2012 MLB O/U Record: 137-137-12, -$1,099 (Been making bigger bets this year, with countless bad breaks, obviously)
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104
Today is June 1st. I have not missed one day at all this year in doing these 1,000-2,000 word articles because, as you should be able to tell by now, I am more passionate and dedicated to MLB Over/Unders than anyone in this country - and that is not an exaggerated statement when I continually spend hours daily AND nightly on these aforementioned over/unders, just like last year. You can also tell I know as much as anybody when it comes to starting pitchers by the random over/under tidbits of information that I creepily recognize (Ex. I don’t care if you don’t believe me but when I first saw tonight’s Leake vs Happ matchup, my mind instantly remembered their game from last year in Cincinnati and the fact that it was on a Tuesday night! How many other people in the country would know that off the top of their head? Trust me, it’s a scary obsession) and how many under-the-radar pitchers I’ve discovered that no one saw coming (Ex. James McDonald, Bud Norris, Blake Beavan, Eric Stults, Nathan Adcock in his good start, the list goes on)
However, after yet another pair of awful breaks last night that led to me going “0-for-2” (Despite being 100-percent right on both games, yet they’re “losses"), I have to admit that I’m starting to lose my spirit, and that’s not good at all. To be successful in something in life, you have to maintain a passion for it, and you only do that when you’re having fun with it. I’ve always had fun with MLB Over/Unders, as you can all tell from how I cover this stuff with such enthusiasm every day over the course of the six-month season, but the bad breaks… Just. Don’t. Stop. Last night, Greinke vs Billingsley under 7 was 4-1 in the ninth inning. Two outs. Carlos Gomez, the scrawny outfielder known exclusively for his speed, somehow drilled a two-run homer to make it 6-1. Okay, even though that would never even happen in a video game, I guess I’ll settle for a push - Nope. Bottom of the ninth now, two outs, runner in scoring position for James Loney. Despite being up five, the Brewers ACTUALLY bring in a left-handed reliever, which should spell doom for over bettors with the fact that they’re actually trying in playing the correct lefty/lefty matchup (Loney hits .180 vs lefties). Doesn’t matter - Loney punches an RBI single, with two strikes of course, to kill the under. Meanwhile, in Scherzer vs Beckett under 9, you are supposed to be golden if your bold prediction of getting a quality start from BOTH pitchers at FenwayPark rings true. It happened, then the under, or at least a push, looked good when it was 4-3 in the 8th and 5-3 in the 9th. Wait for it, wait for it… two outs, NOBODY on base in the top of the ninth. Three straight hits later off Rich Hill and his 1.67 ERA (His career ERA with the RedSox was actually less than that) and the under is dead. Yes, bad breaks happen to everyone… BUT THEY SHOULDN’T BE HAPPENING ALMOST EVERY SINGLE DAY. THIS IS FAR FROM NORMAL.
As you can see, I’m nearing my breaking point. This is so frustrating because I mastered MLB Over/Unders last year in winning 57.5% of the time through almost 700 games after experimenting and crafting this very same technique in the two years prior (Although the average over/under line has changed significantly from 2009). Bullpens were not blowing unders at such a ridiculous pace, not even close. I’m attempting to keep my head up because I know these consistent wildly fluke-ish breaks have to stop at some point, but like I said, I’m nearing the breaking point, which is something I NEVER would have imagined. Anyway, only small bets today after being so rattled last night, as I can’t let it snowball my mindset so I’m being cautious on this Friday evening...
