2012 MLB O/U Record: 143-140-13, -$1,109 (Been making bigger bets this year, with countless bad breaks,obviously)
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104
Fine 3-1 day yesterday despite ending about even, as my one “loss” was yet another game that I was spot-on right with my analysis in Doubront vs Drabek under10 (Whoever took the over made the wrong bet and, of course, got lucky with five errors that led to a bunch of unearned runs, and the ninth inning home run from .140-hitting Nick Punto… which was also his first of the year). But, as much as these unusual fluke breaks have been hitting me, I keep my head up because I know they can’t continue every single day (Despite how they pretty much have been the past two weeks), and since I’ve ridden this rodeo before, there’s no doubt the better days are upon the horizon very soon. Today, however, is just a laid-back day for me, as Sundays usually are. In case you are not familiar with my technique, I examine each pitching matchup the night before for a couple of hours one-by-one in chronological order (Before breaking it down over several additional hours the very next day, of course) when I come home, and it’s a lot of times difficult to be fully focused on Saturday nights when I come home - for obvious reasons. But, being that I take no days off, just like last year, the show continues nonetheless…
(Posting this early because I have one of the 1 o’clock games)
Phil Hughes vs Justin Verlander UNDER 8 - $17 for $13
Just a small bet, not only to get my feet wet on this beautiful first Sunday in June, but also because it’s a solid bet. As I’ve mentioned before, while it’s not usually a good idea to let the actual line itself dictate your opinion on a game (In any sport, for that matter, because it’s not your natural feeling for said game), it is a good idea to take an under 8 with Justin Verlander in it when the rare opportunity presents itself. The Tigers are kind of in survival mode at this point after starting out this 2012 campaign as the biggest underachievers in all of baseball (Red Sox have recovered. Royals closely behind in that department now), and with that being known, Verlander, the longstanding ace of the franchise, has to have the mindset that one of his precious starts cannot go to waste. In other words, as long as he’s fully into it, we should usually get him at his finest, especially when he’s coming off a rare disappointing start in Boston. As for Phil Hughes, I’ve emphasized how this guy’s stuff is as good as most. There’s a reason he was a highly coveted prospect for a long time, but for him, it’s just a matter of getting away fromhis nibbling habits around the strike zone and lowering his pitch count. I’ve been saying it for years, as a lot of scouts have, when Hughes has his command spot on (Like in the no-hitter he almost had in Texas several years back), he can be a really, really effective pitcher in this league, and it’s starting to show again, based on his last few starts. With the line as high as 8, there’s even a small window for error, but I’m making this a very small bet because these two offenses are capable of exploding at any time against any pitcher, and I didn’t really have a strong vibe on this game to begin with. Plus, it'll be aired nationally on TBS. Sunday TBS games can be tricky because they only come once a week (As opposed to an ESPN or MLB Network game).
**Will Add More Over/Unders In A Bit**
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104
Fine 3-1 day yesterday despite ending about even, as my one “loss” was yet another game that I was spot-on right with my analysis in Doubront vs Drabek under10 (Whoever took the over made the wrong bet and, of course, got lucky with five errors that led to a bunch of unearned runs, and the ninth inning home run from .140-hitting Nick Punto… which was also his first of the year). But, as much as these unusual fluke breaks have been hitting me, I keep my head up because I know they can’t continue every single day (Despite how they pretty much have been the past two weeks), and since I’ve ridden this rodeo before, there’s no doubt the better days are upon the horizon very soon. Today, however, is just a laid-back day for me, as Sundays usually are. In case you are not familiar with my technique, I examine each pitching matchup the night before for a couple of hours one-by-one in chronological order (Before breaking it down over several additional hours the very next day, of course) when I come home, and it’s a lot of times difficult to be fully focused on Saturday nights when I come home - for obvious reasons. But, being that I take no days off, just like last year, the show continues nonetheless…
(Posting this early because I have one of the 1 o’clock games)
Phil Hughes vs Justin Verlander UNDER 8 - $17 for $13
Just a small bet, not only to get my feet wet on this beautiful first Sunday in June, but also because it’s a solid bet. As I’ve mentioned before, while it’s not usually a good idea to let the actual line itself dictate your opinion on a game (In any sport, for that matter, because it’s not your natural feeling for said game), it is a good idea to take an under 8 with Justin Verlander in it when the rare opportunity presents itself. The Tigers are kind of in survival mode at this point after starting out this 2012 campaign as the biggest underachievers in all of baseball (Red Sox have recovered. Royals closely behind in that department now), and with that being known, Verlander, the longstanding ace of the franchise, has to have the mindset that one of his precious starts cannot go to waste. In other words, as long as he’s fully into it, we should usually get him at his finest, especially when he’s coming off a rare disappointing start in Boston. As for Phil Hughes, I’ve emphasized how this guy’s stuff is as good as most. There’s a reason he was a highly coveted prospect for a long time, but for him, it’s just a matter of getting away fromhis nibbling habits around the strike zone and lowering his pitch count. I’ve been saying it for years, as a lot of scouts have, when Hughes has his command spot on (Like in the no-hitter he almost had in Texas several years back), he can be a really, really effective pitcher in this league, and it’s starting to show again, based on his last few starts. With the line as high as 8, there’s even a small window for error, but I’m making this a very small bet because these two offenses are capable of exploding at any time against any pitcher, and I didn’t really have a strong vibe on this game to begin with. Plus, it'll be aired nationally on TBS. Sunday TBS games can be tricky because they only come once a week (As opposed to an ESPN or MLB Network game).
**Will Add More Over/Unders In A Bit**
