The Cat's MLB Over/Under Bets & Detailed Writeups - June 2, 2012 - YTD: 140-139-13

2012 MLB O/U Record: 140-139-13, -$1,081 (Been making bigger bets this year, with countless bad breaks, obviously)
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104


Not surprised at all to see yet another unpredictable bad break come into play with my best bet last night, as this is scarily legitimately becoming an everyday occurrence, and regular readers of these articles are noticing it, too. In case you missed it, my best bet Maholm vs Bumgarner under 7 was 4-0 in the ninth, meaning I could not have been anymore 100-percent right (As usual. Yawn.), but after Bumgarner’s failed attempt at going the distance, Santiago Casilla, one of the best late-inning relievers in ALL of baseball, served up a rare three-run homer off the bat of Alfonso Soriano, to make it 4-3, costing me a win and giving me a heart-breaking push. I mean, come on, this isn’t normal. It’s seriously like there’s supernatural forces that are coming into play trying to knock me out of this after my great success last year, because obviously, very, very, very few of these breaks are going my way. The last good break I had was MAY 20 in that Sunday afternoon Johnson vs Lowe over that was helped out by the bullpen… that’s 13 days ago, yet I’ve been onthe bitter end of AT LEAST 10 (Read past articles for proof if you haven't been following) cruel and unusual bad breaks since. Unbelievable, but you just have to somehow keep moving on…


Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays (Best Bet) - $98for $85
Felix Doubront vs Kyle Drabek
UNDER 10

The first game of this Saturday slate happens to be my best bet for the day, and there’s a lot of potential in this one. First off, it’s definitely rare to see a line in double digits these days (Especially when it’s a game outside of Coors Field, Arlington, and Yankee Stadium), so in those such instances, you have to examine the pitching matchup and try to figure out if one of the two guys scheduled to pitch is capable of shutting down the opposing offense considerably. Well, that case can be made for both guys, and let me start with someone who has turned me into a huge believer over the course of this season, Felix Doubront. I’ll be honest - coming into the season, I had Doubront pegged as nothing more than an at-most decent back-end of the rotation option, but let me tell you, from watching him pitch and maintain consistency over a few weeks, I have to upgrade my projection, as I can actually see him continue to develop into a frontline starter for years to come. He’s got good poise for a rookie, as displayed early on this season in a nationally-televised FOX Saturday matchup against the mighty Yankees when he shut them down for six innings. In addition, Doubront is currently in a rhythm at the current moment, as he’s yielded two runs or less in each of his last four starts, all of which coming against winning ballclubs. This is definitely a guy that can stick and will continue to make an impact as the season rolls on, especially with the Red Sox’ continued emergence.

As for the opposing hurler, I was always a believer in Kyle Drabek ever since he came over to Toronto in the Roy Halladay trade, and even with his up-and-down performance over the past month, I still am a fan of his potential. Drabek had his worst outing in his last start, when he got rocked around by the Rangers in Texas for nine runs in three innings. Of course, since it was at The Ballpark in Arlington, it can happen to any pitcher. As long as Drabek is mentally strong (Which I believe he is, given the quick start he had this year while putting last year’s struggles behind him), he is capable of bouncing back in his next start today, even if it’s against an offense as potent as the Red Sox. Drabek has top-of-the-rotation stuff, and was proving just that in mowing down lineups in the beginning of the year, en route to a 2.40 ERA throughout all of April. The main weakness of Drabek’s game is his control (37 walks in 55 innings), but against an aggressive offense like Boston that is currently mostly in swing mode, he can play that into his advantage. With the line set at 10, there’s room for error - let’s at least get one quality start here on this Saturday afternoon and we’ll be in a good position to win this under at the Rogers Centre.


