2012 MLB O/U Record: 125-123-12, -$635
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104
Just a painful, painful best bet loss last night that I don’t want to really discuss anymore, but for those who missed the specifics: Jeremy Hefner and Eric Stults cruised through the first two innings last night, before a 70-90 minute rain delay took over. Naturally, when a guy is making his first ever Major League start, just as Hefner was last night, and you encounter a significant rain delay (Has that even ever happened before to someone making their first start?), of course you’re going to be out of your rhythm mentally AND physically, and it’s inevitable you won’t be the same. As expected, Hefner got hit hard as soon as play resumed in the top of the third, and it was basically all she wrote from there. Obviously, I would never even bet on a game with such a weird and unique variable, but it’s one that is unpredictable (Yes, I looked at the weather report and didn’t indicate any sort of potential delay), and unfortunately, it ends up as a loss on my record either way. The only positive was that my boy Stults, who once again makes me look smarter than the 30 GMs that passed over him for the past three years, chimed in with another excellent start. But you just move on to the next day…
Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Dodgers (Best Bet) - $72 for $60
Lucas Harrell vs Clayton Kershaw
UNDER 6
Are you serious, Vegas? According to my vast knowledge of baseball over/unders,this just might be the FIRST EVER instance where a game featuring a waiver claim pitcher like Lucas Harrell has an over/under line of 6 attached to it. I mean, today’s landscape of baseball over/unders is much different from recent years’ past when I first started doing this, as in previous years, you’d be hard-pressed to find games with a line this low, especially before The Year ofThe Pitcher (I believe there’s been two such years of this, actually), but nowadays, Vegas throws them around like they’re water. For this specific one, though, I’m still going to bite on the under, which actually may get a significant contribution from the aforementioned Astros’ right-hander.
Harrell, while he is a mere waiver claim who happens to be in the Houston starting rotation, actually is having a nice start to his 2012 season, which really shouldn’t be much of a surprise. Even casual baseball fans might remember his name popping up in trade talks as a somewhat high prospect in the White Sox organization seven and eight years ago. His numbers this year? 3-3, 4.09 ERA, 1.42 WHIP. That’s acceptable, although I only give him a pass on his relatively high WHIP because his defense has hurt him a bit. In fact, he’s given up at least one unearned run in each of his past five starts. Why is that important?That’s an unusual streak that the Law of Averages dictates ends tonight, so we really shouldn’t have to worry about spotty Astros defense tonight (Unless an infielder throws a ball in the dirt to El Caballo at first base. Favorite player in baseball, though, so he can do whatever he wants and I’ll still love him).
The real reason to divulge on the under obviously has much more to do with the opposing hurler, that being National League Cy Young winner Clayton Kershaw. We all know of his greatness at this point, and it’s continued this year (4-1,1.90 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, 51:12 K:BB ratio). Yeah, you’re really not going to find better numbers than that. Most importantly, however, is the fact that Kershaw owns the Astros (Knock on wood). He already shut them out over seven innings in Houston earlier this year on that magical April 21 evening (An under I had on my historic perfect 8-0 Saturday, remember), and played with them in the palm of his hand in two starts last year: 14 IP, 10 hits, 2 runs, 3 walks, 16 Ks. He’s thrown 16 shutout innings over his past two starts, so obviously he’s currently at the top of his game, and when Clayton Kershaw is at the top of his game, ist here a group of humans capable of scoring more than one run off him? I’m banking on a 4-1 affair.
Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox -$45 for $47
Alex Cobb vs Jon Lester
OVER 9
Whenever I see Alex Cobb’s name, I automatically think we’re still in 2011, as he was just one of those guys that popped up on the scene last year and did some fine work (The same thing happens when I think of BRAD HAND. Where is he this year??). The fact is, though, that Alex Cobb really isn’t that good. Yes, he had a nice first season in the bigs last year in amassing a 3-2 record with a 3.42 ERA and 1.33 WHIP, but from watching him, he just doesn’t give me the vibe of someone who is a legitimate upper-rotation pitcher. I can see Cobb sticking inthe Major Leagues as a lower-end pitcher, but coming with that title is the potential to get hit hard in games such as this one. Even more interesting is that this slated to be one of the MLB Network Friday night games, and also considering Boston is Cobb’s hometown, I just get the vibe that he’s not going to fare too well in this specific contest. He started off his 2012 tremendously with a decisive outing over the Braves six days ago, but with a WHIP teetering on the high waters and an inability to strike guys out consistently, that could spell trouble against a live Red Sox lineup that’s hitting the baseball well right now.
