The Cat's MLB Over/Under Bets & Detailed Writeups - May 22, 2012 - YTD: 117-116-10

2012 MLB O/U Record: 117-116-10, -$510
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104


Wow, yesterday was quite… humbling. It’s a real shame, as I produced two real quality best bets, one the result of my bold prediction of Bud Norris’continued evolution transforming into a superstar pitcher turning out true. All we needed was Matt Garza, along with his then-2.58 ERA and then-1.04 WHIP, to give a semi-decent effort against a team he has owned throughout his entire career, not to mention one of the lower-ranked offenses in the league that was already missing their most dynamic player (Not their best) Jordan Schafer. I don’t care what the result was; that was as good a bet as you can come up with, as long asy our bold stipulation turns out true, which it did in Bud Norris tallying up another seven shutout innings to continue his impressive streak of only allowing one earned run in 26 innings. But Garza inexplicably got rocked, and the worst part was that it was all MENTAL, as every run he gave up came with two outs. In fact, in each of those rallies, there was originally nobody on base with two outs, so after allowing a walk and a hit in each situation, he just imploded, and voila, despite the low number of hits, he enabled the Astros cash in via the long ball. That could’ve been so easily avoidable, making that loss incredibly frustrating. As for Santana vs Bedard, all the evidence pointed to an under with a line as high as 7, and it’s just unfortunate that disgusting Mets lineup that didn’t even have some of their key starters, and instead plating more than half of a lineup that regularly hits under .220, was able toget four runs off Bedard right away. But you keep your head up and move on…


**Dollar Amounts To Be Posted Later Leading Up To Gametime**


Atlanta Braves @ Cincinnati Reds
Brandon Beachy vs Mat Latos
OVER 7/7.5 (Waiting to see if it drops to 7. Will still take if it stays 7.5)

I’m not going to say if this is my best bet for the day just yet, as I’m still not sure of my full gameplan for tonight’s slate after I was clearly rattled from last night’s action. In any case, Mat Latos is a guy I know very well, as I jumped on his bandwagon as soon as he made his debut in 2009. After watching him initially, I thought there was no way this guy wouldn’t develop into an ace, especially pitching in pitcher-friendly Petco Park, and of course, he became just that for the Padres. Unfortunately, when he was traded to Cincinnati this past offseason, I acquired the vibe that his performance would suffer, and that’s been the case as well, as evident in his gross 4.63 ERA and 1.52 WHIP. My over/under stats back up my knowledge on him as well, as I was7-2-1 on his over/unders last year, and am out to a 2-0 start with him in 2012. The thing that makes Latos so easy to bet on, especially at this point in time, is because he ADMITTED to feeling the pressure of being a cornerstone franchise pitcher playing on a new team. He also admitted he’s still in the process of making adjustments, and when you combine that with the fact that he’s still feeling pressure of being a player that was traded to a team for four players (Obviously it's in the front of his mind), well, it easily affects him mentally, and it’s definitely showing in his 2012 statline. Considering this is set to air on MLB Network, that could be another mental obstacle for Mr. Latos, so I see Atlanta bouncing back from last night’s offensive dismal effort to tag him for a few.

Then there’s Brandon Beachy, who is just pitching out of this world. Does he have the stuff to be a consistent upper-rotation pitcher in this league? Yes he does. I don’t necessarily think he’s going to be an ace-caliber pitcher at any point in his career, but the potential is there, and going based on stats, he might be the best pitcher in 2012 thus far. After all, when you’re 5-1 with a 1.33 ERA and 0.89 WHIP through eight starts to begin the season, you’re just in complete control of everything. Of course, he’s not that good, and it’s inevitable that his performance will start to come down a bit, which I anticipate begins taking place tonight at hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark. He pitched there once last year and had modest success over six innings in a no-decision, but I just see this as one of those nights where the Reds have their bats going. I’d wait for the line to drop to 7, though, which it has a very good chance of doing.


