faced far weaker hitting teams than Hammel. In fact Hammel has faced the Yankees twice, Toronto twice, Boston, CWS… and has held his own, registering a good K/ BB ratio. Detwiler got hit pretty well his last 2 starts vs. weakies Pitt and SD.

KC. ML. If there is an ace on the Royals it might as well be Bruce Chen. He is crafty and gets the most out of his limited talent. His recent outing vs. Texas was impressive. Like Hammel, has faced far better hitting teams than Ian Kennedy. Arizona reminds me of a typical overrated NL team. So-so defense, mediocre BP and they hit well usually at home- but not on the road. Granted, Kennedy is their ace, but this year he is a little less than ace-like- fastball can straighten out and he's on the small side. Still has good stuff. KC's bad fortune at hope has start evening out. They aren't that bad.

Angels TT- one unit (on the high side) Really like this TT over 3.5. It's only this low because NL hitters have been stymied many nights in SD. But Eric Stults is a castoff of the White Sox, has traveled around, and has always had control issues. The Angels can hit lefties, especially if Pujols is finally out of his slump. Also think another reason so few runs are scored in SD is because the Padres can't hit, SF can't very well and the Dodger are average. SD does have a good BP and will need it tonight.

VicVega91 · May 19, 2012

o fred said:
Thanks Vic. Didn't think they'd close it on a 85 degree, low humidity night.

Could be 100% correct. I used to live there and they sometimes would have it closed until nightfall even when it was not that hot during the day (mid 80's or so)

ofred · May 19, 2012

More AL dominance this evening. Man, that Angels game is looking tempting, as is tomorrow's slate. Can this NL be this bad? Probably not, but if you pick your spots, there is money to be made taking AL teams when they start up again in June.

ofred · May 19, 2012

Padres strike out a lot. If Haren's back is okay, this is a great first 5, Angels -1/2 bet. Not a unit for me, but I'm laying something on it.

ofred · May 19, 2012

Angels have an all righty lineup for Stults tonight. Let's make it official, one unit -1/2 Angels, first 5 innings.

Bee40 · May 19, 2012

o fred said:
Angels have an all righty lineup for Stults tonight. Let's make it official, one unit -1/2 Angels, first 5 innings.

I really like the over 6 in this game. Is this some kind of trap? It's not like it's Verlander vs. Sabathia here, are runs going to be that hard to come by?

basilesox · May 19, 2012

Great job so far today..Im with you on the Angels as well. Just got at least a push (maybe a loss) on the Cubs/Sox Under on a 2 run homer with 2 outs in the ninth. Pretty much sums up my baseball betting season thus far.

basilesox · May 19, 2012

Wow wild pitch and 2 out single.. Man oh man, the baseball gods really hate me.

Saturday: You've got to read this about inter-league play so far.

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