**Will Add More Over/Unders Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**

you have actually had many good breaks go your way. Yesterday the Phillies great reliever Bastardo gve up 2 HR's in the 8th inning which got you the over. Also FYI, the Cubs have outscored their opponents by 13 runs in the 9th inning alone. they do this all the time. When Soriano came up I said "here comes a HR", because it's just what the cubs do which is why I never bet on them. I know you keep saying you've had 139 bad breaks this year, but the game is 9 innings. Doesnt matter if a team scores 4 in the 1st off the starter or 4 in the 9th off the closer.
I've had 1 bad break I can think of recently when TB had 5 errors to lose a close game late. If a HR bounces off Canseco's head and you lose, that is a fluke. Otherwise, just chalk it up to a loss and move on. Happens to us all, it's a tough sport. I've never hit under 60% but this year is gonna be tight cause it's been crazy. But like I've been saying, its VERY EARLY. Lots of time. FYI, I totally agree with you Bos/Tor total and write-up whether it hits or not, looks like the right call. GL with it

Cat - your write ups tend to focus on starting pitching, but I don't recall seeing alot of analysis regarding bullpens, which play such a big role in most total outcomes. Do you simply not include them in your write-up, or do you not place much weight on the pens?

vivadart said:

Cat - your write ups tend to focus on starting pitching, but I don't recall seeing alot of analysis regarding bullpens, which play such a big role in most total outcomes. Do you simply not include them in your write-up, or do you not place much weight on the pens?

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While I don't write about the bullpens, I do consider them mildly, as this is the same exact consideration I gave to them last year in using this same exact technique that won me 57.5% of my 670+ over/unders. Thus, since I'm stubborn and using something that worked so well for me, it's really tough to change it up, despite the probably historic number of bullpen collapses this season. At the same time, though, it's hard to truly examine the impact of a bullpen on any given over/under, because if you go into that kind of detail, THEN you also have to take into account the exact route the game will follow, which also requires you to back the winning team in the game, and as a result, that completely takes you into a different mindset, rather than fully focusing on the over/under of the game. Trust me, I've looked at this stuff inside and out in every way possible over the past few years, especially in 2011. But when it comes to bullpen activity, there's just so many unusual variables that can occur (Like Santiago Casilla blowing my under last night when he's been unhittable all year. Stuff like this has happened often, unfortunately).

As for this Doubront vs Drabek game, it's a real shame that the DEFENSE has played such a large role in how many runs have been scored. While they haven't changed the official scoring on the liner hit directly to Rasmus in center, that was clearly a ball that SHOULD have been caught (As the announcers even keep saying. "That's a ball that has to be caught if you're a Major League centerfielder," said Blue Jays color man Alan Ashby), and that came with two outs and two runs directly scoring on the play. The ball thrown in by Bautista to second that got away and wasn't backed up also led to a run on the ensuing double play. Doubront himself also made an error with two outs and no one on, which ruined his flow, and led to a couple of hits that drove in a run. Garbage.

And yes, bad fielding *can* happen. But I point it out because it's just another unusual fluke that keeps happening to me... every... day. This stuff did not strike me last year, which makes it so mind-boggling and frustrating.

skyla316 said:

you have actually had many good breaks go your way. Yesterday the Phillies great reliever Bastardo gve up 2 HR's in the 8th inning which got you the over. Also FYI, the Cubs have outscored their opponents by 13 runs in the 9th inning alone. they do this all the time. When Soriano came up I said "here comes a HR", because it's just what the cubs do which is why I never bet on them. I know you keep saying you've had 139 bad breaks this year, but the game is 9 innings. Doesnt matter if a team scores 4 in the 1st off the starter or 4 in the 9th off the closer.
I've had 1 bad break I can think of recently when TB had 5 errors to lose a close game late. If a HR bounces off Canseco's head and you lose, that is a fluke. Otherwise, just chalk it up to a loss and move on. Happens to us all, it's a tough sport. I've never hit under 60% but this year is gonna be tight cause it's been crazy. But like I've been saying, its VERY EARLY. Lots of time. FYI, I totally agree with you Bos/Tor total and write-up whether it hits or not, looks like the right call. GL with it

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Lol I like you skyla and you always have valid points. But there's no way the over in my Buehrle vs Kendrick game last night was a "good break." The over was on pace all game, even before the rain delay, and one could argue that it easily could have hit before those home runs based on the large village of baserunners that were stranded throughout the game (Ex. 1st and 3rd no one out, bases loaded one out, not producing any runs).

