2012 MLB O/U Record: 116-111-10, -$149
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104
Ah, Monday. I might be the only person in the country who adores Mondays as much as I do, but there is good reason for that. After all, no matter the changes that have happened throughout my years in gambling, the one consistent day for me has always been Monday. There’s just something about it, man. While Sunday is generally known as officially being “the first day of the week,” I consider that to be Monday. Why? Well in the baseball sense, Monday almost always begins a new series for just about every team (It’s rare when a weekend series spills over into Monday), as you kind of reset yourself and gear up for the week ahead. In that mindset, I think it’s easier to predict how players are going to perform because when everything is reset, you’re essentially somewhat starting from scratch, thus making things much steadier in general than the average day.It’s hard to fully explain, as it’s also really a vibe thing, but as I’ve mentioned, a lot of over/under betting has much to do with human psychology, since Major League pitchers are everyday people like you and me. Agree or disagree with my Monday philosophy, the stats back it up. While I only started doing a full day-by-day stat breakdown of my record last year, when I was an incredible 68-35-6 on Mondays (And this was a personal trend I pointed out even before last year), the same has held true in 2012, as I am currently 18-11. What’s not to like about that track record? Instead of touting it, allow me to once again display my Monday dominance…
New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates (Co-Best Bet) - $144 for $115
Johan Santana vs Erik Bedard
UNDER 7
Very,v ery interesting move on Vegas’ part to open up the over/under line for this game at 7, and as a result, it’s no surprise to see they quickly shifted the line down to 6.5 this morning. There’s no reason this game should be 7 when it involves two very good southpaws going up against two very unspectacular batting lineups, both of whom are not particularly good against left-handed pitching. In fact, the Pirates are anchored towards the bottom of the league with a .230b atting average, while the Mets sit somewhere towards the middle with a .252 clip. Thus, I was shocked the line was as high as it was and jumped on it. How can you not like an under 7 in a National League matchup with these two pitchers involved?
Johan Santana may not be the completely dominant of Johan Santana of old, but he’s still nothing short of excellent. Just take a look at his performance thus far: 1-2, 2.89 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, and 46 Ks in 43 IP. He’s put to rest any questions that doubted him coming back from arm surgery, and appears to have reclaimed much of his old form. After all, he’s made eight starts this year, and in only one of them did he surrender more than three runs. In half of them, he’s given up just one run or less, so I think it’s safe to assume that Santana feels almost like his old self. The only thing I’m worried about is the fact that Andrew McCutchen KILLS left-handed pitching; it’s why he’s hitting .450 (With zero walks in 40 ABs interestingly. Santana is a smart pitcher so does he capitalize on that interesting stat?), and considering he’s still very hot right now, he’s someone who can single-handedly put our under in jeopardy. But if he hits that well against lefties, and the Pirates as a whole hit .230 against southpaws, what does that say about the rest of the team? That has to put us under bettors in a fine position.
The other half of the equation sits on the golden arm of Erik Bedard, who was once feared as any other lefty in all of baseball during his prime. Even a couple of years removed from that, Bedard still remains a quality pitcher. He’s 2-5t hanks to low run support, but carries a 3.07 ERA and 44 Ks in 41 IP. I always value that trait whether or not a guy averages more than a strikeout per inning because it means he can single-handedly get himself out of any jam, as well as keep baserunners right where they are without the ball going into play. That will offset his satisfactory 1.34 WHIP. The only tough part concerning Bedard at this point in time is that he’s coming off his only outing of the season in which he gave up more than two earned runs, when he allowed four on the road against theNationals. Therefore, since Bedard is pretty much facing his first bit of adversity this season, that may involve the mental aspect of his game a lot more than usual, which we are mostly unaware of, since this isn’t the same dominant Erik Bedard we grew used to when he was in Baltimore and Seattle. At the same time, though, that was his first start after leaving his previous one early due to back spasms, so that may have had an impact as well. He’s almost another week removed from that injury so I think he’s fine right now, and against the Mets, has an opportunity to get back on track. It’ll be close, but if my worst-case scenario for this game is 5-2, we’ll be in good shape.