**DollarAmounts To Be Posted Later Leading Up To Gametime**
Chicago Cubs @ San Francisco Giants
Paul Maholm vs Madison Bumgarner
UNDER 7
I’m really curious about this game. First off, for those regular readers of mine, you know Paul Maholm is one of my favorite pitchers in all of baseball, and that’s been the case for a few years now. I just love his approach and calmness on the mound, where he usually gets it done despite not having overpowering stuff. Thus, he has all the tools to be one of those long-lasting crafty southpaws in this league, even if it’s not at the tippy top of a Major League rotation. I’ve been nearly perfect with Maholm this year, and while this isn’t a strong vibe I have on this game, it’s one I’ll ride with the belief that Maholm is bound to bounce back from his past few so-so starts. After all, this is a guy who, overall, has recovered nicely with his new team after a truly horrendous April. His last start actually was promising (Two runs in five innings in his big return to Pittsburgh, to follow up two bad starts prior), and this is a guy that has proved several times that he’s a streaky pitcher. His good work comes in bunches, so if his last start against the Pirates was any indication, we should get some steady contributions out of Maholm going forward in the near-future - hopefully including tonight. What should also help us is that the Giants hit only 11 home runs in ALL of May as a team (Yes, the Giants had less home runs than Josh Hamilton and Giancarlo Stanton), so we can only hope the Law of Averages doesn’t kick in and aid San Francisco with the long ball.
For most people, Madison Bumgarner is the real hook concerning this under, and there’s much reason for that. The young lefty is thriving once again in 2012, having a 5-4 record with a 3.14 ERA and a sparkling 1.11 WHIP. His 47:14 K:BB ratio also sticks out significantly. Furthermore, Bumgarner has an excellent track record versus the Cubs, holding them to three runs over 14 innings in two starts against them last year. Best of all, his .149 opposing batting average against them was his lowest against ANY team in which he made two or more starts throughout 2011. There’s no doubt Bumgarner is, and should continue to be, one of the better young left-handed starting pitchers in all of baseball - let’s hope we get that version tonight in securing a 3-2-ish result.
Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies
Mark Buehrle vs Kyle Kendrick
OVER 8.5
WhenI first saw this pitching matchup, I instantly had an over vibe, but was distraught when I saw the line was as high as 8.5. Thinking about it further, I started to appreciate that fact, as OBVIOUSLY, Vegas likes the over, too, for making the line that high. After all, given the fact that both guys have good ERA’s (One in the low 3’s, the other almost below 4), you’d think the line would be, at most, 8, as that’s what the line is almost always set at with those parameters, especially when it’s not in an extreme hitter’s park like Arlington or Coors Field (Although Citizen’s Bank Park is obviously a hitter’s park). That said, Vegas clearly has tipped their hand in making the line what it is, and combined with the vibe I had on the game, it’s a chance to capitalize on a solid over. Mark Buehrle, despite his older age, is not usually one to be a candidate for overs, as while he never really dominates an opposing batting order, he marvelously always maintains good numbers every year. In 2012, however, he has shown some kinks in his aging armor, as he’s given up four runs in two of his past three starts. Perhaps that is foreshadowing that Buehrle is finally entering some sort of decline, even if it’s not significant.
Kyle Kendrick, meanwhile, usually is a likely candidate for an over, or at least that has been the case in recent years, but ever since getting the chance to start against, he’s been actually pretty good. In fact, he’s coming off an unlikely complete game shutout of the defending World Champion Cardinals (On the road), and overall over his past three starts, he’s only allowed three earned runs over his past 22 innings. That’s impressive, but it’s not the real Kyle Kendrick, meaning his numbers are about to suffer a bit. Tonight’s assignment seems like a good spot for that to begin, as he’s taking on a hot Marlins lineup. Considering Kendrick’s inability to strike out batters (Only 24 in 41 IP) and a relatively high WHIP (1.37), that type of pitching doesn’t usually add up to success against a live offense like Miami’s, in which their weakness is the strikeout. But if Kendrick is unable to sit these guys down and is constantly letting the ball go into play, well, that will lead to baserunners for a team that can easily drive home all of those runners with one swing. That being known, Kendrick’s style may not mesh in his first bout with the new-look Marlins.
