The Cat's MLB Over/Under Bets & Detailed Writeups - May 24, 2012 - YTD: 124-122-11

2012 MLB O/U Record: 124-122-11, -$535
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104


Of course, I was robbed of one of my two best bets from Wednesday’s slate. Diamond vs Sale under worked without a sweat, as expected, and Romero vs Shields under was on its way before Joel Peralta blew yet another under of mine. Joe Maddon is a much smarter manager and simply needs to realize that this year’s Peralta is not even close to the same as last year’s, and therefore should not be the eighth-inning set-up man.


Anyway, posting this early because I have the only matinee on the schedule…


Justin Verlander vs Justin Masterson UNDER 7 - $23 for $20

Not really going to do a write-up for this one, although I will offer some basic analysis. Everyone obviously knows Justin Verlander and taking an under with him in it is always comfortable. The key will be Justin Masterson, who has dropped off somewhat dramatically from last year. I even said last year that would happen, as he was out-pitching his actual talent in 2011, but given his numbers that he’s posted thus far in 2012, he’s not this bad. I made a comparison equating him to the modern day Rick Helling and I stand by that, meaning Masterson’s numbers will start to comedown a bit. He’s looked encouraging recently and I think that will continue here today.


Obviously, my much longer write-ups will be posted a little later in the day, with an interesting best bet. Let’s just say for now it involves one of the pitchers I know better than anyone in the country, who I’m already 2-0 with in his two starts… ERIC STULTS. Should be promising.

Ah, just saw my favorite hitter for an under: LOU MARSON. This guy is as dead a bat as you will find in baseball. In 2010, I was pounding Indian unders a lot because him and Luis Valbuena (Remember him?) were always in the starting lineup, meaning that's two automatic outs in the lineup. Back then (Even though it was only two years ago), it was RARE to find over/under lines less than 7 so they always put you in a comfortable position with lines as high as that. Now Vegas has lines less than 7 on a daily basis as if they grew on trees, but luckily the line for this game is 7.

Thanks for winner Cat. Was able to get ev money as over was pounded before first pitch

moocow said:

Thanks for winner Cat. Was able to get ev money as over was pounded before first pitch

Click to expand...

No problem. Wow I wonder why people were pounding the over. I wish there was some forum out there in which thousands and thousands of bettors were able to post their reasoning for certain bets - like this one. Justin Verlander is probably the last pitcher you want associated in an over, and if these people watch the games, they'd know Justin Masterson is better than his stats and has had some bad luck this year. Unless it was the "Well, it's the only afternoon game on today and I'll root for runs to be scored" reasoning, well, that's just not good haha

Alright, and here's the rest of my card from this shortened Thursday slate...


San Diego Padres @ New York Mets(Best Bet) - $110 for $95
Eric Stults vs Jeremy Hefner
UNDER 8

It’s become glaring that I’ve made much of seemingly random pitcher Eric Stults already this year. While he’s only made two starts, I just still find it incredibly fascinating that a guy who fared acceptably as a starting pitcher in 2009 to the point I remember him distinctly with the Dodgers, only to not start another game since then until this year, is just strange. And he’s been fabulous in those two 2012 starts, first as a member of the Chicago White Sox when he limited the Indians on a Monday night on the road to four hits and two runs over six innings. He inexplicably was put on waivers by the White Sox shortly after (Because Chris Sale went back into the rotation? My timeline might be off) and was claimed right away by the Padres, with whom he made his first start this past Saturday night to out-duel DAN HAREN at home. He went 6.2 innings, giving up four hits and two runs again, which is impressive coming against Mark Trumbo and Co. (Until Albert Pujols comes around, Trumbo, an inevitable 40-home run hitter, leads that offense). I like Stults and see him continuing his successful return to relevancy here tonight. I’ve watched both of his starts, not to mention watched him a couple of times in 2009, and the guy just knows how to pitch and pace himself effectively. As a result, he stands out in my mind.