Chicago Cubs @ Houston Astros (Co-Best Bet) - $133 for $115
Matt Garza vs Bud Norris
UNDER 7
If you’re a regular reader of mine, you know that Bud Norris is my favorite pitcher in all of baseball (Slightly ahead of James McDonald and JA Happ), and because of that, I have an extremely good sense for his games. The stats back it up, as I was 11-6-1 on Bud Norris over/unders last year, and am thus far 3-1 on his over/unders this year (The one loss being an under I had a couple of Saturday nights ago when he owned the Cardinals, just as he ALWAYS does, which is the main reason I took the under for that game. So in other words, I was still 100-percent right on him and should be 4-0). The majority of those wins came specifically from taking the under, which is exactly what we have here. If you’ve been paying attention to the guy, you would know he’s clearly back in his rhythm after a sluggish start to 2012. In fact, he’s only given up just ONE earned run over his past three starts, spanning 19 innings. In those frames, he has also struck out 21 batters. Norris did struggle a bit in the very beginning of the season, but a lot of good pitchers do because it has much more to do with mindset and getting back into the flow of things than it does talent, hence why Norris is right back on his normal path. Trust me, when he’s on his game, he’s as good as anybody out there, and since he’s hit his stride this month, I expect Norris to keep it up in this contest against the Cubs at home, where he excels at his best. Just look at the splits for yourself: 3.89 career home ERA, compared to a 4.66 career ERA on the road. It’s become even more evident in 2012, as he owns a 2.03 ERA and 1.05 WHIP at Minute Maid versus a 5.32 ERA and 1.39 WHIP on the road.
Then there is Matt Garza, who my 2011 stats indicate I know very well (7-1 on his over/unders last year, somehow), but to be quite honest, I don’t feel like I know him that well at all. I always liked his potential in Minnesota and thought he would break out as an upper-tier starter in this league, but I feel like it’s not often at all where I get a sense for one of his over/unders. In other words, when I was doing the full in-depth stat breakdown of my 2011performance, and saw my final record with Garza, I was actually shocked, and I feel it had more to do with my knowledge on the other pitcher he’d be facing. Thus far in 2012, I’m 1-1 with him, but given his success this season, there’s no reason not to believe that he can go pitch-for-pitch with Bud Norris on his turf on this very night. After all, Garza’s numbers look remarkable: 2-1, 2.58 ERA, 1.04 WHIP (!), and 41 Ks in 45 IP. Furthermore, he has a very good track record against the Astros in four career starts (3.00 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 27:8 K:BB ratio in 30 IP), including two starts last year when he yielded only five runs and 12 hits to them in 16 innings. All the stats support this being a pitcher’s duel at Minute Maid tonight.
And just on a personal aside, I find it interesting that Bud Norris will be entering a potential duel on this specific Monday of all. OFF THE TOP OF MY HEAD (This is where my Bud Norris obsession gets a little scary), I recall this exact Monday last year (May 23) being his showdown in Houston against Clayton Kershaw, which was one of my biggest bets of the 2011 season. I note this because it was also one of my favorite pitcher’s duels of the ENTIRE SEASON (And I watch multiple baseball games every day), but it was ruined by the Dodgers bullpen. It was 3-1 going into the bottom of the ninth, and there were even two instances where the Astros were down to their final strike (One time with only a runner on first base!), yet somehow pulled off the comeback and won 4-3, costing me a huge win, ultimately resulting in a heart-breaking push. So, yeah, while that game has really no effect on this one, I just find it funny how distinctly I remember that game, and perhaps tonight’s Bud Norris affair on the exact same Monday one year later will maybe give me a chance to avenge it, and perhaps right the wrong from one year ago. Funny how life mirrors itself in strange ways sometimes, doesn't it?