Other 6/1 MLBOver/Unders I’m Taking:
Mike Minor vs Stephen Strasburg UNDER 7.5 (Yes, Minor has been awful this year, and yes, Strasburg has actually struggled against the Braves. BUT, when you have a vibe that the worst-case scenario is most likely 6-2, combined with the factt hat Vegas purposely made this line lower than it SHOULD have been, well, that’s worth at least a small bet)
Wei-Yin Chen vs David Price UNDER 7 (I just continue to be impressed by Wei-Yin Chen. No one saw this coming other than Baltimore’s scouting team, apparently. What a pick-up)
Colby Lewis vs Jerome Williams OVER 8.5 (Worst case scenario is probably 5-3)
Carl Pavano vs Derek Lowe OVER 9
Other 6/1 MLB Over/Under Observations (Not necessarily games I’m taking):
-Like I said in my first paragraph, as soon as I saw Mike Leake vs JA Happ on tonight’s slate, my mind instantly thought of their matchup last year on a Tuesday night in Cincinnati in an under I lost. Then again, Happ is one of my top three favorite pitchers so I remember a decent amount of his past over/unders off the top of my head. At 8.5, I have to show discipline here because the final score could EASILY be 6-2 or 6-4. Too close to call, although I’d lean on the over.
-Same thing with Bartolo Colon vs Felipe Paulino. That matchup has 6-2 or 6-4/7-3 written all over it on this Friday night in Kansas City. Also, I’ve loved how Paulino has developed since his inconsistent days in Houston - I always said he’d be a big-league pitcher because he’s always had considerably high strikeout numbers with potentially dominant stuff. Great, great story.
-Leaning on Kevin Correia vs Randy Wolf over 8.5 but it could very easily be 5-3. Also, Wolf will inevitably improve his currently gaudy numbers; just not sure when it will happen.
-Wade Miley vs Clayton Richard reeks of 5-2 in a Friday night San Diego atmosphere. Too bad the line is 6.5 when it shouldn’t be, considering Arizona’s offense is potent and the Padres’ bats are about to break out with Carlos Quentin in there.
-Good luck to Casey Crosby in his debut tonight against the Yankees - that didn’t work out so well for Kansas City’s Will Smith, but at least Crosby is not pitching in New York. In a Friday night MLB Network game, I think Sabathia vs Crosby ends up either 5-3 or 7-2.
-Tonight marks the return of Josh Outman, who is relatively unknown to most baseballfans unfortunately, but this is a guy who displayed a lot of talent as astarter in Oakland before injuries derailed him. Also unfortunate is that his new opportunity is coming in Colorado where it’s incredibly tough to be a consistent pitcher, even if it’s not your fault. I’ll be paying attention to his performance.
**May Add More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104
Today is June 1st. I have not missed one day at all this year in doing these 1,000-2,000 word articles because, as you should be able to tell by now, I am more passionate and dedicated to MLB Over/Unders than anyone in this country - and that is not an exaggerated statement when I continually spend hours daily AND nightly on these aforementioned over/unders, just like last year. You can also tell I know as much as anybody when it comes to starting pitchers by the random over/under tidbits of information that I creepily recognize (Ex. I don’t care if you don’t believe me but when I first saw tonight’s Leake vs Happ matchup, my mind instantly remembered their game from last year in Cincinnati and the fact that it was on a Tuesday night! How many other people in the country would know that off the top of their head? Trust me, it’s a scary obsession) and how many under-the-radar pitchers I’ve discovered that no one saw coming (Ex. James McDonald, Bud Norris, Blake Beavan, Eric Stults, Nathan Adcock in his good start, the list goes on)
However, after yet another pair of awful breaks last night that led to me going “0-for-2” (Despite being 100-percent right on both games, yet they’re “losses"), I have to admit that I’m starting to lose my spirit, and that’s not good at all. To be successful in something in life, you have to maintain a passion for it, and you only do that when you’re having fun with it. I’ve always had fun with MLB Over/Unders, as you can all tell from how I cover this stuff with such enthusiasm every day over the course of the six-month season, but the bad breaks… Just. Don’t. Stop. Last night, Greinke vs Billingsley under 7 was 4-1 in the ninth inning. Two outs. Carlos Gomez, the scrawny outfielder known exclusively for his speed, somehow drilled a two-run homer to make it 6-1. Okay, even though that would never even happen in a video game, I guess I’ll settle for a push - Nope. Bottom of the ninth now, two outs, runner in scoring position for James Loney. Despite being up five, the Brewers ACTUALLY bring in a left-handed reliever, which should spell doom for over bettors with the fact that they’re actually trying in playing the correct lefty/lefty matchup (Loney hits .180 vs lefties). Doesn’t matter - Loney punches an RBI single, with two strikes of course, to kill the under. Meanwhile, in Scherzer vs Beckett under 9, you are supposed to be golden if your bold prediction of getting a quality start from BOTH pitchers at FenwayPark rings true. It happened, then the under, or at least a push, looked good when it was 4-3 in the 8th and 5-3 in the 9th. Wait for it, wait for it… two outs, NOBODY on base in the top of the ninth. Three straight hits later off Rich Hill and his 1.67 ERA (His career ERA with the RedSox was actually less than that) and the under is dead. Yes, bad breaks happen to everyone… BUT THEY SHOULDN’T BE HAPPENING ALMOST EVERY SINGLE DAY. THIS IS FAR FROM NORMAL.
