Yesterday 1 2 0 -1.94 Units
Last 30 Days 33 32 0 +16.96 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2012) 55 64 0 -0.26 Units
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise
ATLANTA +103 over St. Louis
Pulling the trigger with a team on a losing streak is sometimes tough, especially when said team is a perennial bottom feeder. However, that is not the case with the Braves. They’ve been a model franchise for years. They’re always in the thick of things and they can win almost any night. Like tonight. Jake Westbrook favored in Atlanta is ludicrous. Westbrook’s 1.67 ERA on the road is even more ludicrous as this is a pitcher with average skills that say he cannot maintain that low ERA. His BAA is .267, he has a career 4.27 ERA and the Cardinals have lost four of his last five starts. Against current Braves hitters, Westbrook has a BAA of .325, an OBP of .373 and a slugging percentage of .403. Randall Delgado has had his fair share of bad luck in the early going, with a 10% home run per fly ball rate, 69% strand rate, and an ERA much higher than his xERA. Delgado has impressed with his 50% groundball rate and a solid strikeout rate. There are sure to be some growing pains for Delgado but the future looks bright for the 22-year-old. He’s also been much more effective at home and we have no problem backing him here. Play: Atlanta +103 (Risking 2 units).
Baltimore +128 over TORONTO
The Baltimore Orioles are the surprise of baseball. They lead the AL East and have taken five of seven against the Blue Jays already this season. Jake Arrieta had a 4.66 ERA in 2010 and a 5.05 ERA in 2011 so his 4.87 ERA this season might signify that he is the same pitcher. He’s not. His base skills have improved dramatically with a groundball rate of 48% and a solid BB/K ratio of 16/53 in 61 frames. An unlucky 65% strand rate has Arietta’s ERA at an elevated level but his 2.77 ERA on the road suggests he’s worth keeping an eye on. Arietta deserves better than his current 2-5 mark. Meanwhile, Ricky Romero is a pitcher on a serious skills decline. In his last four starts, Romero has faced Oakland, Minnesota, the Mets and Tampa Bay, not exactly the cream of the crop, resulting in an xERA of 4.52. Romero keeps walking batters. He’s already issued 37 in 65 innings and only half of his 10 starts can be considered quality. Two misleading W/L records oppose one another here. Ricky Romero’s 5-1 record against Jake Arietta’s 2-5 record is misleading but if justice prevails, we should cash this ticket. Play: Baltimore +128 (Risking 2 units).
Last 30 Days 33 32 0 +16.96 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2012) 55 64 0 -0.26 Units
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise
ATLANTA +103 over St. Louis
Pulling the trigger with a team on a losing streak is sometimes tough, especially when said team is a perennial bottom feeder. However, that is not the case with the Braves. They’ve been a model franchise for years. They’re always in the thick of things and they can win almost any night. Like tonight. Jake Westbrook favored in Atlanta is ludicrous. Westbrook’s 1.67 ERA on the road is even more ludicrous as this is a pitcher with average skills that say he cannot maintain that low ERA. His BAA is .267, he has a career 4.27 ERA and the Cardinals have lost four of his last five starts. Against current Braves hitters, Westbrook has a BAA of .325, an OBP of .373 and a slugging percentage of .403. Randall Delgado has had his fair share of bad luck in the early going, with a 10% home run per fly ball rate, 69% strand rate, and an ERA much higher than his xERA. Delgado has impressed with his 50% groundball rate and a solid strikeout rate. There are sure to be some growing pains for Delgado but the future looks bright for the 22-year-old. He’s also been much more effective at home and we have no problem backing him here. Play: Atlanta +103 (Risking 2 units).
Baltimore +128 over TORONTO
The Baltimore Orioles are the surprise of baseball. They lead the AL East and have taken five of seven against the Blue Jays already this season. Jake Arrieta had a 4.66 ERA in 2010 and a 5.05 ERA in 2011 so his 4.87 ERA this season might signify that he is the same pitcher. He’s not. His base skills have improved dramatically with a groundball rate of 48% and a solid BB/K ratio of 16/53 in 61 frames. An unlucky 65% strand rate has Arietta’s ERA at an elevated level but his 2.77 ERA on the road suggests he’s worth keeping an eye on. Arietta deserves better than his current 2-5 mark. Meanwhile, Ricky Romero is a pitcher on a serious skills decline. In his last four starts, Romero has faced Oakland, Minnesota, the Mets and Tampa Bay, not exactly the cream of the crop, resulting in an xERA of 4.52. Romero keeps walking batters. He’s already issued 37 in 65 innings and only half of his 10 starts can be considered quality. Two misleading W/L records oppose one another here. Ricky Romero’s 5-1 record against Jake Arietta’s 2-5 record is misleading but if justice prevails, we should cash this ticket. Play: Baltimore +128 (Risking 2 units).