Other 5/21 MLB Over/Unders I’m Taking:
Yu Darvish vs Felix Hernandez UNDER 6.5 - $41 for $35
Mike Minor vs Mike Leake OVER 9 - $27 for $25
Gio Gonzalez vs Kyle Kendrick OVER 7 - $24 for $20
**May Add More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104
Ah, Monday. I might be the only person in the country who adores Mondays as much as I do, but there is good reason for that. After all, no matter the changes that have happened throughout my years in gambling, the one consistent day for me has always been Monday. There’s just something about it, man. While Sunday is generally known as officially being “the first day of the week,” I consider that to be Monday. Why? Well in the baseball sense, Monday almost always begins a new series for just about every team (It’s rare when a weekend series spills over into Monday), as you kind of reset yourself and gear up for the week ahead. In that mindset, I think it’s easier to predict how players are going to perform because when everything is reset, you’re essentially somewhat starting from scratch, thus making things much steadier in general than the average day.It’s hard to fully explain, as it’s also really a vibe thing, but as I’ve mentioned, a lot of over/under betting has much to do with human psychology, since Major League pitchers are everyday people like you and me. Agree or disagree with my Monday philosophy, the stats back it up. While I only started doing a full day-by-day stat breakdown of my record last year, when I was an incredible 68-35-6 on Mondays (And this was a personal trend I pointed out even before last year), the same has held true in 2012, as I am currently 18-11. What’s not to like about that track record? Instead of touting it, allow me to once again display my Monday dominance…
New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates (Co-Best Bet) - $144 for $115
Johan Santana vs Erik Bedard
UNDER 7
Very,v ery interesting move on Vegas’ part to open up the over/under line for this game at 7, and as a result, it’s no surprise to see they quickly shifted the line down to 6.5 this morning. There’s no reason this game should be 7 when it involves two very good southpaws going up against two very unspectacular batting lineups, both of whom are not particularly good against left-handed pitching. In fact, the Pirates are anchored towards the bottom of the league with a .230b atting average, while the Mets sit somewhere towards the middle with a .252 clip. Thus, I was shocked the line was as high as it was and jumped on it. How can you not like an under 7 in a National League matchup with these two pitchers involved?
Johan Santana may not be the completely dominant of Johan Santana of old, but he’s still nothing short of excellent. Just take a look at his performance thus far: 1-2, 2.89 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, and 46 Ks in 43 IP. He’s put to rest any questions that doubted him coming back from arm surgery, and appears to have reclaimed much of his old form. After all, he’s made eight starts this year, and in only one of them did he surrender more than three runs. In half of them, he’s given up just one run or less, so I think it’s safe to assume that Santana feels almost like his old self. The only thing I’m worried about is the fact that Andrew McCutchen KILLS left-handed pitching; it’s why he’s hitting .450 (With zero walks in 40 ABs interestingly. Santana is a smart pitcher so does he capitalize on that interesting stat?), and considering he’s still very hot right now, he’s someone who can single-handedly put our under in jeopardy. But if he hits that well against lefties, and the Pirates as a whole hit .230 against southpaws, what does that say about the rest of the team? That has to put us under bettors in a fine position.
The other half of the equation sits on the golden arm of Erik Bedard, who was once feared as any other lefty in all of baseball during his prime. Even a couple of years removed from that, Bedard still remains a quality pitcher. He’s 2-5t hanks to low run support, but carries a 3.07 ERA and 44 Ks in 41 IP. I always value that trait whether or not a guy averages more than a strikeout per inning because it means he can single-handedly get himself out of any jam, as well as keep baserunners right where they are without the ball going into play. That will offset his satisfactory 1.34 WHIP. The only tough part concerning Bedard at this point in time is that he’s coming off his only outing of the season in which he gave up more than two earned runs, when he allowed four on the road against theNationals. Therefore, since Bedard is pretty much facing his first bit of adversity this season, that may involve the mental aspect of his game a lot more than usual, which we are mostly unaware of, since this isn’t the same dominant Erik Bedard we grew used to when he was in Baltimore and Seattle. At the same time, though, that was his first start after leaving his previous one early due to back spasms, so that may have had an impact as well. He’s almost another week removed from that injury so I think he’s fine right now, and against the Mets, has an opportunity to get back on track. It’ll be close, but if my worst-case scenario for this game is 5-2, we’ll be in good shape.