As you can see, I’m nearing my breaking point. This is so frustrating because I mastered MLB Over/Unders last year in winning 57.5% of the time through almost 700 games after experimenting and crafting this very same technique in the two years prior (Although the average over/under line has changed significantly from 2009). Bullpens were not blowing unders at such a ridiculous pace, not even close. I’m attempting to keep my head up because I know these consistent wildly fluke-ish breaks have to stop at some point, but like I said, I’m nearing the breaking point, which is something I NEVER would have imagined. Anyway, only small bets today after being so rattled last night, as I can’t let it snowball my mindset so I’m being cautious on this Friday evening...
**DollarAmounts To Be Posted Later Leading Up To Gametime**
Chicago Cubs @ San Francisco Giants
Paul Maholm vs Madison Bumgarner
UNDER 7
I’m really curious about this game. First off, for those regular readers of mine, you know Paul Maholm is one of my favorite pitchers in all of baseball, and that’s been the case for a few years now. I just love his approach and calmness on the mound, where he usually gets it done despite not having overpowering stuff. Thus, he has all the tools to be one of those long-lasting crafty southpaws in this league, even if it’s not at the tippy top of a Major League rotation. I’ve been nearly perfect with Maholm this year, and while this isn’t a strong vibe I have on this game, it’s one I’ll ride with the belief that Maholm is bound to bounce back from his past few so-so starts. After all, this is a guy who, overall, has recovered nicely with his new team after a truly horrendous April. His last start actually was promising (Two runs in five innings in his big return to Pittsburgh, to follow up two bad starts prior), and this is a guy that has proved several times that he’s a streaky pitcher. His good work comes in bunches, so if his last start against the Pirates was any indication, we should get some steady contributions out of Maholm going forward in the near-future - hopefully including tonight. What should also help us is that the Giants hit only 11 home runs in ALL of May as a team (Yes, the Giants had less home runs than Josh Hamilton and Giancarlo Stanton), so we can only hope the Law of Averages doesn’t kick in and aid San Francisco with the long ball.
For most people, Madison Bumgarner is the real hook concerning this under, and there’s much reason for that. The young lefty is thriving once again in 2012, having a 5-4 record with a 3.14 ERA and a sparkling 1.11 WHIP. His 47:14 K:BB ratio also sticks out significantly. Furthermore, Bumgarner has an excellent track record versus the Cubs, holding them to three runs over 14 innings in two starts against them last year. Best of all, his .149 opposing batting average against them was his lowest against ANY team in which he made two or more starts throughout 2011. There’s no doubt Bumgarner is, and should continue to be, one of the better young left-handed starting pitchers in all of baseball - let’s hope we get that version tonight in securing a 3-2-ish result.
Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies
Mark Buehrle vs Kyle Kendrick
OVER 8.5
WhenI first saw this pitching matchup, I instantly had an over vibe, but was distraught when I saw the line was as high as 8.5. Thinking about it further, I started to appreciate that fact, as OBVIOUSLY, Vegas likes the over, too, for making the line that high. After all, given the fact that both guys have good ERA’s (One in the low 3’s, the other almost below 4), you’d think the line would be, at most, 8, as that’s what the line is almost always set at with those parameters, especially when it’s not in an extreme hitter’s park like Arlington or Coors Field (Although Citizen’s Bank Park is obviously a hitter’s park). That said, Vegas clearly has tipped their hand in making the line what it is, and combined with the vibe I had on the game, it’s a chance to capitalize on a solid over. Mark Buehrle, despite his older age, is not usually one to be a candidate for overs, as while he never really dominates an opposing batting order, he marvelously always maintains good numbers every year. In 2012, however, he has shown some kinks in his aging armor, as he’s given up four runs in two of his past three starts. Perhaps that is foreshadowing that Buehrle is finally entering some sort of decline, even if it’s not significant.