Other 5/22 MLB Over/Unders I’m Taking:
Travis Wood vs JA Happ UNDER 8
RA Dickey vs James McDonald UNDER 7
Luke Hochevar vs Phil Hughes OVER 9
CJ Wilson vs Graham Godfrey UNDER 6.5/7 (Waiting for line to go up to 7. Willstill take if it stays 6.5)
PJ Walters vs Gavin Floyd OVER 8/8.5 (Waiting for line to go down to 8. Will stilltake if it stays 8.5)


**May Add More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**

I'm all over the place tonight with several over/unders to get back into my rhythm after last night's disaster. Here are my final amounts for my 7 o'clock games...

Beachy vs Latos OVER 7.5 - $42 for $42
Dickey vs McDonald UNDER 7 - $22 for $20 (These two had a nice duel last year)
Hochevar vs Hughes OVER 9 - $21 for $20
Porcello vs Jimenez UNDER 9 - $18 for $15

I'll be back in an hour with my 8 o'clock totals. Food for thought: Why has my Travis Wood vs JA Happ under been at 8 all day? Should be 8.5, Vegas obviously sides with the under as well

Added another 10 for 10 on Beachy vs Latos over 7.5

And now my 8 o'clock affairs...

Walters vs Floyd OVER 8 - $32 for $30 (Should be at least 6-2)
Wood vs Happ UNDER 8 - $32 for $27 (Nice to see Travis Wood back, he has a Major League arm. And I know Happ as well as anybody; third favorite pitcher behind Bud Norris & James McDonald)

Good luck tonight .... always enjoy reading your analysis.

Thanks for the feedback geno.

And now my final game, a small one because the line is a half-run lower than it should be:

CJ Wilson vs Graham Godfrey UNDER 6.5 - $17 for $15

One of the best posters on this entire site...that's alot for me to say as I'm from the hockey forum (best @ rx).

1) great reasoning and posts, I believe your balance will catch up in due time.

2) I'm not going to do the math but IF you flat wagered you would be down a lot less than $510. Just something to think about.

I know you pride yourself on MLB totals and from what I've seen no one does the work you do. All I'm saying is this with all the unknows in MLB and things involved or not with totals wouldn't just a set wager amount for all wagers be better for you? At 117-116 you might be down $200 on flat wager (juice) but instead your down $510. I'm not suggesting you change anything as againg your one of the best posters in awhile, just offering a differnet point of view.

Best of Luck!

when I said (best @ rx) I meant the hockey forum, not me. $

nojuice9 said:

One of the best posters on this entire site...that's alot for me to say as I'm from the hockey forum (best @ rx).

1) great reasoning and posts, I believe your balance will catch up in due time.

2) I'm not going to do the math but IF you flat wagered you would be down a lot less than $510. Just something to think about.

I know you pride yourself on MLB totals and from what I've seen no one does the work you do. All I'm saying is this with all the unknows in MLB and things involved or not with totals wouldn't just a set wager amount for all wagers be better for you? At 117-116 you might be down $200 on flat wager (juice) but instead your down $510. I'm not suggesting you change anything as againg your one of the best posters in awhile, just offering a differnet point of view.

Best of Luck!

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Thank you, I really appreciate that, especially coming from a longstanding veteran here at these forums such as yourself. It's feedback like this that keeps me going in the manner that I perform every single day. I genuinely appreciate that and am glad people are taking notice of me (Although it completely, completely rattles me that my record is what it is. Ugh)

And you know what, you are completely right. A friend of mine actually brought this point up to me last year, in revealing to me that I would have made much, much more money had I gone with your idea. While I did make a solid $1,104 (Last year I was making mostly smaller bets. For example, I only did a handful of $100 bets the whole year, compared to this year when I've done several numerous $100+ ones already), I would have made $6,900 had I simply bet a flat rate on each game of $100 at the normal -110 juice. The math would have worked as followed: [366 wins x $100 = $36,600] - [270 losses x $110 = $29,700] = $6,900. BUT, I don't do this for one main reason: I'm unfortunately an extremely stubborn person. I believe mentality is everything, and I feel grouping all the games together might affect me mentally (Ex. Losing $110 on a game that I didn't really feel strongly about compared to winning $100 on a game I was very sure on. That mindset potentially could snowball on me in the days after), but at the same time, you're probably right. If I carry a steady mindset every single day when I do my over/under procedures, I'd probably be a lot better off. I appreciate you re-emphasizing this tip to me because at some point, if these highs and lows continue for me to the point where I'm continually not making any money as the next few weeks go by, it's something I may have to do.

