Belmont Thoughts and Plays

elevenblack301 · May 25, 2012

:howdy: OK, guys and dolls, boys and girls, ladies and gentlemen, and all others ....it is time to get this party started..

We have a little more than two weeks before the big dance in NY, and it is going to be some party..............

Will or can I'll Have Another finally break thru and end the Triple Crown drought of more than 30 years ? He looks like he will, doesn't he ?

What say you about the contenders trying to knock him off the perch ?

----- can U Rags ( my top derby horse which slammed me big time ) get retribution and come down the stretch flying ?
------ or will Dullahan ruin it ?
------ maybe one of the others, although not much to choose from.....

It's going to be some day................ let's see if we can figure out how to play this race to maximize our ROI, if any....................

A BIG THANKS TO ALL OF YOU THAT CONTRIBUTE AND HELP WITH THIS THREAD, IT IS ALWAYS MUCH APPRECIATED !

elevenblack301 · May 25, 2012

:think2: The beginning of the numbers game.............. here we go.............

.........................# G Races..........# Races > 1 1/8..........Best Time 1 1/8

Alpha.........................5.............................2.........................1:50.4
Atigun........................3.............................1.........................1:50.4
Dullahan.....................6.............................3.........................1:47.4
Five Sixteen................0.............................2.........................1:51.3
Guyana Star Dweej......0.............................0......................
I’ll Have Another..........6.............................3.........................1.47.4
Optimizer...................9.............................3..........................1:52.3
Paynter......................2.............................1..........................1:48.2
Street Life..................2.............................2..........................1:48.2
Union Rags................6..............................2..........................1:48.4
Unstoppable U............0..............................0.......................

What does this tell us, just some stats to consider...............

Ketch · May 25, 2012

I think dullahan might run good here

elevenblack301 · May 25, 2012

Ketch said:
I think dullahan might run good here

You are probably right, think the distance suits him well......

Don'tCountOnIt · May 25, 2012

11Black I have been reading that IHA needs a "target" to shoot for down the stretch. With the race at 1-1/2 miles do you think there will be any speed horses in there to set a decent pace? IMO, speed horses can only set the pace in a race like this and certainly have no legitimate shot at winning. Your thoughts please?

Don'tCountOnIt · May 25, 2012

Something to think about, Five of the last seven winners have started in gate seven or higher and 13 of the last 17 Belmont winners had previously run in at least one of the two legs of the Triple Crown.

elevenblack301 · May 25, 2012

DCOI,

Some very interesting observations......................... first off......................
................about IHA and his target to shoot for..................... yes you are right that he likes to gun down somebody who is ahead of him............. what is going to happen if he is all by himself with another 1/4 mile to go.... don't think that Mario will ask him to go that early though. I almost see something like, Paynter and Unstoppable U taking off early ( they will be the rabbits with no Bode ), with Rags and Alpha behind them and then IHA around 5th............. Paynter and Unstoppable U should begin dying around 1 mile or so and then the fun should begin with the mid pack 3 mentioned above and then I also think Dullahan and Rousing Sermon ( could be a nice longshot play ) will be running now also........whatever happens next is for us to figure out in this thread.....

thanks also for the stats about the post positions and other tidbits............................... we have two weeks to figure this leg out.....

DrunkenHorseplayer · May 25, 2012

Paynter has a decent chance, Dullahan has a bit of one; the others have little to none, including Union Rags. Half this field looks like they don't even belong on the track.

gremlinlad · May 25, 2012

2012 Belmont Stakes possible starters

Horse

Trainer

Jockey

Watchmaker
Odds

Last Race

Alpha

K. McLaughlin

R. Dominguez

15-1

Kentucky Derby, 12th

Atigun

K. McPeek

J. Leparoux

30-1

Churchill allowance, 1st

Dullahan

D. Romans

J. Castellano

6-1

Kentucky Derby, 3rd

Five Sixteen

D. Schettino

R. Napravnik

50-1

Aqueduct allowance, 4th

Guyana Star Dweej

D. Shivmangal

undecided

50-1

Belmont OC/allowance, 2nd

I'll Have Another

D. O'Neill

M. Gutierrez

3-5

Preakness, 1st

Optimizer

D. Lukas

C. Nakatani

30-1

Preakness, 6th

Paynter

B. Baffert

M. Smith

10-1

Pimlico allowance, 1st

Ravelo's Boy

M. Azpurua

A. Solis

50-1

Tampa Bay Derby, 5th

Street Life

C. Brown

J. Lezcano

15-1

Peter Pan, 3rd

Union Rags

M. Matz

J. Velazquez

8-1

Kentucky Derby, 7th

Unstoppable U

K. McPeek

J. Alvarado

30-1

Belmont allowance, 1st

gremlinlad · May 25, 2012

Two days ago the odds on IHA was 4-5.