Chicago Cubs @ Houston Astros (Co-Best Bet) - $133 for $115
Matt Garza vs Bud Norris
UNDER 7
If you’re a regular reader of mine, you know that Bud Norris is my favorite pitcher in all of baseball (Slightly ahead of James McDonald and JA Happ), and because of that, I have an extremely good sense for his games. The stats back it up, as I was 11-6-1 on Bud Norris over/unders last year, and am thus far 3-1 on his over/unders this year (The one loss being an under I had a couple of Saturday nights ago when he owned the Cardinals, just as he ALWAYS does, which is the main reason I took the under for that game. So in other words, I was still 100-percent right on him and should be 4-0). The majority of those wins came specifically from taking the under, which is exactly what we have here. If you’ve been paying attention to the guy, you would know he’s clearly back in his rhythm after a sluggish start to 2012. In fact, he’s only given up just ONE earned run over his past three starts, spanning 19 innings. In those frames, he has also struck out 21 batters. Norris did struggle a bit in the very beginning of the season, but a lot of good pitchers do because it has much more to do with mindset and getting back into the flow of things than it does talent, hence why Norris is right back on his normal path. Trust me, when he’s on his game, he’s as good as anybody out there, and since he’s hit his stride this month, I expect Norris to keep it up in this contest against the Cubs at home, where he excels at his best. Just look at the splits for yourself: 3.89 career home ERA, compared to a 4.66 career ERA on the road. It’s become even more evident in 2012, as he owns a 2.03 ERA and 1.05 WHIP at Minute Maid versus a 5.32 ERA and 1.39 WHIP on the road.
Then there is Matt Garza, who my 2011 stats indicate I know very well (7-1 on his over/unders last year, somehow), but to be quite honest, I don’t feel like I know him that well at all. I always liked his potential in Minnesota and thought he would break out as an upper-tier starter in this league, but I feel like it’s not often at all where I get a sense for one of his over/unders. In other words, when I was doing the full in-depth stat breakdown of my 2011performance, and saw my final record with Garza, I was actually shocked, and I feel it had more to do with my knowledge on the other pitcher he’d be facing. Thus far in 2012, I’m 1-1 with him, but given his success this season, there’s no reason not to believe that he can go pitch-for-pitch with Bud Norris on his turf on this very night. After all, Garza’s numbers look remarkable: 2-1, 2.58 ERA, 1.04 WHIP (!), and 41 Ks in 45 IP. Furthermore, he has a very good track record against the Astros in four career starts (3.00 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 27:8 K:BB ratio in 30 IP), including two starts last year when he yielded only five runs and 12 hits to them in 16 innings. All the stats support this being a pitcher’s duel at Minute Maid tonight.
And just on a personal aside, I find it interesting that Bud Norris will be entering a potential duel on this specific Monday of all. OFF THE TOP OF MY HEAD (This is where my Bud Norris obsession gets a little scary), I recall this exact Monday last year (May 23) being his showdown in Houston against Clayton Kershaw, which was one of my biggest bets of the 2011 season. I note this because it was also one of my favorite pitcher’s duels of the ENTIRE SEASON (And I watch multiple baseball games every day), but it was ruined by the Dodgers bullpen. It was 3-1 going into the bottom of the ninth, and there were even two instances where the Astros were down to their final strike (One time with only a runner on first base!), yet somehow pulled off the comeback and won 4-3, costing me a huge win, ultimately resulting in a heart-breaking push. So, yeah, while that game has really no effect on this one, I just find it funny how distinctly I remember that game, and perhaps tonight’s Bud Norris affair on the exact same Monday one year later will maybe give me a chance to avenge it, and perhaps right the wrong from one year ago. Funny how life mirrors itself in strange ways sometimes, doesn't it?
Other 5/21 MLB Over/Unders I’m Taking:
Yu Darvish vs Felix Hernandez UNDER 6.5 - $41 for $35
Mike Minor vs Mike Leake OVER 9 - $27 for $25
Gio Gonzalez vs Kyle Kendrick OVER 7 - $24 for $20
**May Add More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**