The tougher draw to this under bet may be the guy starting opposite him, Jeremy Hefner, who also happens to be making his first career Major League start. Listen, that’s always a tough variable because there’s NOTHING quite like that mindset you enter when you step on the mound, bound to making your first ever start. But, in our favor, is the fact that Hefner has already made two appearances, both being very successful long-relief outings. I watched him in his Major League debut (That Monday afternoon Batista vs Lincecum game from several weeks back) and after his three shutout innings that day, I texted one of my Met fan friends, “This kid Jeremy Hefner of your Mets looks impressive. He’s got a future as a starter I must say.” (In case you don’t believe me, I could easily take a picture of it from my iPhone). Lo and behold, here he is set to make his first big-league start, although that really shouldn’t come as a surprise as this guy has also had success in the minor leagues (2.72 ERA in seven starts in Triple A this year). I expect him to continue that as a Major League starter because from watching both of his relief appearances, he just seems to have “it.” He knows where to locate the baseball, and the thing that struck me most was his incredible poise on the mound. Hefner looks like one of those guys that has the proper make-up as a starting pitcher to succeed, and luckily for him, he draws the offensively-weak Padres as his first opponent. I’m VERY surprised the line is 8, and not 7 or 7.5, given this a Mets/Padres game at a pitcher’s park like Citi Field, so you have to capitalize on this potential Vegas blunder. Take comfort in going with this under.


Other 5/24 MLB Over/Unders I’m Taking:
Randall Delgado vs Homer Bailey OVER 9 - $33 for $30


**May Add More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**

Added another 10 for 10 on my Stults vs Hefner under 8

Of course, typical bullshit has gotten into my best bet. Both guys cruised through their first two innings before a 90 minute rain delay, and of course, Jeremy Hefner, making his first ever start, was completely out of his rhythm. Yet another ridiculous bad break

Cats, I really appreciate the level of effort you put into
your capping and enjoy reading your analysis. But a loss
is a loss and it gets very old how you always blame
your losses on bad luck versus just flat out a bad play.
Did you not consider the weather forecast in the Mets
game? How many of your Wins were by good luck? At
the end of the day you have posted ~ 250 plays and
batting .500. It is not my place to tell you how to
manage your threads but I would have tons of more
respect for you if you just accept the L's as easily as you
do your W's. Thanks again for your passion and awesome
analysis and I hope you take my comments as good
fashioned feedback instead of criticism. Good luck the
rest of the year!

DP5 said:

Cats, I really appreciate the level of effort you put into
your capping and enjoy reading your analysis. But a loss
is a loss and it gets very old how you always blame
your losses on bad luck versus just flat out a bad play.
Did you not consider the weather forecast in the Mets
game? How many of your Wins were by good luck? At
the end of the day you have posted ~ 250 plays and
batting .500. It is not my place to tell you how to
manage your threads but I would have tons of more
respect for you if you just accept the L's as easily as you
do your W's. Thanks again for your passion and awesome
analysis and I hope you take my comments as good
fashioned feedback instead of criticism. Good luck the
rest of the year!

Click to expand...

Thank you for the feedback, I appreciate it.

The only thing I'll argue is the point where you made in saying "a loss is a loss." That, in my opinion, is not a sentiment that bettors should hold. I believe morale victories exist within losses (Even though, unfortunately, the lost money stands), and I'll use that Stults vs Hefner under from last night as an example:

A)It was not the wrong bet. Period. It was the right bet, as evident in how both guys cruised through the first two innings (The one total run being an unearned run directly scored after the catcher threw the ball away on a steal attempt), and were well on their way to quality outings. It was also the right bet because it was a mistake by Vegas' part. Trust me, I've being doing this every single day for the past two seasons, and therefore have gained the sense of what an over/under line SHOULD be. The line for this game SHOULD have been 7.5, as Stults has shown no signs of slowing down, while Hefner, with his minor league success as a starter and his two recent dominant outings in long relief in the big leagues, was primed for a good start (He breezed through the first two innings before the delay). Just as important, this was a matchup between two of the weaker offenses in the National League pitted against each other in an extreme pitcher's park like Citi Field. The line should not have been as high as 8.

B)Of course I looked at the weather report, just as I always do. And what did it say? Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of rain. I live in New York (Long Island) and it didn't rain all day Thursday around my parts. In fact, it wasn't even raining by me when the game was delayed. Unfortunately, this was impossible to predict that it'd rain significant enough to cause a delay.