Wonder if the drop has any connection to the fact that Stevie Cauthens believes IHA can pull this off.

Funny..... that Cauthens likes IHA ..since he was the jockey on the horse that won the last TC. and beat IHA's Great, Great, Grand Daddy (ALYDAR) in all three legs in order to win the TC with AFFIRMED

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/69956/cauthen-compares-affirmed-ill-have-another

wabashwonders · May 25, 2012

IHA will not wear his nasal strip. Will it make a difference or not?

I like Paynter to run well here. And Street Life will be useful underneath in exotics. Deep closer will pass many tired horses late...

elevenblack301 · May 26, 2012

wabashwonders said:
IHA will not wear his nasal strip. Will it make a difference or not?

I like Paynter to run well here. And Street Life will be useful underneath in exotics. Deep closer will pass many tired horses late...

This nasal strip is very interesting, especially since he has worn it every other time out ? If it affects his breathing even in the smallest amount, yes it will affect his performance.....

elevenblack301 · May 26, 2012

:think2: Ok some more numbers to look at and digest, ( and to spit out , get heartburn, or whatever )....

............................................Best Beyers To Date

I’ll Have Another.............................109
Paynter..........................................106
Alpha..............................................98
Dullahan..........................................98
Union Rags.......................................95
Street Life........................................93
Optimizer.........................................91
Atigun..............................................89
Guyana Star Dweej............................84
Unstoppable U...................................82
Five Sixteen......................................78

　

.....................................Best Average of Beyers To Date

I’ll Have Another..................................101.6
Paynter................................................98.3
Dullahan..............................................95.0
Union Rags...........................................92.6
Street Life............................................88.3
Alpha...................................................87.6
Atigun..................................................84.6
Unstoppable U.......................................81.0
Optimizer..............................................80.6
Guyana Star Dweej................................79.0
Five Sixteen..........................................74.3

Wow, I am still thinking about that nasal thing, maybe it is a non issue, but the more air that horse gets in his lungs the better............. going to have to do some searching on this one....... just like blinkers on/off , any equipment change could be bothersome...

Be well everyone, it is now 2 weeks to the big party in Elmont, NY....

DrunkenHorseplayer · May 27, 2012

gremlin lad said:
Two days ago the odds on IHA was 4-5.

Wonder if the drop has any connection to the fact that Stevie Cauthens believes IHA can pull this off.

Funny..... that Cauthens likes IHA ..since he was the jockey on the horse that won the last TC. and beat IHA's Great, Great, Grand Daddy (ALYDAR) in all three legs in order to win the TC with AFFIRMED

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/69956/cauthen-compares-affirmed-ill-have-another

The odds listed are just one person's opinion; I'm already down on IHA at 3-2 offshore. I do think he'll be roughly 4-5 on-track at post time so if you do like him, get down now.

Ketch · May 29, 2012

anyone have link to PPs? Thx!

elevenblack301 · May 29, 2012

Ketch said:
anyone have link to PPs? Thx!

Ketch,

try here for some simple drf pp's.............

http://www.nyra.com/Belmont/BelmontContenders052512.pdf

Ketch · May 30, 2012

Thx Eleven!!

elevenblack301 said:
Ketch,

try here for some simple drf pp's.............

http://www.nyra.com/Belmont/BelmontContenders052512.pdf

Jack1999 · May 30, 2012

Will be playing against I'll Have Anonther at what will be low odds. War Emblem, Funny Cide, Smarty Jones, and Big Brown all came up short in the Belmont. Will probably play a longshot that has the chance to get the 1 1/2.

elevenblack301 · May 30, 2012

:think2: I would normally list the pedigrees of the contenders, but here is a wonderfully informative link about all of that stuff...........

Enjoy...................

http://www.chef-de-race.com/dosage/classics/2012/2012_belmont_contenders.htm

Some great reading..................................

Hamilbet · May 30, 2012

Don't Count On It said:
Something to think about, Five of the last seven winners have started in gate seven or higher and 13 of the last 17 Belmont winners had previously run in at least one of the two legs of the Triple Crown.

IHA
Union Rags
Alpha
Dullahan
Optimizer

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