Crazy selective system - Day 1

Day 1:

Minnesota scored only 1 run in 11 innings against Oakland starters in the first two games of this series but stil won both games thanks to 7 runs scored in 5.2 innings against Oakland pen. The Twins offense is getting a break here as they face Ross who is 1-5 in last 6 starts with ERA of 7.36. Liriano is getting his 2nd chance today and I expect him to deliver with a nice game. I am going with Minnesota moneyline -119 here.

Seattle exploded yesterday scoring 10 runs and they should score enough here today to keep it close against Texas with Holland on the mound who is 2-3 in last 6 starts allowing 5 or more earned runs in 3 of those 6 starts. Seattle and Texas split last 8 games but Texas won all of their 4 games by 2 runs or less and Seattle outscored them 31-22 in last 7 head-to-head meetins. I am taking Seattle +2.5 -155 on the alternative runline.

Just for fun, I am playing these two in a parlay for a solid payout as my 3rd game today. So, my 3 plays for today, to start this crazy selective system are:

Minnesota
Seattle +2.5
Parlay: Minnesota & Seattle +2.5

3-0. Easier than expected.

Today I will play two team totals. Why not the game total ? Because I am more confident that at least one team will score 5+ runs than that game will fly over 10.
If I go 1-1, I will lose a pocket change. The plays are: Colorado team total OVER 4.5 and Houston team total OVER 4.5 (both at -108).


Bud Norris is 5-1 on the season and he pitched very well from April 30th to May 21st. The problem is, during that time he pitched 4 times at home and only once on the road and that road start was at Pittsburgh, against the nations worst team offensively in runs scored, hits and OPS. Colorado is a much more dangerous on offense, especially at home. Bud Norris road stats are not pretty (ERA 5.40) and his last start (it was at home) was one of his worst starts this season and maybe it tells us that he is going in bad direction now. As for Guthrie, he allowed 6 runs in each of his three starts at home and he also allowed 6 runs (only 2 earned though) in his last start, which was on the road. His home ERA is just under 10.

Those lines did not last long. Colorado over 4.5 now -120 and Houston over 4.5 now -125...

5-0

The Dodgers scored a total of 11 runs in last 5 games while Colorado scored 11 or more in each of their last three games. Harang not good in last three starts @ Colorado allowing 16 earned runs in 12.1 innings pitched there. I am taking the Rockies. Good luck !