C)As a result, put yourself in the mind of Jeremy Hefner. You're amped up for your first ever Major League start, and you're cruising by the easy Padres hitters. Two innings down, your team has the lead, just continue in your rhythm against some of the weakest hitters in the league and you'll be fine. Then, out of nowhere, a 90-minute rain delay. What is going through your mind now? The excitement and buzz is suddenly gone, as this is never supposed to happen in one's first ever start. You lose your sense of urgency, which is critical to a pitcher, having to wait around 90 minutes before you can throw your next pitch. If I knew a delay like this were to occur, obviously I never would have bet the under, let alone put any bet on this game. It's a huge variable that's so rare, and it effected Hefner, like it would most pitchers, in a negative way. Following a delay in this type of circumstance occuring in your first ever start, you're most likely just going to go back out on the mound and "go through the motions," or in other words, leave most of your pitchers right out over the plate so your below-average opposing hitters can easily lace them into the outfield.

D)The main reason I made this bet was because of the extreme consistency displayed by Eric Stults so far. I've been right on every single one of his starts since he was rightfully placed back into a rotation for the first time since 2009, and he's been excellent. Last night, again, he was excellent. Am I rewarded? Of course not. Just another bad break for The Cat.

So you see, while a lot of this looks like whiny frustration, which is understandable, I just can't accept it as simply a "loss." I had the correct bet, just as I do most of the time, and a unique bad break got in my way that rewarded lucky over bettors with a "win." That's how my mindset works, and it's the same mindset I implemented in the same exact routine last year. Thus, I'm not worried at all and can say with certainty that this will be turned around.

Today's thread to be posted a bit later.

DP5 said:

Cats, I really appreciate the level of effort you put into
your capping and enjoy reading your analysis. But a loss
is a loss and it gets very old how you always blame
your losses on bad luck versus just flat out a bad play.
Did you not consider the weather forecast in the Mets
game? How many of your Wins were by good luck? At
the end of the day you have posted ~ 250 plays and
batting .500. It is not my place to tell you how to
manage your threads but I would have tons of more
respect for you if you just accept the L's as easily as you
do your W's. Thanks again for your passion and awesome
analysis and I hope you take my comments as good
fashioned feedback instead of criticism. Good luck the
rest of the year!

Click to expand...

CatsOverUnders said:

Thank you for the feedback, I appreciate it.

The only thing I'll argue is the point where you made in saying "a loss is a loss." That, in my opinion, is not a sentiment that bettors should hold. I believe morale victories exist within losses (Even though, unfortunately, the lost money stands), and I'll use that Stults vs Hefner under from last night as an example:

A)It was not the wrong bet. Period. It was the right bet, as evident in how both guys cruised through the first two innings (The one total run being an unearned run directly scored after the catcher threw the ball away on a steal attempt), and were well on their way to quality outings. It was also the right bet because it was a mistake by Vegas' part. Trust me, I've being doing this every single day for the past two seasons, and therefore have gained the sense of what an over/under line SHOULD be. The line for this game SHOULD have been 7.5, as Stults has shown no signs of slowing down, while Hefner, with his minor league success as a starter and his two recent dominant outings in long relief in the big leagues, was primed for a good start (He breezed through the first two innings before the delay). Just as important, this was a matchup between two of the weaker offenses in the National League pitted against each other in an extreme pitcher's park like Citi Field. The line should not have been as high as 8.

B)Of course I looked at the weather report, just as I always do. And what did it say? Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of rain. I live in New York (Long Island) and it didn't rain all day Thursday around my parts. In fact, it wasn't even raining by me when the game was delayed. Unfortunately, this was impossible to predict that it'd rain significant enough to cause a delay.

C)As a result, put yourself in the mind of Jeremy Hefner. You're amped up for your first ever Major League start, and you're cruising by the easy Padres hitters. Two innings down, your team has the lead, just continue in your rhythm against some of the weakest hitters in the league and you'll be fine. Then, out of nowhere, a 90-minute rain delay. What is going through your mind now? The excitement and buzz is suddenly gone, as this is never supposed to happen in one's first ever start. You lose your sense of urgency, which is critical to a pitcher, having to wait around 90 minutes before you can throw your next pitch. If I knew a delay like this were to occur, obviously I never would have bet the under, let alone put any bet on this game. It's a huge variable that's so rare, and it effected Hefner, like it would most pitchers, in a negative way. Following a delay in this type of circumstance occuring in your first ever start, you're most likely just going to go back out on the mound and "go through the motions," or in other words, leave most of your pitchers right out over the plate so your below-average opposing hitters can easily lace them into the outfield.

