Yesterday 0 1 0 -2.00 Units
Last 30 Days 33 32 0 +15.90 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2012) 57 68 0 -3.72 Units
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise
Boston +117 over TORONTO
Despite a 4-2 record, Clay Buchholz is having an awful season. He’s allowed an eye-opening 75 hits in 56.1 innings for a BAA of .323. Remember, Buchholz went 5-0 in May and June last year with a 2.33 ERA before missing the rest of the year with back problems. He wasn’t as good as that 5-0 run suggests but he’s certainly not as bad as his current 7.19 ERA suggests. His xERA over his last two starts was 2.85. He has a solid groundball rate of 49% and he appears to be rounding back into form. He’ll now take the hill with plenty of confidence against a group of Jays hitters that have 10 measly hits against him in 85 AB’s for a BA of .118. After a brutal start to the year, the Red Sox are now a game over .500, just one game behind the Blue Jays with recent wins against Justin Verlander, David Price and Drew Smyly among others. Henderson Alvarez is 1-3 at home with a 4.36 ERA and it’s no mystery as to why. Alvarez relies heavily on his defense, as he rarely misses a bat with just 19 K’s in 65.2 innings for one of the lowest K rates in the majors. In order to keep this strong hitting guest in check, you need to strike out people in key situations and Alvarez simply cannot. He’s a top groundballer (57%) but that’s not enough to keep us off this live pooch. Play Boston +117 (Risking 2 units).
Minnesota +133 over CLEVELAND
Quite often we talk about overachieving and underachieving pitchers that have misleading stats. Let’s switch gears a bit here and look at underachieving and overachieving clubs. The Indians have somehow managed to stay in first for a good portion of this season but their free-fall has just begun. Cleveland’s 27-23 record has to be considered the AL’s biggest hoax so far when you consider a starting rotation that consists of Josh Tomlin, Justin Masterson, Jeanmar Gómez, Ubaldo Jiminez and today’s stiff, Derek Lowe. They’ve been winning games with their bats but we’re starting to see a team batting average that was as high as .279, starting to drop off. The Tribe have scored just five runs over their past two games and that was against a weak Royals staff. They’ve also lost five of six and the aforementioned starting five plus the pen has allowed 54 runs during that stretch. Lowe has walked 18 and struck out 18 over 61 innings. Such numbers indicate that there is little chance of maintaining that 3.25 ERA. The Twins are 18-32 after a horrible start that saw them open the season with seven wins in 31 games. Since then, Minnesota is 11-8. Carl Pavano is not exactly a stud but what he brings to the table is pinpoint control and the ability to provide his team a chance to win. Two teams moving in opposite directions, both with misleading W/L records allows us to take back a pretty nice tag on the Twinkies. Play: Minnesota +133 (Risking 2 units).
St. Louis +100 over N.Y. METS
To the casual observer, Adam Wainwright's 4.45 ERA this season can be chalked up to Tommy John surgery rust. You know, "The guy has missed a full year and is just taking his time getting 'it' back, like a lot of TJS pitchers do." Actually, nothing could be farther from the truth. Ignore the ERA, as his strand percentage is extremely low at 69% and is sure to rise. What we really have here is an already elite starter that has improved his numbers in every category. Wainright has walked 17 and struck out 51 in 59 innings. His already-stellar groundball/line-drive/fly-ball split has tilted towards even more grounders and is sitting at an elite 55%. Wainwright is in the best stretch of his career and his ERA is going to get much better. There is no Tommy John residue here. Johan Santana’s strikeout rate is outstanding, as he’s whiffing one batter an inning. However, his groundball/fly-ball split is at 36%/40% and with a strand rate of 80%, his 2.75 ERA is unlikely to last. The Cardinals are 6-2 on the road against southpaws and current Cards batters have a .304 batting average, a .457 slugging percentage and a gaudy .829 OPS against Santana. Regardless of outcome, this is a wager that should not be missed. Play: St. Louis +100 (Risking 2 units).
