Saturday: Many one unit plays YTD: 78-70, +21.2 units

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Yesterday's KC play was only possible due to the complete incompetence of the A's hitting ability. I counted on that, but I also thought the Royals would have gotten to Colon more. He threw strikes, they hit them, but being the Royals, they spread out their hits over the game, leaving many runners stranded. Still……. I'm going to that well again.
KC -1. One unit. Luke Hochevar pitched much better last year in the second half, and he has good stuff. Unfortunately, he has these "big" innings when he gives up like 8 or 9 runs. It ruins his ERA. He now has had 4 quality starts, one against NYY and one vs. CWS. I'm betting he can handle Oakland. On the subject of the A's, they are either all a collection of 7-8-9 hitters and/or many belong in AAA. When Josh Reddick is your number 3 hitter, you're in trouble. Brandon McCarthy is coming off the DL with a shoulder strain and hopefully is not at the top of his game. Even if he is decent, I think the Royals are just much more likely to score some runs. I am going against the A's until I see them score 4 or 5 runs two games in a row.

Colorado/ LAD- Will get over 10 tomorrow, but will have to pay some extra juice. Coors Field finally gave Chris Capuano his first poor start (and 2 relievers for LA). Aaron Harang is much worse away from Dodger Stadium, as Nicasio is much worse in Coors Field (who isn't). Even with Tulowitzki out, the Rockies are killing it at home. Everybody is hitting, and that is even against good pitchers. The Dodgers also seem to hit better away from home. Rockies BP is crap, and the Dodgers is middle of the pack. One unit.
 

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Seattle/ Chisox- over 9 (+105) . One unit. This number seems high, but that's for a good reason. Two pitchers going tomorrow, Noesi and Floyd are NOT striking out anybody. They are pitching to contact consistently. Floyd's slider has flattened out and he is getting rocked lately. Noesi has pitched well, but I've got the feeling it won't last in this game with the White Sox hitting so well. Noesi lives and dies by giving up hit balls that are caught by his fielders. Both of these teams are also making very good contact. The Mariners are even walking more often, rare for them. Both teams have some hot hitters that should get to the starters. Thinking at least one of these guys blows up early. Might also take over for first 5 innings.

Baltimore: ML (+153) Though the Orioles are slumping, I like this high number and I like Matusz to pitch well in this game. He has been battle tested this year, facing some of the best teams in the majors, and has many quality starts. Orioles are well coached, with a good BP (so far), and know they need to break this skid. Hellickson has been very good for the Rays, but if his stats gravitate back closer to last year's stats, he is due for some poor outings. Also, the Rays are not really hitting that well. They do get timely hits, and this has given them many wins in close games. But their 2 best hitters vs. LHP are both on the DL (Longoria and Keppinger). One unit.

SF: One unit -1. Just really like the pitching matchup here. Cain is underrated, and that's saying something for a guy with his stats. Garza seems to be reeling lately, like he has lost some velocity. He has also pitched terrible away from Wrigley, if you can believe that. Also, huge BP advantage to the Giants.
 

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Minnesota. ML (+132) One unit. I am not a fan of Josh Tomlin. Straight, slow fastball, mediocre off speed pitches, except for his curve. Twins also finally have some guys back in the lineup to make their hitting respectable. PJ Walters is 4 for 4 in quality starts since being called up, and has 19Ks in 27 innings, which is pretty good for a guy on the Twins staff. All 4 starts were against good hitting teams. The Indians know how to win, but they have a few good hitters on the DL, and they go up and down in being able to score runs.
 

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Yankees one unit TT over 4.5. This is a reasonable number considering how bad Porcello and the Tiger bullpen has been. Porcello's stats in last 4 games: 20 IPS, 32 hits, 18 runs (14 ERs), 9 walks. The former wonder boy has regressed as time has gone by, and has less "wow" games that make you see his potential. His command has come and gone, but now seems more gone than here. His slider is up and he pitches too many balls in the middle of the plate, which the Yankees will likely capitalize on. I wouldn't say the Yankees are hitting "much"better, but slightly better,and many of their hitters can hit righties well. Comerica Park is a better than average hitter's park.
 

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Last play: Texas/ LA: one unit over 4 first 5 innings (+100) Both Darvish and CJ Wilson have a penchant for giving up early runs, or hopefully at least one of them. Darvish has been really wild lately, and the Angels are the kind of team to take the walks, steal bases and basically throw him off his game. Also both lineups have either great, good, or decent hitters 1-9. CJ Wilson dominates poor hitting clubs, but struggles in big games sometimes. Texas will be looking at this (and the Angels, who are now in contention) as a big game.
 

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I see you like the first 5's as well. They have been a gold mine for me. Got Tex/la at 3.5. GL
 

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