2012 MLB O/U Record: 137-135-12, -$932
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104
Alright, today is a day I feel good about, which usually foreshadows a good performance. Only three games on the slate (An absolute rarity, by the way. Don’t recall a day having such few games in 2011 aside from the first couple of days of the year), which made me nervous initially, because it’s possible you are then forcing bets, since there’s such little action on the slate that you feel obligated to find at least one game. Instead, I was relaxed and had a good natural vibe on two of the three games (Surprisingly, the one game I DID NOT have a large feel for was the one involving the guy I’ve been perfect with all year and my favorite pitcher in all of baseball since 2009 - BUD NORRIS). That said, here’s my card, which I envision being a positive evening for The Cat…
Detroit Tigers @ Boston Red Sox (BestBet) - $95 for $90
Max Scherzer vs Josh Beckett
UNDER 9
Interesting conclusion to this, so far, all overs (Law of Averages?) four-game series between the Tigers and the Red Sox, or as most would sum up, the two most underachieving teams in the American League (The Royals being closely behind them). It’s a matchup between two guys who have showed ace-caliber stuff several times in the past, yet have also showed significant vulnerability in the past in getting hit around. The true question is, can we get both of these guys in their near top form in this Thursday night MLB Network showdown?
Luckily, both guys seemingly have to be confident heading into this affair, given their current grooves, especially Max Scherzer. In case you missed it, the Tigers’right-hander struck out 15 a week and a half ago, before sitting down 9 more via the strikeout in his last start in Minnesota, and overall, has mostly bounced back from his horrific start in which he was carrying a 2-3 record with a 6.26 ERA. He’s always had the potential ever since his beginning days in Arizona,when he struck out 7 in 4.1 innings in his Major League debut in 2008. With him currently in a rhythm again, you have to believe he keeps it up in effort of improving his currently gaudy numbers that you know will be in better shape sooner than later. As for potential intimidation when it comes to pitching in Fenway Park on a big stage, keep this in mind: Scherzer, after his awful, awful woes to begin the year, has already faced his toughest intimidation mentally while starting with a 7+ ERA. Thus, having overcome his toughest adversity that he’ll probably have all season, he can meet the challenge of pitching in tonight’s tough assignment. After all, there’s no bigger task than overcoming an extended disastrous start to the season when you are questioning your own ability as a big-league pitcher both mentally and physically.
Going for the Red Sox, of course, is the controversial Josh Beckett, who also seems to have entered a groove of his own. Ever since the game he pitched in the day that “Golf Gate” came out (For lack of a better term. Oh, and the successful over that night was one of my bigger bets of the season - also, ironically, in a Thursday night MLB Network game at Fenway), Beckett has only given up three runs in 21+ innings, proving to all he’s overcome that incident to regain his old form. While he did struggle against the Tigers in his first start of the year, this is a much different scenario. The Red Sox collectively have recovered from their bad start, much like Beckett has, and therefore, he can continue while fully focused in re-establishing himself as one of the better pitchers in the American League. This one appears to be going under.
Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers - $57 for $45
Zack Greinke vs Chad Billingsley
UNDER 7
This series between the Brewers and Dodgers has been mostly low-scoring, and I expect that trend to continue here tonight in the second MLB Network game on this Thursday evening. Chad Billingsley has been a real peculiar case this year, sometimes flashing absolute dominance in starts, while also displaying significant wildness in others. Overall, he’s been good in 2012 (3.88 ERA with 52 Ks in 55 IP) and I feel this is a spot where we’ll see his good side as he tries to rescue the Dodgers from a potential four-game sweep. If you’ve watched him pitch, you can clearly tell he’s one of the more passionate ones out there, so a guy like that lives for spots like these in which the spotlight is all on him in trying to help his team in an important scenario (Avoiding an ugly home sweep when you have the best record in the league). That should spell a good mentality for Billingsley heading into this one, and he’s already racked up a good start against the Brew Crew earlier this season.
Zack Greinke, meanwhile, can also be as mixed as they come. Stuff-wise, he’s tremendous, as he’s shown for several years now, but with him, mindset can impact him as much as any other pitcher in the league. In fact, it was a mental-related disorder that had him out of baseball for a year, which is why I tend to stay away from his starts, since human psychology is the main factor in my over/under baseball betting. However, in this specific instance, I see Greinke showing his good side, especially in a lower-pressure situation like this one when the Brewers have already secured the first three games of this huge series with the NL leader. With Matt Kemp out (I’m not a fan of his or anything but damn, you have to respect this man and feel bad for his situation. I love what he’s done with his career and have the upmost respect for him. He was ON PACE for that dream 40/40 season), this only increases Greinke’s chances of churning out a quality start, going up against a depleted Dodgers offense that was resurging, but certainly might feel a let-down from Kemp re-injuring hishamstring. Greinke is coming off arguably his worst start of the year so I don’t see how he can take any pitch in this one for granted, meaning we should see him at least close to top form. If, in my opinion, the most likely worst-case scenario for this game is 5-2, this should put us in good shape to score an under.