Last 30 Days 33 32 0 +15.90 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2012) 57 68 0 -3.72 Units
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise
Boston +117 over TORONTO
Despite a 4-2 record, Clay Buchholz is having an awful season. He’s allowed an eye-opening 75 hits in 56.1 innings for a BAA of .323. Remember, Buchholz went 5-0 in May and June last year with a 2.33 ERA before missing the rest of the year with back problems. He wasn’t as good as that 5-0 run suggests but he’s certainly not as bad as his current 7.19 ERA suggests. His xERA over his last two starts was 2.85. He has a solid groundball rate of 49% and he appears to be rounding back into form. He’ll now take the hill with plenty of confidence against a group of Jays hitters that have 10 measly hits against him in 85 AB’s for a BA of .118. After a brutal start to the year, the Red Sox are now a game over .500, just one game behind the Blue Jays with recent wins against Justin Verlander, David Price and Drew Smyly among others. Henderson Alvarez is 1-3 at home with a 4.36 ERA and it’s no mystery as to why. Alvarez relies heavily on his defense, as he rarely misses a bat with just 19 K’s in 65.2 innings for one of the lowest K rates in the majors. In order to keep this strong hitting guest in check, you need to strike out people in key situations and Alvarez simply cannot. He’s a top groundballer (57%) but that’s not enough to keep us off this live pooch. Play Boston +117 (Risking 2 units).
Minnesota +133 over CLEVELAND
Quite often we talk about overachieving and underachieving pitchers that have misleading stats. Let’s switch gears a bit here and look at underachieving and overachieving clubs. The Indians have somehow managed to stay in first for a good portion of this season but their free-fall has just begun. Cleveland’s 27-23 record has to be considered the AL’s biggest hoax so far when you consider a starting rotation that consists of Josh Tomlin, Justin Masterson, Jeanmar Gómez, Ubaldo Jiminez and today’s stiff, Derek Lowe. They’ve been winning games with their bats but we’re starting to see a team batting average that was as high as .279, starting to drop off. The Tribe have scored just five runs over their past two games and that was against a weak Royals staff. They’ve also lost five of six and the aforementioned starting five plus the pen has allowed 54 runs during that stretch. Lowe has walked 18 and struck out 18 over 61 innings. Such numbers indicate that there is little chance of maintaining that 3.25 ERA. The Twins are 18-32 after a horrible start that saw them open the season with seven wins in 31 games. Since then, Minnesota is 11-8. Carl Pavano is not exactly a stud but what he brings to the table is pinpoint control and the ability to provide his team a chance to win. Two teams moving in opposite directions, both with misleading W/L records allows us to take back a pretty nice tag on the Twinkies. Play: Minnesota +133 (Risking 2 units).
St. Louis +100 over N.Y. METS
To the casual observer, Adam Wainwright's 4.45 ERA this season can be chalked up to Tommy John surgery rust. You know, "The guy has missed a full year and is just taking his time getting 'it' back, like a lot of TJS pitchers do." Actually, nothing could be farther from the truth. Ignore the ERA, as his strand percentage is extremely low at 69% and is sure to rise. What we really have here is an already elite starter that has improved his numbers in every category. Wainright has walked 17 and struck out 51 in 59 innings. His already-stellar groundball/line-drive/fly-ball split has tilted towards even more grounders and is sitting at an elite 55%. Wainwright is in the best stretch of his career and his ERA is going to get much better. There is no Tommy John residue here. Johan Santana’s strikeout rate is outstanding, as he’s whiffing one batter an inning. However, his groundball/fly-ball split is at 36%/40% and with a strand rate of 80%, his 2.75 ERA is unlikely to last. The Cardinals are 6-2 on the road against southpaws and current Cards batters have a .304 batting average, a .457 slugging percentage and a gaudy .829 OPS against Santana. Regardless of outcome, this is a wager that should not be missed. Play: St. Louis +100 (Risking 2 units).