The tough part of this over will be getting an off start out of Jon Lester, who is coming off one of such performances in his last start in Philadelphia when he allowed four runs in six innings. I do not anticipate a rough outing from Lester, who a lot of people consider overrated, although I wouldn’t say that about him at all. He’s a legitimate higher-end guy with a successful track record against his division opponents, but as long as he gives up at least a couple, I’ll be fine with that. This is the type of Fenway Friday night game I expect to finish up 7-2/7-3, with most of the damage coming from the Red Sox bats. Over it is.
Other 5/25 MLB Over/Unders I’m Taking:
Ervin Santana vs Blake Beavan UNDER 7.5 - $33 for $25
Brandon Morrow vs Derek Holland OVER 9 - $23 for $23
**May Add More Over/Unders Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**
Other Over/Under Observations (Not necessarily games I’m taking)
-In Ross Detwiler vs Tim Hudson, I fully expect a 6-2 kind of game. However, it’s too close to the line so I have to stay away.
-Ryan Dempster vs AJ Burnett gives me the full vibe of a 5-3/5-2 type of game and nothing less. However, it’s the Pirates offense, which has proven to be dismal on many nights this year.
-I’ll be paying attention to Jose Quintana tonight as he makes his first ever start for the White Sox. I watched him in his one Major League appearance - a long-relief job in game one of a doubleheader versus the Indians a few weeks back - and he looked mostly effective. This could be a guy that sticks and steps up for them while John Danks is on the DL.
-Leaning towards the over in Ivan Nova vs Tyson Ross, but not sure if I’m going to take it yet.
-Same thing for Drew Smyly vs Anthony Swarzak over. Smyly has lost some of his early-season momentum and has appeared hittable lately; Swarzak is a guy I loved last year for being underrated, but he hasn’t shown much of that in 2012.
-Which Christian Friedrich do we see tonight? The one who was belted in his last start? That indicates an over to me but the Rockies bats can easily win an over by themselves on any night, even against early Cy Young candidate Johnny Cueto.
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104
Just a painful, painful best bet loss last night that I don’t want to really discuss anymore, but for those who missed the specifics: Jeremy Hefner and Eric Stults cruised through the first two innings last night, before a 70-90 minute rain delay took over. Naturally, when a guy is making his first ever Major League start, just as Hefner was last night, and you encounter a significant rain delay (Has that even ever happened before to someone making their first start?), of course you’re going to be out of your rhythm mentally AND physically, and it’s inevitable you won’t be the same. As expected, Hefner got hit hard as soon as play resumed in the top of the third, and it was basically all she wrote from there. Obviously, I would never even bet on a game with such a weird and unique variable, but it’s one that is unpredictable (Yes, I looked at the weather report and didn’t indicate any sort of potential delay), and unfortunately, it ends up as a loss on my record either way. The only positive was that my boy Stults, who once again makes me look smarter than the 30 GMs that passed over him for the past three years, chimed in with another excellent start. But you just move on to the next day…
Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Dodgers (Best Bet) - $72 for $60
Lucas Harrell vs Clayton Kershaw
UNDER 6
Are you serious, Vegas? According to my vast knowledge of baseball over/unders,this just might be the FIRST EVER instance where a game featuring a waiver claim pitcher like Lucas Harrell has an over/under line of 6 attached to it. I mean, today’s landscape of baseball over/unders is much different from recent years’ past when I first started doing this, as in previous years, you’d be hard-pressed to find games with a line this low, especially before The Year ofThe Pitcher (I believe there’s been two such years of this, actually), but nowadays, Vegas throws them around like they’re water. For this specific one, though, I’m still going to bite on the under, which actually may get a significant contribution from the aforementioned Astros’ right-hander.
Harrell, while he is a mere waiver claim who happens to be in the Houston starting rotation, actually is having a nice start to his 2012 season, which really shouldn’t be much of a surprise. Even casual baseball fans might remember his name popping up in trade talks as a somewhat high prospect in the White Sox organization seven and eight years ago. His numbers this year? 3-3, 4.09 ERA, 1.42 WHIP. That’s acceptable, although I only give him a pass on his relatively high WHIP because his defense has hurt him a bit. In fact, he’s given up at least one unearned run in each of his past five starts. Why is that important?That’s an unusual streak that the Law of Averages dictates ends tonight, so we really shouldn’t have to worry about spotty Astros defense tonight (Unless an infielder throws a ball in the dirt to El Caballo at first base. Favorite player in baseball, though, so he can do whatever he wants and I’ll still love him).
