2012 MLB O/U Record: 128-124-12, -$538
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104
Solid 3-1 day yesterday (Lucas Harrell, I do declare!), winning both best bets, but again, yet another bad break cost me as I would have been a perfect 4-0, if not for yet another bullpen collapse to cost me an under (How many bullpen collapses have there been this year already?? It’s never been like this). And no, you can’t predict that Brandon League, one of the better closers in baseball, would blow a save, and ultimately the under. Yes, this does happen a decent amount of times but the reason I continue to stress these breaks seemingly every day… is because they happen so frequently that it’s ridiculous -yet on my wins, you’ll notice that I EARN just about all of them, as there is rarely a break that helps me out. Just saying. Beautiful Saturday today, at least here in New York, and what makes it more beautiful is what has been my Saturday domination this year. In fact, despite being 44-47-4 on Saturday baseball over/unders last year (My only losing day of the week in ’11, interestingly), I’m somehow 25-7-2 (78.1 %!) on Saturdays this year, which is something I can only hope to keep up. There’s certainly potential on today’s slate…
**Dollar Amounts To Be Posted Later Leading Up To Gametime**
San Diego Padres @ New York Mets (Co-Best Bet)
Clayton Richard vs Johan Santana
UNDER 7.5
Wow, if you were to say to me before the season that an eventual pitching matchup of Anthony Bass vs Dillon Gee (Last night’s game) would get a lower line than this dandy of a duel, I’d say you were crazy. But, somehow, it is the case, as this specific game is listed a half-run higher than yesterday’s contest, and I don’t really see why. I mean, obviously, the Johan Santana of 2012 has proved to be considerably different from the completely dominant Johan Santana we grew accustomed to in years’ past, but that doesn’t mean the Mets’ ace can still pitch with the best of them. In fact, while he only has one win, his stats still look terrific: 3.24 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, and 53 Ks in 50 innings. That’s still shades of his old self, and you know he’ll pick up his deserved amount of wins in due time, perhaps beginning today against one of the weaker lineups in baseball. Based on how his last start went on Monday, when Santana had the lead and ultimately blew it (And the under) late thanks to a fluke two-run homer by non-power hitter Michael McKenry of the Pirates, Santana will perhaps be extra motivated to get that ugly start out of his mind, and he’s got a great opportunity to do just that here this afternoon.
Then there is the mercurial Clayton Richard, who’s had some real up-and-down starts this year. Overall, he’s 2-5 with a 4.63 ERA and 1.29 WHIP in 2012, which does not succeed in line with his above-average numbers from the past two years, when he posted a combined 3.80 ERA. Richard has contributed two excellent outings in his last couple of starts, going seven strong against the Cardinals and Dodgers, surrendering only two runs in each outing. I think that is more of the Clayton Richard we will see today, as he really isn’t as unspectacular as his numbers suggest. This is a crafty left-hander who doesn’t rely as much on the strikeout, but his low walk rate can bode well against a scrappy Mets team that likes to grind out at-bats. As long as he can continue to limit the amount of baserunners, which he is good at according to his WHIP, then he’ll be just fine for us. I expect the bulk of this under to be provided by Santana, so a 6-inning/3-run effort out of Richard may be all we need.
Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Dodgers (Co-Best Bet)
Bud Norris vs Chad Billingsley
UNDER 7
Ah, another Bud Norris start, another best bet for The Cat. It should be no secret now that I know Mr. Norris better than anyone in the country outside of Houston, and considering he’s my favorite pitcher in all of baseball, I wouldn’t expect it any other way. In fact, I’ve been correct on him in ALL five of the games I bet involving him (3-2 on his over/unders, the two “losses” being unders in which he gave up a total of one run and were caused by the opposing pitcher), and my 11-6-1 record with him last year assures that it is indeed no coincidence. For newer readers of mine unfamiliar with my obsession of Bud Norris, it basically all began in his very first start back in 2009 against the Cardinals, in which I began dubbing him a future superstar (Which may have also involved some bias, as he helped propel that 2009 Astros team to over 73 wins in the biggest bet of my life). The evolution of Norris has been one of my favorite player developments to witness, as this guy has legitimately shown real ace-caliber potential in his few years in the big leagues. He may easily put that on display here again tonight, as not only does he have an absurd 0.35 ERA (One run in 26 innings!) and 0.92 WHIP in the month of May, he has also a very good track record against the Dodgers. In three starts against them last year (Including one of my favorite pitcher’s duels of 2011 against Clayton Kershaw last May), he posted a 0.90 ERA and 0.85 WHIP, while striking out 18 in 20 innings (He received three no-decisions, interestingly). Then again, going into last night’s game, Clayton Kershaw was nearly flawless against the Astros before losing to them, so hopefully the opposite effect does not happen here as well. Norris is too hot right now for any kind of bad luck to strike him and will be motivated to finish off May the same dominant way he’s marched through it; if he does, there is CERTAINLY a Pitcher of the Month award in his near future.
