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All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise


PHILADELPHIA +101 over Miami
Just 3½ games separate first and last in the NL East with all five teams above .500. This combination of Miami and Carlos Zambrano is one that is worth fading, as Miami is hitting an abysmal .213 on the road and Zambrano is flashing a nearly identical skill set that resulted in a 4.82 ERA one season ago. The difference for Zambrano has been better luck (30%/69% hit %/strand% in 2011, compared to 24%/78% this year). Zambrano’s velocity is continuing its free-fall. His average fastball velocity is 88.9 mph so far. He'll have value in flashes but once his 24% H% and 78% S% normalize, his ERA will be lucky to stay below 4.00. Joe Blanton shut down Miami on April 12 (7 IP, 1 ER) and a 3.46 xERA paired with his outstanding control (10 BB in 62 IP) makes him one of the higher-upside pitchers in the league right now. Blanton’s 5.05 ERA is sure to come down at some point and while Zambrano’s is sure to rise. The misleading numbers on both these pitchers has the Fish falsely favored here and that’s reason to step in. Play: Philadelphia +101 (Risking 2 units).

CHICAGO -1½ +127 over Seattle
The Mariners ended Chicago’s nine-game winning streak last night but needed 10 runs to do so. With Kevin Millwood on hill, they may need another 10 runs here and chances are they’ll be hard-pressed to score against Chris Sale. As for Millwood, he has great numbers in recent starts but he has benefited greatly from a favorable hit/strand profile and he has terrible matchup numbers against the South Side. Current White Sox hitters have 46 hits in 137 career AB’s versus Millwood for a BA of .346. They also have a .385 on-base %, a sick .555 slugging % and a .940 OPS. Since May 14, a span of nine games at home, the White Sox are averaging 8.4 runs per game. When Millwood faced Chicago at pitcher-friendly Safeco on April 22, he was tagged for five runs in 5.1 innings. In 33 career AB’s against Chris Sale, current Mariners have struck out 14 times. That’s no surprise, as the Seattle lineup strikes out more than any other AL batting order (7.6 times per game). Sale has allowed one earned run or less in five of his past six starts and struck out 15 in his last start. Dating back to 2010, the South Side is 19-4 in their last 23 games against the M’s, with the White Sox outscoring them 125-62. Play: Chicago -1½ +127 (Risking 2 units).

 

Official Rx music critic and beer snob
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Bad thing about the Sox on Sundays is they sit 3-4 starters. Missed out on a big inning in the 2nd.
 

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