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104
Alright, today is a day I feel good about, which usually foreshadows a good performance. Only three games on the slate (An absolute rarity, by the way. Don’t recall a day having such few games in 2011 aside from the first couple of days of the year), which made me nervous initially, because it’s possible you are then forcing bets, since there’s such little action on the slate that you feel obligated to find at least one game. Instead, I was relaxed and had a good natural vibe on two of the three games (Surprisingly, the one game I DID NOT have a large feel for was the one involving the guy I’ve been perfect with all year and my favorite pitcher in all of baseball since 2009 - BUD NORRIS). That said, here’s my card, which I envision being a positive evening for The Cat…
Detroit Tigers @ Boston Red Sox (BestBet) - $95 for $90
Max Scherzer vs Josh Beckett
UNDER 9
Interesting conclusion to this, so far, all overs (Law of Averages?) four-game series between the Tigers and the Red Sox, or as most would sum up, the two most underachieving teams in the American League (The Royals being closely behind them). It’s a matchup between two guys who have showed ace-caliber stuff several times in the past, yet have also showed significant vulnerability in the past in getting hit around. The true question is, can we get both of these guys in their near top form in this Thursday night MLB Network showdown?
Luckily, both guys seemingly have to be confident heading into this affair, given their current grooves, especially Max Scherzer. In case you missed it, the Tigers’right-hander struck out 15 a week and a half ago, before sitting down 9 more via the strikeout in his last start in Minnesota, and overall, has mostly bounced back from his horrific start in which he was carrying a 2-3 record with a 6.26 ERA. He’s always had the potential ever since his beginning days in Arizona,when he struck out 7 in 4.1 innings in his Major League debut in 2008. With him currently in a rhythm again, you have to believe he keeps it up in effort of improving his currently gaudy numbers that you know will be in better shape sooner than later. As for potential intimidation when it comes to pitching in Fenway Park on a big stage, keep this in mind: Scherzer, after his awful, awful woes to begin the year, has already faced his toughest intimidation mentally while starting with a 7+ ERA. Thus, having overcome his toughest adversity that he’ll probably have all season, he can meet the challenge of pitching in tonight’s tough assignment. After all, there’s no bigger task than overcoming an extended disastrous start to the season when you are questioning your own ability as a big-league pitcher both mentally and physically.
Going for the Red Sox, of course, is the controversial Josh Beckett, who also seems to have entered a groove of his own. Ever since the game he pitched in the day that “Golf Gate” came out (For lack of a better term. Oh, and the successful over that night was one of my bigger bets of the season - also, ironically, in a Thursday night MLB Network game at Fenway), Beckett has only given up three runs in 21+ innings, proving to all he’s overcome that incident to regain his old form. While he did struggle against the Tigers in his first start of the year, this is a much different scenario. The Red Sox collectively have recovered from their bad start, much like Beckett has, and therefore, he can continue while fully focused in re-establishing himself as one of the better pitchers in the American League. This one appears to be going under.
Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers - $57 for $45
Zack Greinke vs Chad Billingsley
UNDER 7
This series between the Brewers and Dodgers has been mostly low-scoring, and I expect that trend to continue here tonight in the second MLB Network game on this Thursday evening. Chad Billingsley has been a real peculiar case this year, sometimes flashing absolute dominance in starts, while also displaying significant wildness in others. Overall, he’s been good in 2012 (3.88 ERA with 52 Ks in 55 IP) and I feel this is a spot where we’ll see his good side as he tries to rescue the Dodgers from a potential four-game sweep. If you’ve watched him pitch, you can clearly tell he’s one of the more passionate ones out there, so a guy like that lives for spots like these in which the spotlight is all on him in trying to help his team in an important scenario (Avoiding an ugly home sweep when you have the best record in the league). That should spell a good mentality for Billingsley heading into this one, and he’s already racked up a good start against the Brew Crew earlier this season.
Zack Greinke, meanwhile, can also be as mixed as they come. Stuff-wise, he’s tremendous, as he’s shown for several years now, but with him, mindset can impact him as much as any other pitcher in the league. In fact, it was a mental-related disorder that had him out of baseball for a year, which is why I tend to stay away from his starts, since human psychology is the main factor in my over/under baseball betting. However, in this specific instance, I see Greinke showing his good side, especially in a lower-pressure situation like this one when the Brewers have already secured the first three games of this huge series with the NL leader. With Matt Kemp out (I’m not a fan of his or anything but damn, you have to respect this man and feel bad for his situation. I love what he’s done with his career and have the upmost respect for him. He was ON PACE for that dream 40/40 season), this only increases Greinke’s chances of churning out a quality start, going up against a depleted Dodgers offense that was resurging, but certainly might feel a let-down from Kemp re-injuring hishamstring. Greinke is coming off arguably his worst start of the year so I don’t see how he can take any pitch in this one for granted, meaning we should see him at least close to top form. If, in my opinion, the most likely worst-case scenario for this game is 5-2, this should put us in good shape to score an under.
