The Cat's MLB Over/Under Bets & Detailed Writeups - June 4, 2012 - YTD: 145-141-13

2012 MLB O/U Record: 145-141-13, -$1,086 (Been making bigger bets this year, with countless bad breaks, obviously)
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104


8-4-1 in June so far, which is a positive sign for me getting back into my normal high 50’s-percentage rhythm. Once that happens, assuming the bad breaks have stopped plaguing me on a daily basis (And notice how I’m still not getting any good breaks, considering the last one I received was MAY 20), the money will easily take care of itself, which is why I still haven’t taken a day off - it’s inevitably guaranteed. Let’s start out the week right with these potential Monday night gems…


Los Angeles Dodgers @ Philadelphia Phillies
Clayton Kershaw vs Vance Worley
UNDER 6.5/7

I’d be a lot more into this game if it didn’t have the significant variable of Major League pitcher making his return after a lengthy stint on the DL. I have much reason to be cautious, and somewhat gun-shy, with a game like this, as each of you should always be in this instances, as I found out first-hand a few Mondays ago in that TimStauffer vs Ross Detwiler matchup. As it turned out, Stauffer apparently came off the DL a little too early and went right back on it right after his start (Despite making a couple of wildly successful rehab starts), as it was yet another game where I made the right bet (Stauffer owned the Nationals last year and his rehab starts indicated he had his normal approach and stuff going), but was not rewarded because of the injury variable (And horrible defense in that game ugh), which is why you have to take it light here.

Let’s start with the one certain thing we can work with, that being Clayton Kershaw. Or is it a certainty? A couple of weeks ago, he was in a best bet under of mine against the Astros, partly because he owned the Astros in the past two years as much as any other pitcher has owned an opposing team, but was touched up a bit that evening, and thankfully, it was my brilliant investment and perception on "unknown" underrated hurler Lucas Harrell that won that under. In any case, that, along with his most recent start in which he got tagged for five runs in less than six innings against the Brewers, might lead us to believe that perhaps Kershaw isn’t as automatic as we all want him to be based on his remarkable 2011 campaign. At the very least, he’s obviously one of the best in the game, and Kershaw is the kind of hard-working, passionate guy who strives in bouncing back from off performances. In fact, throughout all of last year,in the few instances Kershaw allowed four or more runs in a start, he allowed two or less in the next start in all but one occurrence. At the end of the day, this is a guy who takes a lot of pride in being one of the best out there so this is not a start he is taking for granted, especially airing nationally on ESPN. Thus, we should see him in top form.

That’s the easy part. Here’s the hard part: Taking a low under and expecting to get Vance Worley back in his usual form, even after making ZERO rehab starts. I mean, then again, Philadelphia handles pitching staffs as well as anybody in the game so you have to trustw hat they’re doing with Worley here. If they feel he’s had good bullpen sessions and didn’t need to go out on a rehab assignment, then you accept that with confidence. That’s what I’m doing here, albeit a little bit on the cautious side as well after being scarred from the aforementioned Stauffer incident, because Worley comes off as an intelligent man and a pitcher’spitcher. He’s picked up right where he left off last season, as he’s registered a 3-2 record with a 3.07 ERA and 1.34 WHIP, with his best stat being his impressive 45:15 K:BB ratio in 44 innings. I hope he doesn’t pull another Stauffer and magically appear on the DL after this game - if not, we should be in good shape for this under along the lines of 4-2.


**Will Add More Over/Unders Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**
(And with more write-ups)

Oh, and my amount on the game is $44 for $35 ($33 for $25 on under 7, even though I wish I put more on it last night when it was 7, and $11 for $10 on under 6.5)

Interesting note from ESPN's Sean McDonough: Neither team took batting practice with the tarp covering the field for awhile. I hope that favors our under, although interestingly enough, that should certainly favor someone if you took the first five innings under. Let's start the night off right

YES! And best of all, look who's got home plate tonight. It is, without question, my favorite unders umpire in the league who has been my favorite since 2010: DJ REYBURN!!!!! Love. This. Man.

I don't want to jinx it one out into the ballgame but my winning percentage on unders with DJ Reyburn is epic. I have full confidence in adding to that with this one

WTF, TWO BLOWN CALLS by umpire Daryl Cousins in the second inning already?? Replay confirmed it: Herrera was out at 2nd on the steal attempt. Then a few pitches later, Worley had him picked off at 2nd, as replay also showed. "Cousins already 0-for-2 on the night" - Rick Sutcliffe.

Shouldn't be surprised when you take one of my unders. The BS continues...

This cocksucker Reyburn is squeezing the fuck out of Worley too...fucking asshole

Damn. That was fast...

tar_heel_in_sc said:

This cocksucker Reyburn is squeezing the fuck out of Worley too...fucking asshole

Click to expand...

Yeah that was a surprising first inning, I've never seen Reyburn squeeze anyone. I'll sometimes look at the umpires before a game is played, but whenever I hear Reyburn is doing a game that I have an under in, I instantly get as excited. That was uncharacteristic out of him, although that rough first inning had more to do with the two blown calls at second base which led to Worley being visibily pissed off. I preach it all the time: Mentality is the most important factor in over/unders, and when a guy's mindset is affected negatively because of things he, or we for that matter, can't control (Blown calls in the first inning), it completely throws them off, especially in their first start back. It also kind of kills the buzz of making your first start back from injury.