The Cubs one I give you credit for because that's a stat you own and most people do not realize (Including myself until you pointed that out). Still, it's "fluke-ish" because it came off the great Santiago Casilla, who has been as unhittable this year as any other late-inning reliever in baseball. The timing of it coming on a best bet under of mine just frustrates me so much because unlikely similar incidents of that caliber have been happening so often (Ex. .160-hitting Mike Nickeas, in a 1-for-22 slump, hitting his 2nd career home run, a grand slam, off Dale Thayer to ruin my 4-0 under with two outs in the 8th last Saturday. The list goes on).

Yeah, the Mike Nickeas one is weird, thats tough to swallow. A great rule of thumb is Dont Bet the Cubs. They are bad luck to whom ever get in bed with them, lol. FYI, we are both getting screwed in this Tor game by errors. no excuse for errors like im seeing

Adding Harang vs Nicasio under 10.5 $20 for $20

And there are just no words to describe that error by Sweeney. Just trying to throw the ball in after a simple single, slips out of his hands and goes right into the turf to let the runners advance and one to score.

Am I surprised yet another fluke bad break(s) has ruined a potential win? Of course not. That'll definitely be No. 1 on the SportsCenter Not Top 10

And we "lose" by a run because of .130-hitting Nick Punto's first homerun of the year in the 9th inning, not to mention the terrible fielding. Of course.

Of course.

Is this ever going to stop this year?

skyla316 said:

Yeah, the Mike Nickeas one is weird, thats tough to swallow. A great rule of thumb is Dont Bet the Cubs. They are bad luck to whom ever get in bed with them, lol. FYI, we are both getting screwed in this Tor game by errors. no excuse for errors like im seeing

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Haha. Bad luck SCRUBS!!!

Adding two more games from this Saturday night slate...

Latos vs Rodriguez OVER 7.5 - $30 for $30 (Vegas obviously agrees based on the fact that the line has stayed at 7.5 all day when it should've been 7 given the two pitchers going)
Hudson vs Volquez UNDER 6.5 - $22 for $20 (Be very cautious for 5-2)

I'd love to know what your record would be if had bet first five every game. My guess is you would be well over .500...you really should consider it and take the bullpen out of the equation.

darkstar77 said:

I'd love to know what your record would be if had bet first five every game. My guess is you would be well over .500...you really should consider it and take the bullpen out of the equation.

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I'd like to know that, too, but I don't envision myself crossing that line because I'm stubborn, plus regular over/unders are something I completely dominated last year and spent a few years to master, so I'm not letting two months throw me off the wagon. It's 100-percent obvious that I should be WELLLLLLLLL over .500 at this point when you compare the bad breaks I've received versus the rare, rare good breaks (Such as today), but you're right, it would be interesting to see how I'd do with those five-inning over/unders. I'm fully committed to my dear nine-inning ones, however.

As for today, nice comeback by myself after my typical bad-luck "loss" in the 1 o'clock game, as four errors led to a bunch of unearned runs, and that doesn't even include the critical play that WASN'T ruled an error by Colby Rasmus that led directly to two runs with two outs (I'll bet anything it's changed by Major League Baseball in the beginning of next week, the announcers kept referencing that also. So, if you had Kyle Drabek starting in fantasy today, expect fantasy formats to adjust his earned runs as well by subtracting two).

In any case, it's a 3-1 day for The Cat today, which I'll gladly take. Once I'm putting more days like consecutively together again, that will allow me to load up on each bet, as I get a better feel for each day's slate of games again, rather than just some. That's why I'm not worried at all - given the adversity I've had to face with the countless bad breaks, it might even be considered a miracle that I'm even over .500 (Which is embarrassing to begin with), so since this bad luck can't last ALL season, that makes me feel good about what's ahead. As long as I keep a steady head and positive mindset, I still have the ability to do whatever I want, and my constant spot-on analysis continues to prove it true. Like I said, I've ridden this rodeo before doing this every single day for six months. I've been in slumps before (Like everyone, of course), although never one where I was "officially" only a few games over .500 through two months. I know with 100-percent confidence that won't last, which is why I still haven't missed a day doing this. Just about everyone else in my position would have taken days or a week off - but that's just money you're missing out on. The countless great days are still ahead, everyone.