UFC 146 thoughts?

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To all you UFC guys out there, tell me why I shouldn't bet JDS to bank Mir?

I know -500 a big price but what is Mir gonna do? This dude couldn't even finish Nelson and looked terrible vs Crocop, got killed by Lesnar/Carwin the only times he has ever fought the new breed of heavyweights....

I don't see how JDS doesn't KO him. Shit JDS jab probably hits harder than Mir's overhand right.
 

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Yea, Mir can submit any heavyweight given the opportunity... He probably gets knocked out, but too much risk imo
 

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How do you submit someone you can't takedown?

Crocop a good k1 kickboxer? Crocop has a losing record in the UFC and Mir looked like shit vs him...

Lesnar/Carwin the only fighters even close to JDS (the new breed of HWs) and both of them schooled Mir. He hasn't beaten anyone who is actually relevant in heavyweight MMA right now.
 

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JDS is better no doubt and if the fight stays standing, Mir has next to no chance. But he "could" get JDS down and submit him, he did the same against Nog. He was losing and getting hit but then broke the dudes arm.

I'm not saying Mir will win but I wouldn't lay -500 on JDS either.
 

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Nog isn't even close to being in the same league as JDS. What has Nog done lately?

I just don't see how JD loses to this guy...Mir? You kiddng me? Only reason he even got the title shot is because he knows how to talk a lot of shit really well and that can sell a fight on short notice. Also he is a big "name"
 

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How do you submit someone you can't takedown?

Crocop a good k1 kickboxer? Crocop has a losing record in the UFC and Mir looked like shit vs him...

Lesnar/Carwin the only fighters even close to JDS (the new breed of HWs) and both of them schooled Mir. He hasn't beaten anyone who is actually relevant in heavyweight MMA right now.

Yea, very unlikely, I agree.
 

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So backup the truck on the -500? Glad you guys agree...

He would've killed 'Reem too I think, any opinions you guys wanna add on that if you got nothing to add to Mir?
 

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Lesnar and Carwin are also high-ranking wrestlers who forced Mir into trading punches since he couldn't take them down. JDS has shown good takedown defense but doesn't have any sort of wrestling background that makes me think he'll be as resistant to a takedown as those elite wrestlers.

Carwin and Cane couldn't take down JDS but Mir is? Carwin took him down once and he just got right back up....

Is Mir some takedown specialist that I'm unaware of now or something? Who has he taken down worth a damn?
 

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Carwin and Cane couldn't take down JDS but Mir is? Carwin took him down once and he just got right back up....

Is Mir some takedown specialist that I'm unaware of now or something? Who has he taken down worth a damn?

This is a little short sighted... Mir has won more UFC fights than Carwin and Velasquez have even fought in - and most by sub - I'd say that experience counts for something. Mir got trounced by Brock and Carwin, but they both had weight and reach advantages, whereas JDS does not.

I do think Mir gets KO'd - he's just not quick enough to hang with JDS, but not touching it myself. BOL.
 

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This is a little short sighted... Mir has won more UFC fights than Carwin and Velasquez have even fought in - and most by sub - I'd say that experience counts for something. Mir got trounced by Brock and Carwin, but they both had weight and reach advantages, whereas JDS does not.

I do think Mir gets KO'd - he's just not quick enough to hang with JDS, but not touching it myself. BOL.

Experience is so overrated in the UFC its not even funny. It is my favorite betting angle when experience gets overrated. The sport has been popular for like 10 years, it is evolving so fast that guys like JDS, Cain, Carwin, even Lesnar own the HWs that came before them.

Wow he has won more fights than those guys have fought in, does that mean he is better than them or something? No, it means he has been around longer that is about it. The only experience he has fighting the top competition of today is getting his ass beat. I think that is much more significant than the fact he subbed the great Tim Sylvia 7 years ago...
 

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Experience is so overrated in the UFC its not even funny. It is my favorite betting angle when experience gets overrated. The sport has been popular for like 10 years, it is evolving so fast that guys like JDS, Cain, Carwin, even Lesnar own the HWs that came before them.

Wow he has won more fights than those guys have fought in, does that mean he is better than them or something? No, it means he has been around longer that is about it. The only experience he has fighting the top competition of today is getting his ass beat. I think that is much more significant than the fact he subbed the great Tim Sylvia 7 years ago...


WOW you call yourself a gambler and you want to bet a -500 in a contact sport that one punch can end a fight. That makes you a very very very bad gambler. Real gamblers never touch -500 in anything.

Do I see Mir winning? No but do I see it that he has no shot in a sport of a 250lb guy is throwing punches and can also sub anyone in the world? No

Why don't you just pass on this fight and sit back and enjoy it. I will be watching this fight for sure
 

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Mir has faced three K1 kickboxers lately. He subbed Kongo and Hardonk in under a minute and a half and knocked out Crocop. He's better than you think. He may not win, but JDS isn't a -500 favorite IMO.



I agree in fact I might have to swing into the "pool hall" this weekend and see what the # is
 

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WOW you call yourself a gambler and you want to bet a -500 in a contact sport that one punch can end a fight. That makes you a very very very bad gambler. Real gamblers never touch -500 in anything.