We can still win it, though. No big deal there's three runs through two innings. An over/under isn't decided until the final out is recorded; can't stress that enough. Games are on pace all the time for something that don't end up hitting what they were on pace for. It's happened quite often, actually

Yeah that is true. But, the one thing that worries me about this is that Worley won't be out there long because of his limited pitch count, and the Philly pen is garbage. Kershaw will just about have to throw a shutout to keep this one under, and even that might not do it.

Good point, tarheel. That's a shame, too, because in all my research concerning this game, there was no statement saying his pitch count would be as extreme as pitches ugh. At least he's entered into a groove now.

Also, adding:

Cole De Vries vs Will Smith OVER 9.5 - $32 for $25
If you ask me, these are two of the bigger scrub rookie pitchers in the American League. Will Smith, despite winning his last start against Cleveland on the road, has shown me nothing significant in terms of potential and stuff in his first two starts. De Vries, meanwhile, projects out as nothing more than a mediocre middle-of-the-rotation pitcher with average stuff. I'm doing it for a small amount, though, as both guys have only had small sample sizes of Major League work to base my analysis off of, and I think ultimately, good hitting will prevail tonight in Kansas City.

*extreme as 75 pitches

Nice win in De Vries vs Smith over. Kershaw vs Worley under can still officially push (Since most of the bet was under 7), although it should've been more on the under to begin with, concerning the blown calls in the first inning leading to two of the runs, while Kershaw's one mistake all game somehow ended up in the seats courtesy of weak-hitting Placido Polanco to cause another two runs (Although that's not as bad as losing an under on a Nick Punto ninth-inning home run Saturday. Yeesh). Anyway, here's my best bet...


Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (Best Bet) - $56 for $45
Jason Vargas vs Ervin Santana
UNDER 7.5

Here we have an under that has a lot of potential, and it comes from the pitcher in this matchup that has had significantly lesser success so far this season than the other, if you can even call it that. The latter statement refers to Ervin Santana and his 2012 performance up to this point, in which he is currently carrying an ugly 2-6 record with a 4.78 ERA and 1.33 WHIP. See, the thing I like about spots like these for proven guys like Santana is you know they're going to turn it around, especially when they've displayed hints of it in recent outings. Before giving up five runs in his last start, Santana had a streak of six starts in which he allowed three runs or less in five of them. That's a sign that the 2011 Ervin Santana is rearing its head again, and I think we'll see more of that tonight.

Jason Vargas, meanwhile, has been going in a bit of an opposite direction, as after starting with a 2.79 ERA in mid-May, Vargas has surrendered three runs or more in each of his last four starts. One of those starts was against the Angels, when he went seven strong a few weeks ago, so it's not like he's suddenly lost his touch. He's still a very underrated pitcher that has proven, not just this year but in years' past, that he's an under-the-radar pitcher capable of contributing steady pitching over long stretches. Vargas, I believe, will get back into that groove of his in this affair tonight, and we even have a small room for error with the line at 7.5. Under it is.

In addition, the Mariners have my favorite hitting rookie of 2012, Munenori Kawasaki, in tonight's lineup. I note that because as much as I love him (Smart fielder, good baserunner), he's almost the equivalent of having a pitcher in the lineup. Hopefully I didn't just jinx his little production at the plate.

Okay, that's a push I'll take in Kershaw vs Worley under, since it was 4-3 early (Even though a good portion of those runs were caused by fluke-ish bullshit like the two admitted blown calls in the first inning... as usual with an under of mine), but under normal parameters, that's probably going en route to an under victory (Worley would have been in a better flow and lasted longer despite his relatively low pitch count).

As for tonight's best bet, 1-1 after one, but I'm not concerned at all. Santana cruised through the first two batters before an on-field delay (AHHHH, that's awful for a pitcher's rhythm) after catcher Bobby Wilson got drilled in the mask and had to checked out for a concussion. He stayed in the game, but Santana proceeded to give up a few consecutive hits leading to that one run, so hopefully he's able to develop another groove from the second and beyond. Meanwhile, Vargas bounced back nicely after facing a first-and-third, no-out situation to give up only one run, while striking out Trumbo and Morales consecutively. That would even give Nolan Ryan in his prime significant momentum going into the rest of the ballgame. Let's make this a 2-0 night.

CatsOverUnders said:

In addition, the Mariners have my favorite hitting rookie of 2012, Munenori Kawasaki, in tonight's lineup. I note that because as much as I love him (Smart fielder, good baserunner), he's almost the equivalent of having a pitcher in the lineup. Hopefully I didn't just jinx his little production at the plate.

Click to expand...

Uh, I think I just jinxed his production. Let me get this straight... the puniest shortstop in all of baseball, who was hitting .150 coming into tonight with TWO RBI ON THE SEASON, is going to have a THREE-RUN, TWO-OUT, BASES-CLEARING DOUBLE against me to beat the under after I professed my love for him? I guess that's a bad break I'll just laugh at. Santana walked six or seven tonight so we never had a chance in this one to begin with (Can't predict if a guy's command is going to be that off) so whatever, a 1-1-1 day.