2012 MLB O/U Record: 122-118-10, -$476
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104
Very nice 5-2 day yesterday, as while I didn’t make much money from accomplishing that, it’s the fact that I put on a performance like that just one day after my rare miserable Monday, a day that easily could have snowballed and significantly hurt me collectively over a few days, if not more. Instead, I kind of laid low and simply got back into my rhythm, which is a positive because it restores my confidence, especially heading into arguably my toughest day of the week, Wednesday. Luckily, there is some potential to cure my Wednesday woes (55-40-4 on Wednesdays last year but just 10-20-1 on Wednesdays this year. Yuck) so let’s move on to it…
(Posting this early because I have a 1 o’clock game. I will have a couple of more write-ups a bit later on.)
Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays - $84 for $65 ($16 for $15 of this is on U7)
Ricky Romero vs James Shields
UNDER 7.5
Any time you get a vibe for an under on a Ricky Romero day game, especially at home or on any type of indoor turf like he’ll be playing on today, you run with it,and there’s easy reasoning for that. One, we all know of Romero’s emergence over recent years, even in the very competitive American League East, in which he has actually established himself as a legitimate ace. For those that question that sentiment, when you cap off an excellent two-year stretch with a 2.92 ERA and 1.14 WHIP, as he registered in the 2011 season, while regularly playing the competition that he plays, well, you’re an ace in my book, and it’s a role he can relish as that talented pitching staff continues to grow, while he serves as the veteran anchor of it. Most important of all, as I alluded to in my opening sentence, is that Romero’s split stats are as significant as anyone else’s out there, in that it’s CLEAR he loves pitching during the day and indoors on turf. Every year, his numbers have been much better at home at the Rogers Centre, but overall, when you consider his indoor stats compared to his outdoor stats, it’s like night and day. Take last year, for example, when he posted a 2.30 ERA and 1.01 WHIP in a closed setting, while finishing up with a 3.14 ERA and 1.18 WHIP outside. That’s no coincidence as it was even more glowing in 2010, when his indoor stats (1.94 ERA, 0.91 WHIP) easily bested his outdoor performance (4.23 ERA, 1.40 WHIP). Throw in the fact that Romero likes stepping up even more for big games and duels like this one, so him throwing a gem this afternoon seems very likely.
Opposingh im will be another fellow ace in James Shields, who is very similar to Romeroin terms of that indoors versus outdoors trend. While it hasn’t been as obvious this year, all you have to do is examine his career numbers as a WHOLE: 104 starts indoors, leading to a 3.42 ERA and 1.19 WHIP; 90 starts outdoors, leading to a 4.61 ERA and 1.31 WHIP. Uh, that’s pretty significant. Also throw in the fact that Shields has always pitched better at home (42-27, 3.39 ERA, and 1.18 WHIP) compared to on the road (36-38, 4.59 ERA, 1.30 WHIP). Again, another very significant trend, especially when it’s over a FULL run difference! I’ll add more to the fire: He’s also a proven better daytime pitcher (66 career starts, 3.49 ERA, 1.12 WHIP) than he is at night (127 career starts, 4.20 ERA, 1.30 WHIP). That’s three important scenarios where Shields clearly displays he’s a better pitcher. He’s obviously still an ace, especially after his all-star 2011campaign. This year, he’s 6-2 with a 3.77 ERA and 1.29 WHIP, to go along with 56 strikeouts in 59 innings. What’s not to like here? You have two aces dealing in their favorite settings matched up against one another, and their attitudes on the mound indicate they enjoy pitching in these big-time matchups. This has to go under.
I’ll be back a bit later with my other picks for today, but this one should start us out nicely.
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104
Very nice 5-2 day yesterday, as while I didn’t make much money from accomplishing that, it’s the fact that I put on a performance like that just one day after my rare miserable Monday, a day that easily could have snowballed and significantly hurt me collectively over a few days, if not more. Instead, I kind of laid low and simply got back into my rhythm, which is a positive because it restores my confidence, especially heading into arguably my toughest day of the week, Wednesday. Luckily, there is some potential to cure my Wednesday woes (55-40-4 on Wednesdays last year but just 10-20-1 on Wednesdays this year. Yuck) so let’s move on to it…
(Posting this early because I have a 1 o’clock game. I will have a couple of more write-ups a bit later on.)
Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays - $84 for $65 ($16 for $15 of this is on U7)
Ricky Romero vs James Shields
UNDER 7.5
Any time you get a vibe for an under on a Ricky Romero day game, especially at home or on any type of indoor turf like he’ll be playing on today, you run with it,and there’s easy reasoning for that. One, we all know of Romero’s emergence over recent years, even in the very competitive American League East, in which he has actually established himself as a legitimate ace. For those that question that sentiment, when you cap off an excellent two-year stretch with a 2.92 ERA and 1.14 WHIP, as he registered in the 2011 season, while regularly playing the competition that he plays, well, you’re an ace in my book, and it’s a role he can relish as that talented pitching staff continues to grow, while he serves as the veteran anchor of it. Most important of all, as I alluded to in my opening sentence, is that Romero’s split stats are as significant as anyone else’s out there, in that it’s CLEAR he loves pitching during the day and indoors on turf. Every year, his numbers have been much better at home at the Rogers Centre, but overall, when you consider his indoor stats compared to his outdoor stats, it’s like night and day. Take last year, for example, when he posted a 2.30 ERA and 1.01 WHIP in a closed setting, while finishing up with a 3.14 ERA and 1.18 WHIP outside. That’s no coincidence as it was even more glowing in 2010, when his indoor stats (1.94 ERA, 0.91 WHIP) easily bested his outdoor performance (4.23 ERA, 1.40 WHIP). Throw in the fact that Romero likes stepping up even more for big games and duels like this one, so him throwing a gem this afternoon seems very likely.
Opposingh im will be another fellow ace in James Shields, who is very similar to Romeroin terms of that indoors versus outdoors trend. While it hasn’t been as obvious this year, all you have to do is examine his career numbers as a WHOLE: 104 starts indoors, leading to a 3.42 ERA and 1.19 WHIP; 90 starts outdoors, leading to a 4.61 ERA and 1.31 WHIP. Uh, that’s pretty significant. Also throw in the fact that Shields has always pitched better at home (42-27, 3.39 ERA, and 1.18 WHIP) compared to on the road (36-38, 4.59 ERA, 1.30 WHIP). Again, another very significant trend, especially when it’s over a FULL run difference! I’ll add more to the fire: He’s also a proven better daytime pitcher (66 career starts, 3.49 ERA, 1.12 WHIP) than he is at night (127 career starts, 4.20 ERA, 1.30 WHIP). That’s three important scenarios where Shields clearly displays he’s a better pitcher. He’s obviously still an ace, especially after his all-star 2011campaign. This year, he’s 6-2 with a 3.77 ERA and 1.29 WHIP, to go along with 56 strikeouts in 59 innings. What’s not to like here? You have two aces dealing in their favorite settings matched up against one another, and their attitudes on the mound indicate they enjoy pitching in these big-time matchups. This has to go under.
I’ll be back a bit later with my other picks for today, but this one should start us out nicely.
