The Cat's MLB Over/Under Bets & Detailed Writeups - May 19, 2012 - YTD: 110-110-9

Search
Joined
Apr 6, 2012
Messages
3,314
Tokens
2012 MLB O/U Record: 110-110-9, -$411
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104


Won two out of my top three write-up bets last night, but finished 3-5 overall and ended up making no money. Worst of all, my record has dropped to .500, something I never imagined happening this late in the season. I just have no comment for it; it’s incredibly mind-boggling and demoralizing given the success I had last year and I thought coming into the year that I’d be able to even top it. I know I’ll wind up fine in the end, since this is an everydayt hing for six months, so I just keep my head up and move on to the next one. Luckily, Saturday is a day I have absolutely dominated (22-7-2 this year!), which is actually a very strange trend for me considering it was my worst day last year (44-47-4). In fact, it was my only day of the week where I was under .500 in 2011. Well, hopefully today is another 2012 Saturday owned by The Cat, let’s see…


(Posting this early because I have a 1 o’clock game from the slate. I have two other write-up bets that I will add a bit later)


New York Mets @ Toronto Blue Jays - $50 for $45
Miguel Batista vs Brandon Morrow
UNDER 9

I’m pleased I had a solid vibe on this game, as while these aren’t two of my favorite pitchers, my own statistics indicate I know each one pretty well. First, you’ve got to like any under involving Brandon Morrow with a line as high as 9, as this year especially is when he’s been able to showcase his ace-caliber stuff. After all, he’s 4-2 with a 2.22 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, and a sparkling 46:16 K:BB ratio in 52 innings. Just all across the board, Morrow has dazzled in finally living up to his potential of being the consistent top-flight starter that a lot of people thought he would be early on in his career. Also of note, while I was only 1-3 on his over/unders last year, I am 4-1-1 on him this year thus far, the one loss being his first start of the year when he threw seven innings of ONE-hit ball and gave up only two unearned runs in Cleveland, so I was 100-percent right on that game as well (It was an under 8 that was 2-2 going into the 9th and somehow lost in extra innings. Only me).

Miguel Batista is another guy I know well (2-0 with him last year; 2-0 so far this year), as I have already discussed him in great detail earlier on in the year before he made his first start against Tim Lincecum. Judging by his last start, seven shutout innings yielding only four hits versus Milwaukee, it appears the old veteran is perhaps returning to his solid form that we saw at the end of last season, concluding with a complete game shutout against the Reds. I mean, this could be tricky for him pitching in an American League ballpark going up against a tough lineup without the benefit of having the pitcher in the ninth spot to bail him out at times, but as we saw towards the end of 2011, he pitches well in bunches, and if that brilliant last start is any indication, he should be in a groove right now and hold his own. I expect Morrow to carry the bulk of this under, but Batista can give us enough as well to put us in a good position to win.



As I said, I'll be back in a bit with my bigger bets on the evening.
 
Joined
Apr 6, 2012
Messages
3,314
Tokens
Good start to the day with my Batista vs Morrow under, especially since that keeps me undefeated in Miguel Batista over/unders in the past two seasons. Anyway, let's try to keep it going with these other offerings...


Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros (Best Bet)
Derek Holland vs Lucas Harrell
OVER 9

I look at this pitching matchup and I feel like it has 7-3 or 6-4 written all over it in a Saturday night Houston setting. It won’t be that easy, though, as Derek Holland is a guy capable of completely shutting down big-league lineups on any given night, hence why he led the American League in shutouts last year with four. He’s having another good year in 2012, registering a 3-2 record witha 3.78 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, and a solid 40 Ks in 47 innings up to this point. Interestingly, though, while he put up much of the same numbers in 2011, he was awful in interleague play, allowing 15 runs (11 earned) in just 14 innings of work, although in his defense, all three of his starts against the National League were at home where a DH was involved. Tonight’s contest is at beautiful Minute Maid Park (One of my top five favorite stadiums, by the way), but I still think the Astros offense can put together a few runs after mustering only one against Neftali Feliz last night. They've been hitting much better than that overall lately.

What I expect to win it for us will be the performance of Lucas Harrell, who really isn’t as bad as he is unknown. This is a guy who once was somewhat of a promising prospect in the White Sox organization, albeit seven and eight years ago, so it was nice to see him resurface with the Astros, especially after providing a nice little showing at the end of last year. I do think he has the talent to stick in a Major League rotation for several years, although mostly residing in the middle or bottom portion of it. In any case, he’s having a decent season, but his WHIP has consistently been high, and it all takes is for one gopher ball to do him in, which Texas does better than anybody else in baseball. As long as Harrell continues to let guys get on the base, his downfall will be inevitable on this specific night against the slugging Rangers who should produce more runs after plating only four on 12 hits last night (Like I said, Wandy would have his first off start of the year last night but Texas didn’t capitalize enough like they usually do). In addition, this is a rare Saturday night game on FOX (I've been dominating the afternoon FOX ones), which I think will affect Mr. Harrell in more of a negative way than a positive. Book it - 7-3.


Other 5/19 MLBOver/Unders I’m Taking:
Dan Haren vs Eric Stults UNDER 6.5 (I was 100-percent right about Stults in his first start since 2009 a couple of Mondays ago when he was excellent. Now he randomly finds himself in a Padre uniform after pitching with the White Sox. I expect Haren to give us his usual dominant outing, while Stults handles himself decently trying to impress his new teammates. Unfortunately, though, we are not protected in the very likely event of a 5-2 outcome, which is why I'm probably not doing this bet for a significant amount. Vegas made this one a half-run lower than it should be)


**May Add More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**
 
Joined
Apr 6, 2012
Messages
3,314
Tokens
Ah, good ol' Saturday helps me out again. 2-0 today, trying to make it a perfect trifecta. My amount for my final game:

Haren vs Stults UNDER 6.5 - $49 for $40 (As I said, I'd have more on it if the line was 7, which it should be. If you have the chance to buy half a run, do it for a solid amount. I sense Haren contributing one of his vintage dominant performances tonight against these Padres, while Stults should pick up where he left off in his last start. As I wrote about a few weeks ago in great detail, he was doing very nice for himself in 2009 despite flying under the radar all this time)
 
Joined
Apr 6, 2012
Messages
3,314
Tokens
Also, I'm going to be VERY pissed if Haren vs Stults under ends up 5-2. That's a main vision I had for that game, so it would really suck to lose that game yet have the exact score completely anticipated, although I think that might be worst-case scenario. GL if you're taking it along with The Cat
 
Joined
Apr 6, 2012
Messages
3,314
Tokens
There we go, 3-0 sweep today to keep up my Saturday domination this year (25-7-2! Wow). And nobody knows Eric Stults better than I do.

Have to keep this up, I'll see you all tomorrow, just as I do every single day
 

Forum statistics

Threads
1,108,089
Messages
13,448,421
Members
99,392
Latest member
nevillberger
The RX is the sports betting industry's leading information portal for bonuses, picks, and sportsbook reviews. Find the best deals offered by a sportsbook in your state and browse our free picks section.FacebookTwitterInstagramContact Usforum@therx.com