The real reason to divulge on the under obviously has much more to do with the opposing hurler, that being National League Cy Young winner Clayton Kershaw. We all know of his greatness at this point, and it’s continued this year (4-1,1.90 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, 51:12 K:BB ratio). Yeah, you’re really not going to find better numbers than that. Most importantly, however, is the fact that Kershaw owns the Astros (Knock on wood). He already shut them out over seven innings in Houston earlier this year on that magical April 21 evening (An under I had on my historic perfect 8-0 Saturday, remember), and played with them in the palm of his hand in two starts last year: 14 IP, 10 hits, 2 runs, 3 walks, 16 Ks. He’s thrown 16 shutout innings over his past two starts, so obviously he’s currently at the top of his game, and when Clayton Kershaw is at the top of his game, ist here a group of humans capable of scoring more than one run off him? I’m banking on a 4-1 affair.
Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox -$45 for $47
Alex Cobb vs Jon Lester
OVER 9
Whenever I see Alex Cobb’s name, I automatically think we’re still in 2011, as he was just one of those guys that popped up on the scene last year and did some fine work (The same thing happens when I think of BRAD HAND. Where is he this year??). The fact is, though, that Alex Cobb really isn’t that good. Yes, he had a nice first season in the bigs last year in amassing a 3-2 record with a 3.42 ERA and 1.33 WHIP, but from watching him, he just doesn’t give me the vibe of someone who is a legitimate upper-rotation pitcher. I can see Cobb sticking inthe Major Leagues as a lower-end pitcher, but coming with that title is the potential to get hit hard in games such as this one. Even more interesting is that this slated to be one of the MLB Network Friday night games, and also considering Boston is Cobb’s hometown, I just get the vibe that he’s not going to fare too well in this specific contest. He started off his 2012 tremendously with a decisive outing over the Braves six days ago, but with a WHIP teetering on the high waters and an inability to strike guys out consistently, that could spell trouble against a live Red Sox lineup that’s hitting the baseball well right now.
The tough part of this over will be getting an off start out of Jon Lester, who is coming off one of such performances in his last start in Philadelphia when he allowed four runs in six innings. I do not anticipate a rough outing from Lester, who a lot of people consider overrated, although I wouldn’t say that about him at all. He’s a legitimate higher-end guy with a successful track record against his division opponents, but as long as he gives up at least a couple, I’ll be fine with that. This is the type of Fenway Friday night game I expect to finish up 7-2/7-3, with most of the damage coming from the Red Sox bats. Over it is.
Other 5/25 MLB Over/Unders I’m Taking:
Ervin Santana vs Blake Beavan UNDER 7.5 - $33 for $25
Brandon Morrow vs Derek Holland OVER 9 - $23 for $23
**May Add More Over/Unders Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**
Other Over/Under Observations (Not necessarily games I’m taking)
-In Ross Detwiler vs Tim Hudson, I fully expect a 6-2 kind of game. However, it’s too close to the line so I have to stay away.
-Ryan Dempster vs AJ Burnett gives me the full vibe of a 5-3/5-2 type of game and nothing less. However, it’s the Pirates offense, which has proven to be dismal on many nights this year.
-I’ll be paying attention to Jose Quintana tonight as he makes his first ever start for the White Sox. I watched him in his one Major League appearance - a long-relief job in game one of a doubleheader versus the Indians a few weeks back - and he looked mostly effective. This could be a guy that sticks and steps up for them while John Danks is on the DL.
-Leaning towards the over in Ivan Nova vs Tyson Ross, but not sure if I’m going to take it yet.
-Same thing for Drew Smyly vs Anthony Swarzak over. Smyly has lost some of his early-season momentum and has appeared hittable lately; Swarzak is a guy I loved last year for being underrated, but he hasn’t shown much of that in 2012.
-Which Christian Friedrich do we see tonight? The one who was belted in his last start? That indicates an over to me but the Rockies bats can easily win an over by themselves on any night, even against early Cy Young candidate Johnny Cueto.
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