2012 MLB O/U Record: 113-110-9, -$241
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104
Nice 3-0 sweep yesterday, as I inexplicably continue to own Saturdays this season (25-7-2!) after it was my ONLY losing day of the week for all of last year (44-47-4). I still contend that Mondays are my best day, however. In any case, this is Sunday, which hasn’t treated me all too well (10-12-1), and traditionally, I treat this as more of a laid-back kind of day before gearing up for my favorite day of the week (Monday!). Today, however, I’ve got a decent number of solid bets so let’s get on to it…
Arizona Diamondbacks vs Kansas City Royals (Best Bet) - $55 for $50
Wade Miley vs Nathan Adcock
UNDER 9
Certainly this isn’t really a game that most people would expect to be a “best bet,” but since nobody studies MLB Over/Unders more than I do, this one could be a diamond in the rough, albeit one I’m doing for a smaller amount relative to other best bets. The main reason I’m divulging, believe it or not, has much to do with Nathan Adcock, who I’m pleased to see is getting a chance to start again after a fine showing last season. He only made three starts in 2011, one being horrendous (In Texas, so I give him a pass for that one) and the other two being quality outings against the eventual World Champion Cardinals (5 IP, 3 hits, 0 runs, 4 Ks, 1 BBs) and on the road against division-winning Detroit (5.1 IP, 6 hits, 2 runs, 2 Ks, 0 BBs). So you see, Adcock has displayed potential of being a big-league starter, and while he doesn’t really put up notable strikeout numbers (Even as a reliever, he only has 7 in 14 IP), I could see him succeeding as a guy that just makes timely pitcher’s pitches, for lack of a better term, in being able to just pound the strike zone and induce outs. He’s made two appearances this year in long relief where he went five or more innings, and in those games, he only allowed one run each time, thus meaning that he’s someone who can put together long strings of good pitching. His style may actually be very similar to his opponent for this afternoon.
Much like Adcock, Wade Miley is someone who doesn’t rely on the strikeout as often (27 in 40 IP), but rather the defense playing behind him, which is fine. And you know what? It’s obviously working for him, as evident in his 4-1 record, 2.52 ERA, and 1.19 WHIP. I’ve watched Miley a few times, including his last start in its entirety (When I got screwed in Miley vs Billingsley over 6.5. How did it not go over? Let me remind you… there were 30 BASERUNNERS, mostly thanks to Billingsley, though), and he just has the poise and control of someone capable of sticking for awhile in a Major League rotation. Furthermore, Miley has confidence and looks like a guy who can have sustained success. He’s obviously in a groove right now, especially coming off an excellent outing in LA, and I see him keeping it up here with a decent effort. With a line as high as 9 in this specific matchup, our chances look solid for an under.
Miami Marlins @ Cleveland Indians- $46 for $40
Josh Johnson vs Derek Lowe
OVER 7.5
Surprisingly,this fascinating interleague series between the Marlins and Indians has produced virtually no offense, having games thus far that ended 3-2 and 2-0. Playing at hitter-friendly Progressive Field, you’d figure there’d be more, but hey, all it means is that both teams are that much more due on the offensive side of things, and going up against two vulnerable pitchers at this point in time, they may break out at the plate on this Sunday afternoon. First, going for Cleveland is Derek Lowe, who just continues to amaze me. He’s 6-1 with a 2.05 ERA, yet somehow, he also carries a very unpleasant 1.44 WHIP, and has only 13 strikeouts in 52+ innings. In addition, he has more walks (17) than punch-outs! It truly is remarkable how this guy still gets it done, but it’s no coincidence: Lowe is the definition of a grizzled veteran that just knows how to pitch. He’s very smart at his position, which is why he’s still going strong even today, and is well on his way to an all-star berth - that is, unless his high number of baserunners allowed starts to get to him. I see that becoming a trend that does indeed start striking him today against the Marlins, at least for a few runs. It’s IMPOSSIBLE for him to keep up at the pace he’s currently on, with so many guys getting on base. With a DH in there, the Marlins are more than capable of putting a dent into his shiny ERA.
Pitching opposite Lowe will be another peculiar story from this 2012 season, that being Josh Johnson. The former perennial Cy Young candidate has looked like anything but that, possessing a 1-3 record with a 5.36 ERA and 1.59 WHIP (Yikes). Meanwhile, his strikeout numbers are somewhat still there, as he has 38 in 45 innings. It’s sad to see great talent just suddenly dissolve thanks to injury (Ex. Adam Wainwright), which is really something you can’t control personally, but in this case, perhaps Johnson is finally breaking out of it. He’s gone 7 inningsin each of his last two starts, surrendering only two runs in each outing,which is very reminiscent of an old Josh Johnson start. However, that came against the Astros and Pirates. Here he has a more daunting task going up against Cleveland on the road, and considering Johnson isn’t fully out of the woods yet, I see him getting tagged at least a little bit. With a line as low as 7.5, as long as each pitcher gives up at least a few runs, we’ll be in good shape.