At the end of the day, I'm not worried about the money at all. There is no doubt in my mind whatsoever that I will be up in the end. I just work WAYYYYYYY too hard at this to not get anything back in the end, and I say that with 100-percent confidence because I'm doing the SAME EXACT THING I did last year, only with more effort involved because for the first time, I'm writing about and detailing my journey. Thus, because I'm doing that, I'm doing more research and analysis each day in effort to convince everyone to follow me and take my bets. So again, I'm not worried at all about the money because this same routine, except with MORE work involved, led me to be 366-270-42 betting literally every single day - quite honestly one of the greatest accomplishments of my entire life (After all, how many people can say they had a successful season like that in gambling? Even if it's only season, it's still six consecutive months of my life)

The only concern is my record. It bothers me EVERY SINGLE DAY that, No. 1, I did not post here last year, nor anywhere at all. You guys would have absolutely loved me; I was just in so many consistent grooves all year that I felt like I was invincible. In fact, the only two extended rough patches I hit were this time a year ago (I graduated from college on May 21, 2011. Thus, I was very stressed about papers and finals leading up to that that I wasn't full focused on baseball) and last July, when I had girl issues that clearly got in my way of baseball (July was the ONLY month I had a .500 record or worse last year. Was 54-54-1). It was so much fun just being fully locked in for most of the season and being rewarded for it. Just such a great ride that 2011 season. Loved it.

It also bothers me because I made a committment to myself that not only would I improve on my record from last year, but also to prove to myself that I wasn't just a one-year fluke. I've shown shades of my former self (Undefeated days like my 8-0 one; extended great stretches; a week couple of weeks ago where I made over $700), but it's just not sticking, and that is just very upsetting to me. I also wanted to genuinely prove that I could legitimately be the best MLB Over/Unders guy out there, because of the success I had last year and the serious work I put into it on a daily basis, not to mention maybe exploring a potential career of covering this stuff every day and being paid for it, since I have my journalism degree and my knowledge, as you have all seen, is top-notch when it comes to starting pitchers. But again, it's not showing in my record and that just kills me every day when I think about it.

Thank you again for the feedback. Like I said, interacting with everyone here keeps me going strong, and I will continue to do this every single day the entire season, just as I vowed when I first started posting here. I 100-percent know I'll financially be fine when this is all said and done - the key for me is at least finishing close to where I was last year, record-wise. So for those who have stuck with me this long, I cannot stress enough that you will be rewarded in the end. When a man who is good at something is further motivated to be the very best, and is at rock bottom at this point in time (Based on my record), well, it's inevitable that I turn it around.

As for today's performance, I'll take it, as despite not really making any money, I'm 4-2 for the evening, with a chance at going 5-2 if this Wilson vs Godfrey under can justtt hang on.

The only killer was that Beachy vs Latos over 7.5... again, all it turns out to be is yet another loss by a half-run. I mean, it's a killer because: 1)It was 4-2 in the 4th inning, meaning both pitchers did not have their best stuff tonight. I couldn't get two more measley runs in the last 5.5 innings? Come onn 2)Brandon Beachy is the NL Cy Young if the season ended today. He has not had one off start all year; I call for it tonight and I get it (Although 7 innings, 4 runs isn't bad, but for him it's off) and I'm not rewarded with a win. I ACCEPT the loss, though, because like I said in my analysis, I was waiting for the line to drop to 7 all day because of the potential 5-2/4-3 outcome. The extra juice was on under 7.5 for a reason, and since it didn't drop, I forced it a bit and paid the price. It happens and I'll take it in stride.

Anything for Wed, Cat? Best of luck.

varkeyboy said:

Anything for Wed, Cat? Best of luck.

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Lol it's May 23rd and I haven't missed one day the whole season with these 1,500 word articles. Of course I have something for today, it'll be posted in a few minutes.

Cool brotha.