Kyle Kendrick, meanwhile, usually is a likely candidate for an over, or at least that has been the case in recent years, but ever since getting the chance to start against, he’s been actually pretty good. In fact, he’s coming off an unlikely complete game shutout of the defending World Champion Cardinals (On the road), and overall over his past three starts, he’s only allowed three earned runs over his past 22 innings. That’s impressive, but it’s not the real Kyle Kendrick, meaning his numbers are about to suffer a bit. Tonight’s assignment seems like a good spot for that to begin, as he’s taking on a hot Marlins lineup. Considering Kendrick’s inability to strike out batters (Only 24 in 41 IP) and a relatively high WHIP (1.37), that type of pitching doesn’t usually add up to success against a live offense like Miami’s, in which their weakness is the strikeout. But if Kendrick is unable to sit these guys down and is constantly letting the ball go into play, well, that will lead to baserunners for a team that can easily drive home all of those runners with one swing. That being known, Kendrick’s style may not mesh in his first bout with the new-look Marlins.
Other 6/1 MLBOver/Unders I’m Taking:
Mike Minor vs Stephen Strasburg UNDER 7.5 (Yes, Minor has been awful this year, and yes, Strasburg has actually struggled against the Braves. BUT, when you have a vibe that the worst-case scenario is most likely 6-2, combined with the factt hat Vegas purposely made this line lower than it SHOULD have been, well, that’s worth at least a small bet)
Wei-Yin Chen vs David Price UNDER 7 (I just continue to be impressed by Wei-Yin Chen. No one saw this coming other than Baltimore’s scouting team, apparently. What a pick-up)
Colby Lewis vs Jerome Williams OVER 8.5 (Worst case scenario is probably 5-3)
Carl Pavano vs Derek Lowe OVER 9
Other 6/1 MLB Over/Under Observations (Not necessarily games I’m taking):
-Like I said in my first paragraph, as soon as I saw Mike Leake vs JA Happ on tonight’s slate, my mind instantly thought of their matchup last year on a Tuesday night in Cincinnati in an under I lost. Then again, Happ is one of my top three favorite pitchers so I remember a decent amount of his past over/unders off the top of my head. At 8.5, I have to show discipline here because the final score could EASILY be 6-2 or 6-4. Too close to call, although I’d lean on the over.
-Same thing with Bartolo Colon vs Felipe Paulino. That matchup has 6-2 or 6-4/7-3 written all over it on this Friday night in Kansas City. Also, I’ve loved how Paulino has developed since his inconsistent days in Houston - I always said he’d be a big-league pitcher because he’s always had considerably high strikeout numbers with potentially dominant stuff. Great, great story.
-Leaning on Kevin Correia vs Randy Wolf over 8.5 but it could very easily be 5-3. Also, Wolf will inevitably improve his currently gaudy numbers; just not sure when it will happen.
-Wade Miley vs Clayton Richard reeks of 5-2 in a Friday night San Diego atmosphere. Too bad the line is 6.5 when it shouldn’t be, considering Arizona’s offense is potent and the Padres’ bats are about to break out with Carlos Quentin in there.
-Good luck to Casey Crosby in his debut tonight against the Yankees - that didn’t work out so well for Kansas City’s Will Smith, but at least Crosby is not pitching in New York. In a Friday night MLB Network game, I think Sabathia vs Crosby ends up either 5-3 or 7-2.
-Tonight marks the return of Josh Outman, who is relatively unknown to most baseballfans unfortunately, but this is a guy who displayed a lot of talent as astarter in Oakland before injuries derailed him. Also unfortunate is that his new opportunity is coming in Colorado where it’s incredibly tough to be a consistent pitcher, even if it’s not your fault. I’ll be paying attention to his performance.
**May Add More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**