Other 5/20 MLBOver/Unders I’m Taking:
Kyle Lohse vs Chad Billingsley OVER 7 - $24 for $20
Stephen Strasburg vs Wei-Yin Chen UNDER 6.5 - $18 for $15
Blake Beavan vs Jeremy Guthrie UNDER 10 - $18 for $15 (Normally I’d say don’t let the line dictate your opinion but it’s an over/under of 10 in a game with BLAKE BEAVAN pitching, and in a National League park! Impossible for me to resist)
**May Add More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104
Nice 3-0 sweep yesterday, as I inexplicably continue to own Saturdays this season (25-7-2!) after it was my ONLY losing day of the week for all of last year (44-47-4). I still contend that Mondays are my best day, however. In any case, this is Sunday, which hasn’t treated me all too well (10-12-1), and traditionally, I treat this as more of a laid-back kind of day before gearing up for my favorite day of the week (Monday!). Today, however, I’ve got a decent number of solid bets so let’s get on to it…
Arizona Diamondbacks vs Kansas City Royals (Best Bet) - $55 for $50
Wade Miley vs Nathan Adcock
UNDER 9
Certainly this isn’t really a game that most people would expect to be a “best bet,” but since nobody studies MLB Over/Unders more than I do, this one could be a diamond in the rough, albeit one I’m doing for a smaller amount relative to other best bets. The main reason I’m divulging, believe it or not, has much to do with Nathan Adcock, who I’m pleased to see is getting a chance to start again after a fine showing last season. He only made three starts in 2011, one being horrendous (In Texas, so I give him a pass for that one) and the other two being quality outings against the eventual World Champion Cardinals (5 IP, 3 hits, 0 runs, 4 Ks, 1 BBs) and on the road against division-winning Detroit (5.1 IP, 6 hits, 2 runs, 2 Ks, 0 BBs). So you see, Adcock has displayed potential of being a big-league starter, and while he doesn’t really put up notable strikeout numbers (Even as a reliever, he only has 7 in 14 IP), I could see him succeeding as a guy that just makes timely pitcher’s pitches, for lack of a better term, in being able to just pound the strike zone and induce outs. He’s made two appearances this year in long relief where he went five or more innings, and in those games, he only allowed one run each time, thus meaning that he’s someone who can put together long strings of good pitching. His style may actually be very similar to his opponent for this afternoon.
Much like Adcock, Wade Miley is someone who doesn’t rely on the strikeout as often (27 in 40 IP), but rather the defense playing behind him, which is fine. And you know what? It’s obviously working for him, as evident in his 4-1 record, 2.52 ERA, and 1.19 WHIP. I’ve watched Miley a few times, including his last start in its entirety (When I got screwed in Miley vs Billingsley over 6.5. How did it not go over? Let me remind you… there were 30 BASERUNNERS, mostly thanks to Billingsley, though), and he just has the poise and control of someone capable of sticking for awhile in a Major League rotation. Furthermore, Miley has confidence and looks like a guy who can have sustained success. He’s obviously in a groove right now, especially coming off an excellent outing in LA, and I see him keeping it up here with a decent effort. With a line as high as 9 in this specific matchup, our chances look solid for an under.
Miami Marlins @ Cleveland Indians- $46 for $40
Josh Johnson vs Derek Lowe
OVER 7.5
Surprisingly,this fascinating interleague series between the Marlins and Indians has produced virtually no offense, having games thus far that ended 3-2 and 2-0. Playing at hitter-friendly Progressive Field, you’d figure there’d be more, but hey, all it means is that both teams are that much more due on the offensive side of things, and going up against two vulnerable pitchers at this point in time, they may break out at the plate on this Sunday afternoon. First, going for Cleveland is Derek Lowe, who just continues to amaze me. He’s 6-1 with a 2.05 ERA, yet somehow, he also carries a very unpleasant 1.44 WHIP, and has only 13 strikeouts in 52+ innings. In addition, he has more walks (17) than punch-outs! It truly is remarkable how this guy still gets it done, but it’s no coincidence: Lowe is the definition of a grizzled veteran that just knows how to pitch. He’s very smart at his position, which is why he’s still going strong even today, and is well on his way to an all-star berth - that is, unless his high number of baserunners allowed starts to get to him. I see that becoming a trend that does indeed start striking him today against the Marlins, at least for a few runs. It’s IMPOSSIBLE for him to keep up at the pace he’s currently on, with so many guys getting on base. With a DH in there, the Marlins are more than capable of putting a dent into his shiny ERA.
Pitching opposite Lowe will be another peculiar story from this 2012 season, that being Josh Johnson. The former perennial Cy Young candidate has looked like anything but that, possessing a 1-3 record with a 5.36 ERA and 1.59 WHIP (Yikes). Meanwhile, his strikeout numbers are somewhat still there, as he has 38 in 45 innings. It’s sad to see great talent just suddenly dissolve thanks to injury (Ex. Adam Wainwright), which is really something you can’t control personally, but in this case, perhaps Johnson is finally breaking out of it. He’s gone 7 inningsin each of his last two starts, surrendering only two runs in each outing,which is very reminiscent of an old Josh Johnson start. However, that came against the Astros and Pirates. Here he has a more daunting task going up against Cleveland on the road, and considering Johnson isn’t fully out of the woods yet, I see him getting tagged at least a little bit. With a line as low as 7.5, as long as each pitcher gives up at least a few runs, we’ll be in good shape.
Other 5/20 MLBOver/Unders I’m Taking:
Kyle Lohse vs Chad Billingsley OVER 7 - $24 for $20
Stephen Strasburg vs Wei-Yin Chen UNDER 6.5 - $18 for $15
Blake Beavan vs Jeremy Guthrie UNDER 10 - $18 for $15 (Normally I’d say don’t let the line dictate your opinion but it’s an over/under of 10 in a game with BLAKE BEAVAN pitching, and in a National League park! Impossible for me to resist)
**May Add More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**