So, while I know the Astros’ right-hander incredibly, incredibly well, I cannot say the same for the Dodger hurler going tonight, that being Chad Billingsley. I do know, though, that Billingsley has always had top-of-the-rotation stuff, yet there are games where he clearly doesn’t show it. His last two starts would be good examples of that, in which he allowed nine runs over ten combined innings (Partly because he let his emotions get the better of him, like on a double-play ball that wasn't converted by his infield), shooting his ERA from 3.32 up to 3.91 in the process. I think that’s about where he’ll end up - somewhere in the high 3’s - as for this Dodger team to succeed, which they are clearly doing at the moment, Billingsley has to be one of the anchors in the rotation behind Kershaw, which he is. I actually watched Billingsley in his last two starts (1-1 in those over/unders, by the way), andone thing I took away from both that I never knew about him is how emotional hecan be. He’s shown it vibrantly in the past, not wanting Don Mattingly to take him out of games, and I like that in a pitcher, even if most people don’t likea pitcher kind of showing up their manager, but it’s a strong sign that he’s passionate about his role and cares more than most. As a result, when a pitcher cares so significantly about his overall performance, odds are you’re going toget the best possible effort out of them in their next outing in trying to bounce back, just as we should from Billingsley in trying to avenge his last two off outings. The thing that might work against us is that the Astros touched up Billingsley earlier this year for nine runs (Five earned) in lesst han four innings, but when an unusual outburst happens against a good pitcher like that, it’s common that said pitcher gets the better of them in the start proceeding it.
Perhaps the most interesting item concerning this game just might be the line itself -7. Think about that; Vegas is letting you protect yourself in the very likely event of a 5-2 outcome, which also could be deemed as one of the worst-case scenarios for this specific pitching matchup. I’m fascinated by that, especially considering last night when this same series produced an over/underof 6 with LUCAS HARRELL pitching. Granted, Harrell ended up being the main guy who won my best bet under in that game and chimed in with actually the best start of his career, but I’m just surprised this Norris vs Billingsley matchup isn’t 6.5, which is all I was expecting. I’d bet the line goes down at some point before gametime so make sure you get the under in at 7. Also airing nationally on MLB Network (Unfamiliar territory for Norris), I hope that is a variable that does not come into play against us.
Other 5/26 MLB Over/Unders I’m Taking:
Paul Maholm vs Kevin Correia OVER 7.5 (Maholm one of my top favorite pitchers; undefeated with him this year)
CC Sabathia vs Bartolo Colon UNDER 7.5
**May Add More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104
Solid 3-1 day yesterday (Lucas Harrell, I do declare!), winning both best bets, but again, yet another bad break cost me as I would have been a perfect 4-0, if not for yet another bullpen collapse to cost me an under (How many bullpen collapses have there been this year already?? It’s never been like this). And no, you can’t predict that Brandon League, one of the better closers in baseball, would blow a save, and ultimately the under. Yes, this does happen a decent amount of times but the reason I continue to stress these breaks seemingly every day… is because they happen so frequently that it’s ridiculous -yet on my wins, you’ll notice that I EARN just about all of them, as there is rarely a break that helps me out. Just saying. Beautiful Saturday today, at least here in New York, and what makes it more beautiful is what has been my Saturday domination this year. In fact, despite being 44-47-4 on Saturday baseball over/unders last year (My only losing day of the week in ’11, interestingly), I’m somehow 25-7-2 (78.1 %!) on Saturdays this year, which is something I can only hope to keep up. There’s certainly potential on today’s slate…
**Dollar Amounts To Be Posted Later Leading Up To Gametime**
San Diego Padres @ New York Mets (Co-Best Bet)
Clayton Richard vs Johan Santana
UNDER 7.5
Wow, if you were to say to me before the season that an eventual pitching matchup of Anthony Bass vs Dillon Gee (Last night’s game) would get a lower line than this dandy of a duel, I’d say you were crazy. But, somehow, it is the case, as this specific game is listed a half-run higher than yesterday’s contest, and I don’t really see why. I mean, obviously, the Johan Santana of 2012 has proved to be considerably different from the completely dominant Johan Santana we grew accustomed to in years’ past, but that doesn’t mean the Mets’ ace can still pitch with the best of them. In fact, while he only has one win, his stats still look terrific: 3.24 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, and 53 Ks in 50 innings. That’s still shades of his old self, and you know he’ll pick up his deserved amount of wins in due time, perhaps beginning today against one of the weaker lineups in baseball. Based on how his last start went on Monday, when Santana had the lead and ultimately blew it (And the under) late thanks to a fluke two-run homer by non-power hitter Michael McKenry of the Pirates, Santana will perhaps be extra motivated to get that ugly start out of his mind, and he’s got a great opportunity to do just that here this afternoon.
