Hookem's MLB Hybrid Chase (38-0 last season)

Search

New member
Joined
Oct 23, 2004
Messages
8,472
Tokens
MLB Hybrid Chase (38-0 last season)

I developed this chase last season by combining the parameters of two successful chases: 1968's chase and the Opening Game chase. There are not as many series with this chase as you may expect with other chases. So far this season, there have been 6 series and it has not incurred a loss. As seen below, it has not gone to game three of the chase so far this year. Last season there were 38 series and it won them all as well. I only remember it going to game 3 once last year. I have not done any back-testing prior to last season.

Here is how it works:

1. Chase any HOME team starting a 3 or 4 game home series (chase for the home series);
2. Home team must be favored by -145 or more in the first game of the series;
3. Home team must have won at least 2 of last 3 games;
4. There must be a total of 9 or more runs in the first game of the series.

This season's results to date:

4/13: NYY (W) gm 1
4/16: NYY (W) gm 2
4/27: Texas (W) gm 2
4/30: NYY (W) gm 1
5/25: Boston (W) gm 2
5/28: Texas (W) gm 1
---
YTD: 6-0 (+600)

I'll track it and post the plays.
Right now, I see two possible series tomorrow: Tor -130,10 and Cle -145, 8.5
Keep an eye out and see if the lines move
 

New member
Joined
Feb 26, 2010
Messages
236
Tokens
down with a chase system. but if the first game of the series has to have at least 9 runs, do you not start the system until game 2?
 

Member
Joined
Nov 3, 2009
Messages
4,640
Tokens
9 has to be the total for the first game. Meaning what it is set at for betting purposes. Right now cleveland isn't a play because it sits at 8.5
 

New member
Joined
Oct 23, 2004
Messages
8,472
Tokens
9 has to be the total for the first game. Meaning what it is set at for betting purposes. Right now cleveland isn't a play because it sits at 8.5

Correct.

However, I made a mistake. Cleveland did not win at least 2 or their last 3 games so it does not qualify. So we can forget about them.

Toronto is sitting at -123 so we need it to rise to -145 before it can become a play.

Nothing else looks like it will qualify.
 

New member
Joined
Oct 23, 2004
Messages
8,472
Tokens
Just a note:

As I stated above, you won't see many plays with this chase. Last season there were only 38 series. However, when it does come up it has been money!
 

New member
Joined
Sep 10, 2011
Messages
499
Tokens
always kept an eye out for those 9 run games. Glad you got a thread going now
 

New member
Joined
Oct 23, 2004
Messages
8,472
Tokens
Possibles on 6/4:

KC -139 & 9.5
ARI -135 & 9.5

Need both MLs to move to -145 or higher. Will monitor until game start tomorrow evening

Note: I've been using covers.com to get the lines. Seems to be accurate...let me know if someone has a better/more accurate site
 

New member
Joined
Feb 26, 2010
Messages
236
Tokens
for this chase, is it smart to wait till almost game time or if your line at your local gets where it needs to be to take it? thanks
 

New member
Joined
Jan 4, 2012
Messages
139
Tokens
The kc line is just about where we need it but ari is moving away from a play
 

New member
Joined
Oct 23, 2004
Messages
8,472
Tokens
Looks like Arizona isn't going to make the ml

I see KC -145 at a couple of shops and in the -130s at others right now
 

New member
Joined
Jan 4, 2012
Messages
139
Tokens
151 at bookmaker and 147 at ledgends. Everyone else around 140 play or no play
 

New member
Joined
Oct 23, 2004
Messages
8,472
Tokens
gotta be -145. Majority of shops are under that so I'm not going to make it an official play
 

Forum statistics

Threads
1,108,262
Messages
13,449,996
Members
99,404
Latest member
byen17188
The RX is the sports betting industry's leading information portal for bonuses, picks, and sportsbook reviews. Find the best deals offered by a sportsbook in your state and browse our free picks section.FacebookTwitterInstagramContact Usforum@therx.com