Do I see Mir winning? No but do I see it that he has no shot in a sport of a 250lb guy is throwing punches and can also sub anyone in the world? No

Why don't you just pass on this fight and sit back and enjoy it. I will be watching this fight for sure

Not trying to get into a pissing contest about who isn't/is sharp but you wouldn't want to book my action...

-500, +400, -800.....You know what makes you a good gambler? Making +EV bets, you know what makes you a losing gambler? Making -EV bets....Thats about it in a nutshell, sorry....
 

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Mir has faced three K1 kickboxers lately. He subbed Kongo and Hardonk in under a minute and a half and knocked out Crocop. He's better than you think. He may not win, but JDS isn't a -500 favorite IMO.

Yeah, 3 guys who aren't remotely at a championship level. The only 2 guys he has faced in the last 3 years who are top UFC HWs in this day and age both tooled on him. Both the Crocop and Nelson fights had the crowd booing, he looked terrible in both fights.

I dunno, maybe he can win. We'll see.......If nothing else I appreciate the insight. Not many people on here into the MMA really...
 

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Yeah, 3 guys who aren't remotely at a championship level. The only 2 guys he has faced in the last 3 years who are top UFC HWs in this day and age both tooled on him. Both the Crocop and Nelson fights had the crowd booing, he looked terrible in both fights.

I dunno, maybe he can win. We'll see.......If nothing else I appreciate the insight. Not many people on here into the MMA really...


Lots of us are into MMA. Thats why we think laying -500 is a bad bad bet. When Mir has power and he can also submit him at any second laying -500 is a horrible bet.

There is just no value at the price. How much are you going to put on him to try to win how much money? Just not worth it in this sport. I would put 200 on Mir and watch the fight
 

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He looked terrible but was beating them up and won both fights. Winning a boring fight is the same as winning an exciting fight when it comes to betting. He obviously didn't want to go balls to the wall because he's realized he doesn't take punches well. Mir fought cautious and picked them both apart. He's only lost to overpowering wrestlers lately and Dos Santos doesn't come close to fitting into that category. I just don't see -500. -300 or -350 seems more legit.

I assume you are taking Mir if you think the true line is -300 to -350 and Mir is +430 on the site I am looking at.
 

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Yeah I'll have a small bet on Mir. Not my favorite fight on the card but I think JDS is overpriced.

What else do you like just curious? I liked Cormier this weekend and forgot to bet it, knew that dude would kill Barnett.

1 of my big tenets with MMA betting is that experience often gets so overrated, the sport has been popular like 6 years... It is evolving so fast that what someone did in 2006 means nothing.
 

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Nog isn't even close to being in the same league as JDS. What has Nog done lately?

I just don't see how JD loses to this guy...Mir? You kiddng me? Only reason he even got the title shot is because he knows how to talk a lot of shit really well and that can sell a fight on short notice. Also he is a big "name"

Pats are YOU in the JDS corner for the fight? You seem pretty fired up about us not saying bet the farm on a -500 bet. Of course the odds are JDS is going to win and you probably will. Just not worth the risk even for such an obviously sharp better as yourself.

Nog is not JDS, not even close but that wasn't my point. Mir was getting beat up and got rocked yet scrambled and broke his arm, that's all I'm saying. I haven't seen JDS on the ground, maybe because he has good TDD, but it could also be he isn't comfortable on the ground and if Mir somehow gets him there, who knows. Nog is/was no slouch on the ground and MIR handled him pretty easily there, again I have no clue what JDS can or can't do on the ground because he is never there.

GL
 

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Pats are YOU in the JDS corner for the fight? You seem pretty fired up about us not saying bet the farm on a -500 bet. Of course the odds are JDS is going to win and you probably will. Just not worth the risk even for such an obviously sharp better as yourself.

Nog is not JDS, not even close but that wasn't my point. Mir was getting beat up and got rocked yet scrambled and broke his arm, that's all I'm saying. I haven't seen JDS on the ground, maybe because he has good TDD, but it could also be he isn't comfortable on the ground and if Mir somehow gets him there, who knows. Nog is/was no slouch on the ground and MIR handled him pretty easily there, again I have no clue what JDS can or can't do on the ground because he is never there.

GL

I am not that fired up, just was saying a lot of the reasons people think Mir can win are pretty fluffy (i.e his past record, his submission of Nog)

I think the dude saying "WOW you call yourself a gambler" is the fired up one, lol.
 

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Lots of us are into MMA. Thats why we think laying -500 is a bad bad bet. When Mir has power and he can also submit him at any second laying -500 is a horrible bet.

There is just no value at the price. How much are you going to put on him to try to win how much money? Just not worth it in this sport. I would put 200 on Mir and watch the fight

Do you criticize everything I say? I was just saying not many are into MMAA at the RX compared to other sports. Hell, I don't even like MMA that much compared to boxing.

Ok, put 200 on Mir with his power (lol, has he KOd anyone worth a damn recently)

Also who cares what I will bet? The whole point of this thread should be is JDS at -500 +EV or not....You guys all seem to think it isn't which is fine but that is largely irrelevant to the discussion.
 

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