Then there is the mercurial Clayton Richard, who’s had some real up-and-down starts this year. Overall, he’s 2-5 with a 4.63 ERA and 1.29 WHIP in 2012, which does not succeed in line with his above-average numbers from the past two years, when he posted a combined 3.80 ERA. Richard has contributed two excellent outings in his last couple of starts, going seven strong against the Cardinals and Dodgers, surrendering only two runs in each outing. I think that is more of the Clayton Richard we will see today, as he really isn’t as unspectacular as his numbers suggest. This is a crafty left-hander who doesn’t rely as much on the strikeout, but his low walk rate can bode well against a scrappy Mets team that likes to grind out at-bats. As long as he can continue to limit the amount of baserunners, which he is good at according to his WHIP, then he’ll be just fine for us. I expect the bulk of this under to be provided by Santana, so a 6-inning/3-run effort out of Richard may be all we need.
Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Dodgers (Co-Best Bet)
Bud Norris vs Chad Billingsley
UNDER 7
Ah, another Bud Norris start, another best bet for The Cat. It should be no secret now that I know Mr. Norris better than anyone in the country outside of Houston, and considering he’s my favorite pitcher in all of baseball, I wouldn’t expect it any other way. In fact, I’ve been correct on him in ALL five of the games I bet involving him (3-2 on his over/unders, the two “losses” being unders in which he gave up a total of one run and were caused by the opposing pitcher), and my 11-6-1 record with him last year assures that it is indeed no coincidence. For newer readers of mine unfamiliar with my obsession of Bud Norris, it basically all began in his very first start back in 2009 against the Cardinals, in which I began dubbing him a future superstar (Which may have also involved some bias, as he helped propel that 2009 Astros team to over 73 wins in the biggest bet of my life). The evolution of Norris has been one of my favorite player developments to witness, as this guy has legitimately shown real ace-caliber potential in his few years in the big leagues. He may easily put that on display here again tonight, as not only does he have an absurd 0.35 ERA (One run in 26 innings!) and 0.92 WHIP in the month of May, he has also a very good track record against the Dodgers. In three starts against them last year (Including one of my favorite pitcher’s duels of 2011 against Clayton Kershaw last May), he posted a 0.90 ERA and 0.85 WHIP, while striking out 18 in 20 innings (He received three no-decisions, interestingly). Then again, going into last night’s game, Clayton Kershaw was nearly flawless against the Astros before losing to them, so hopefully the opposite effect does not happen here as well. Norris is too hot right now for any kind of bad luck to strike him and will be motivated to finish off May the same dominant way he’s marched through it; if he does, there is CERTAINLY a Pitcher of the Month award in his near future.
So, while I know the Astros’ right-hander incredibly, incredibly well, I cannot say the same for the Dodger hurler going tonight, that being Chad Billingsley. I do know, though, that Billingsley has always had top-of-the-rotation stuff, yet there are games where he clearly doesn’t show it. His last two starts would be good examples of that, in which he allowed nine runs over ten combined innings (Partly because he let his emotions get the better of him, like on a double-play ball that wasn't converted by his infield), shooting his ERA from 3.32 up to 3.91 in the process. I think that’s about where he’ll end up - somewhere in the high 3’s - as for this Dodger team to succeed, which they are clearly doing at the moment, Billingsley has to be one of the anchors in the rotation behind Kershaw, which he is. I actually watched Billingsley in his last two starts (1-1 in those over/unders, by the way), andone thing I took away from both that I never knew about him is how emotional hecan be. He’s shown it vibrantly in the past, not wanting Don Mattingly to take him out of games, and I like that in a pitcher, even if most people don’t likea pitcher kind of showing up their manager, but it’s a strong sign that he’s passionate about his role and cares more than most. As a result, when a pitcher cares so significantly about his overall performance, odds are you’re going toget the best possible effort out of them in their next outing in trying to bounce back, just as we should from Billingsley in trying to avenge his last two off outings. The thing that might work against us is that the Astros touched up Billingsley earlier this year for nine runs (Five earned) in lesst han four innings, but when an unusual outburst happens against a good pitcher like that, it’s common that said pitcher gets the better of them in the start proceeding it.
Perhaps the most interesting item concerning this game just might be the line itself -7. Think about that; Vegas is letting you protect yourself in the very likely event of a 5-2 outcome, which also could be deemed as one of the worst-case scenarios for this specific pitching matchup. I’m fascinated by that, especially considering last night when this same series produced an over/underof 6 with LUCAS HARRELL pitching. Granted, Harrell ended up being the main guy who won my best bet under in that game and chimed in with actually the best start of his career, but I’m just surprised this Norris vs Billingsley matchup isn’t 6.5, which is all I was expecting. I’d bet the line goes down at some point before gametime so make sure you get the under in at 7. Also airing nationally on MLB Network (Unfamiliar territory for Norris), I hope that is a variable that does not come into play against us.
Other 5/26 MLB Over/Unders I’m Taking:
Paul Maholm vs Kevin Correia OVER 7.5 (Maholm one of my top favorite pitchers; undefeated with him this year)
CC Sabathia vs Bartolo Colon UNDER 7.5
**May Add More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**