D)The main reason I made this bet was because of the extreme consistency displayed by Eric Stults so far. I've been right on every single one of his starts since he was rightfully placed back into a rotation for the first time since 2009, and he's been excellent. Last night, again, he was excellent. Am I rewarded? Of course not. Just another bad break for The Cat.

So you see, while a lot of this looks like whiny frustration, which is understandable, I just can't accept it as simply a "loss." I had the correct bet, just as I do most of the time, and a unique bad break got in my way that rewarded lucky over bettors with a "win." That's how my mindset works, and it's the same mindset I implemented in the same exact routine last year. Thus, I'm not worried at all and can say with certainty that this will be turned around.

Today's thread to be posted a bit later.

Click to expand...

Cats,

Here's my point - and please don't take this the wrong way as I like your write-ups, but lets get to the weather yesterday.

We had 84% humidity for this game. Hefner had only thrown a very limited # of innings this year so far, so it's already tough to get a read on him - then lets look at his historical stats. He's NOT a Fastball pitcher like the majority of the league is.

His stats are 38% fastball, 28% curve ball, 23% and 11% change-up. Too many of his pitches "dance". Well, in that humidity they don't dance.

I think you started in the right direction but downplayed the weather too much. Throw in the delay, which really screws things up, and bingo - bango you've gone over. I don't think Vegas posted the wrong total on the game - they posted the right total - Based on the Weather.

You've got a good mind for Totals in the MLB. I think you can get to 55%. Heck, I think you can get to 56% or even 57% if, and the big if, you check out everything.

good luck going forward - i'll keep reading.

oh, and thanks.

DP5 said:

Cats, I really appreciate the level of effort you put into
your capping and enjoy reading your analysis. But a loss
is a loss and it gets very old how you always blame
your losses on bad luck versus just flat out a bad play.
Did you not consider the weather forecast in the Mets
game? How many of your Wins were by good luck? At
the end of the day you have posted ~ 250 plays and
batting .500. It is not my place to tell you how to
manage your threads but I would have tons of more
respect for you if you just accept the L's as easily as you
do your W's. Thanks again for your passion and awesome
analysis and I hope you take my comments as good
fashioned feedback instead of criticism. Good luck the
rest of the year!

Click to expand...

Couldnt agree more with you. Just accept the loss as a loss, and move forward. No need to whine and moan about EVERY SINGLE LOSS....especially the best bets. Trust me, i enjoy all that u do here, enjoy your writeups, and only wish u the best.

billyjoejim said:

Cats,

Here's my point - and please don't take this the wrong way as I like your write-ups, but lets get to the weather yesterday.

We had 84% humidity for this game. Hefner had only thrown a very limited # of innings this year so far, so it's already tough to get a read on him - then lets look at his historical stats. He's NOT a Fastball pitcher like the majority of the league is.

His stats are 38% fastball, 28% curve ball, 23% and 11% change-up. Too many of his pitches "dance". Well, in that humidity they don't dance.

I think you started in the right direction but downplayed the weather too much. Throw in the delay, which really screws things up, and bingo - bango you've gone over. I don't think Vegas posted the wrong total on the game - they posted the right total - Based on the Weather.

You've got a good mind for Totals in the MLB. I think you can get to 55%. Heck, I think you can get to 56% or even 57% if, and the big if, you check out everything.

good luck going forward - i'll keep reading.

oh, and thanks.

Click to expand...

True. That's a good point concerning his pitch selection tied to the humidity, didn't really take that factor as much into consideration.

It's all just frustration on my part, as I'm clearly rattled. I'm not used to this. I'm not used to being a .500 bettor, MLB Over/Unders are my thing and I've never had an extended stretch like this. I surpassed all the percentages you mentioned last year (57.5% to be exact), which makes this all the more upsetting to me because I was primed to surpass that, putting in even more work this year than I did last year. It also helped last year, though, that I got out to an amazing start, and was easily able to then lock in and focus on games, without worrying about the record. This year, it's been on my mind every single day, which ruins flow as a bettor because it's all mental. I do my best work when my confidence is as high as possible because I go on long stretches of good betting (Like hitting, good betting is contagious), so I know I'll be fine in the end. It's just these rough stretches that really frustrate me.

Be back in a bit with today's write-ups with some very interesting Friday night games.

Go get em on FRIDAY!