Yesterday 1 1 0 +0.54 Units
Last 30 Days 32 34 0 +9.48 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2012) 60 72 0 -4.70 Units
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise
Colorado +117 over ARIZONA
Colorado has won six of seven and current hitters have some pretty sweet numbers against Joe Saunders that include a .296 BA, a .354 OBP and a .835 OPS in 135 combined AB’s. Saunders is a great example of a favorite that should be avoided in most instances. 2011 was pure hit% and strand%-driven luck. His xERA shows he's the same guy that hasn't delivered acceptable numbers for four years running. Saunders overachieving allows us another opportunity to fade him while taking back a tag and we’re not about to miss it. Christian Friedrich has a 5.59 ERA and 1.59 WHIP after his first five starts of the season. Those numbers are misleading. His skills have been fantastic with 32 K’s in 29 innings with just eight walks issued. Blame a 42% hit rate and 64% strand for his early struggles. Friedrich has significant profit potential and if all things are equal, it begins here. Play: Colorado +117 (Risking 2 units).
Chicago +129 over SAN FRANCISCO
Ryan Vogelsong returned to the majors last season after spending four full seasons in Japan. This was as unlikely a return to MLB as we may ever see, as Vogelsong was better in his return than anything he showed in his prior MLB or Japan stints. Age, xERA and a poor history suggest that his success will be short lived. A 2.50/4.34 ERA/xERA split this year indicates high risk and not a situation to be backing him in this price range. The Cubs haven’t hit too many pitchers well but Ryan Vogelsong is one they have. Current Cubbies have 11 hits in 40 career AB’s (.275) versus Vogelsong with a .475 slugging % and a .808 OPS. While the Cubs have their struggles, Jeff Samardzija provides them their best chance to win. Samardzija has the second highest fastball velocity in the NL behind Stephen Strasburg. His 94.7 mph fastball has helped him strike out 65 batters in 64 frames. His 3.09 ERA comes with full skills support and you won’t find a pitcher in the league that is more under the radar than this outstanding young righty. Play: Chicago +129 (Risking 2 units).
Last 30 Days 32 34 0 +9.48 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2012) 60 72 0 -4.70 Units
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise
Colorado +117 over ARIZONA
Colorado has won six of seven and current hitters have some pretty sweet numbers against Joe Saunders that include a .296 BA, a .354 OBP and a .835 OPS in 135 combined AB’s. Saunders is a great example of a favorite that should be avoided in most instances. 2011 was pure hit% and strand%-driven luck. His xERA shows he's the same guy that hasn't delivered acceptable numbers for four years running. Saunders overachieving allows us another opportunity to fade him while taking back a tag and we’re not about to miss it. Christian Friedrich has a 5.59 ERA and 1.59 WHIP after his first five starts of the season. Those numbers are misleading. His skills have been fantastic with 32 K’s in 29 innings with just eight walks issued. Blame a 42% hit rate and 64% strand for his early struggles. Friedrich has significant profit potential and if all things are equal, it begins here. Play: Colorado +117 (Risking 2 units).
Chicago +129 over SAN FRANCISCO
Ryan Vogelsong returned to the majors last season after spending four full seasons in Japan. This was as unlikely a return to MLB as we may ever see, as Vogelsong was better in his return than anything he showed in his prior MLB or Japan stints. Age, xERA and a poor history suggest that his success will be short lived. A 2.50/4.34 ERA/xERA split this year indicates high risk and not a situation to be backing him in this price range. The Cubs haven’t hit too many pitchers well but Ryan Vogelsong is one they have. Current Cubbies have 11 hits in 40 career AB’s (.275) versus Vogelsong with a .475 slugging % and a .808 OPS. While the Cubs have their struggles, Jeff Samardzija provides them their best chance to win. Samardzija has the second highest fastball velocity in the NL behind Stephen Strasburg. His 94.7 mph fastball has helped him strike out 65 batters in 64 frames. His 3.09 ERA comes with full skills support and you won’t find a pitcher in the league that is more under the radar than this outstanding young righty. Play: Chicago +129 (Risking 2 units).
