2012 MLB O/U Record: 146-142-14, -$1,126 (Been making bigger bets this year, with countless bad breaks, obviously)
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104
1-1-1 day yesterday, featuring that disappointing loss in which Ervin Santana displayed absolutely zero command, which is always demoralizing in an over/under (Much like Ricky Romero’s career high in walks a few starts ago that ruined an under with James Shields’ gem) because every bit of top-notch analysis and predictions go out the window when a guy isn’t even coming close to hitting the strike zone all game - you just can’t predict that and you really don’t get a fair opportunity. In any case, I feel very good about this Tuesday, with a nice slate of action on the card tonight,including some of my favorites, so let’s just proceed to that…
**Dollar Amounts To Be Posted Later Leading Up To Gametime**
SeattleMariners @ Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (Best Bet)
Blake Beavan vs Garrett Richards
UNDER 8/8.5
It’s always a risky proposition when your best bet involves a guy making his first start of the year (And fourth Major League start of his career, no less), but that is the scenario we will be facing in this one as it pertains to Garrett Richards. Usually that is a tricky variable, but I believe this is a case of buying a guy relatively low (With the line being as high as it is) to start, yet still having a lot of potential with a decent amount of room for error. Richards is certainly no scrub, he’s had good potential for a couple of years now, and he displayed that a bit at the end of last year when he shut down the Texas Rangers in a start over five innings, giving up only two hits and one run. While his minor league numbers have not been great this year (4.31 ERA, 1.60 WHIP in 10 starts), I feel like he’s just one of those guys that’s capable of cranking it up once he’s facing big-league competition, as he showed that ability in spring training (3.54 ERA in 20-plus innings). Luckily, he won’t be facing one of the better American League offenses for his first start of the year, which gives him a real opportunity to quickly get on track while Jered Weaver is out on the DL. Mentally, pitchers treasure these kinds of chances more when they’re not being thrown into the fire right away against an offense like Texas or Boston, presenting to them the best chance to be successful from the get-go.
While Richards’ situation is certainly a variable you don’t have to worry about in most over/unders, we can at least take solace in the fact that the other starter schedule to go, Blake Beavan, is arguably one I know better than anybody in the country. In the very beginning of the season, I wrote about in great detail how Beavan was my No. 1 sleeper in all of baseball coming into this 2012 season, and at 3-4 with a 4.72 ERA and 1.28 WHIP, I must say that I didn’t expect his numbers to be where they currently stand at this point in time. Nonetheless, it’s not like his numbers are awful or anything; they’re still okay for a young pitcher in only his second season who is still adjusting to life as a Major League starting pitcher. That said, I STILL have everything invested into Beavan becoming a top-flight starter in this league so that’s a statement I still stand by 100-percent whend iscussing his potential. There is still no doubt in my mind that Beavan has lots and lots of success ahead of him, and he’s shown it this year in flashes despite the unspectacular numbers. For example, on two separate occasions this year, he kept Ranger hitters at bay, which is tough to do even once, yet he’s two-for-two, both times in Texas. He’s also had a good start in hitter-friendly Colorado when he beat the Rockies a few Sundays ago. In addition, he’s already had a quality start against these same Angels, which he posted only a couple of weeks ago in hurling seven terrific innings of five-hit ball. Trust me, when it comes to panning out under-the-radar pitchers, I am as good as anybody (Ex. Who else besides me said James McDonald would develop into an ace-caliber pitcher? Pretty sure I’m the only one outside of Pittsburgh who wrote about him extensively, and thought he had this potential even before he became a Pirate in 2010), and I will continue to stake that reputation on the emergence of Blake Beavan. This is a good spot for him.
St. Louis Cardinals @ Houston Astros
Jamie Garcia vs Lucas Harrell
UNDER 8.5
About a month ago, I had a Cardinals/Astros under that easily should have won, since it featured a predicted absolute dominant start from my boy Bud Norris, which, as I wrote about in great detail, was my main reason for making the bet, but ended up barely losing because of the rare instance in which Jamie Garcia was pelted hard by the Astros. In fact, it was his worst start of the year as he issued six runs in six innings. So why do I suddenly feel so confident that this go-around will be any different? Look at that aforementioned game closer. If you watched it, you would know Garcia actually fared muuuuuch, much better than his numbers indicate. First of all, four of those runs came in the first inning via grand slam from the underrated Chris Johnson, which proceeded consecutive walks with two outs in which you could easily make a case that Garcia was squeezed by home plate umpire Scott Barry. For a lot of pitchers, frustrating incidents like that can EASILY snowball, as what happened in that specific case, but it’s also easily avoidable, especially when you go into a start with the mindset well-aware that it already happened to you. The other two runs, meanwhile, came in the fourth inning from two measly hits, aided by a wild pitch. In his four other innings of work, Garcia retired ALL but one batter, leading me to believe that when he’s on, as has been the case for the majority of the year, he is more than capable of shutting down the Astros. Having gone through that experience already, Garcia should be even more focused pitchingat Minute Maid Park this time around, especially against an offense that is missing their best player in Carlos Lee. The Astros’ offense has been less efficient without El Caballo.
To most, Garcia is the more dependable option when trying to secure this under, but for me, Lucas Harrell is also an interesting factor that could easily boost our chances. A couple of weeks ago, he was in a best bet of mine in which I said he could go pitch-for-pitch with reigning NL Cy Young winner Clayton Kershaw (How many people in the country legitimately thought that besides me?), and as it turned out, he actually bested Kershaw in winning that game, while producing the best start of his career against the NL-leading Dodgers n route to a successful under. Since then, he’s made one start, and in that one start, let’s just say his ERA jumped up a full run. Then again, it came at every pitcher’s worst enemy, Coors Field, where he surrendered nine runs in only five innings. Ouch. When a shellacking like that occurs, a pitcher will always want to bounce back, so at least know Harrell will not be taking tonight’s start for granted at all. In fact, he’s been very good at home (2.31 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, .236 BAA) compared to on the road (6.13 ERA, 1.61 WHIP, .288 BAA) so at least we have that working in our favor. Furthermore, Harrell should not be considered just some random unknown scrub by anyone. As I have continually detailed in my analysis of Harrell, he is a former high-end prospect from the White Sox organization, so any success he experiences should be no surprise at all. This is a guy more than capable of sticking in the middle of some team’s rotation at the big-league level, and that is exactly what is taking place at the moment. That being said, Harrell should get back on track tonight and help keep this one relatively low-scoring.
Toronto Blue Jays @ Chicago White Sox
Ricky Romero vs Philip Humber
OVER 8/8.5
Here is a game that just really intrigues me on this Tuesday evening. First of all, while I am on the over of this game, in no way is that indicative of my feelings towards both of these pitchers, who just happen to be two guys I kind of like. Ricky Romero has had a very nice career so far, even while pitching for .500 Blue Jay teams in the toughest division in the American League, if not all of baseball, in arguably attaining ace status. Philip Humber, meanwhile, is a guy I’ve advocated since his huge potential with the Mets in believing he could always be a successful big-league starter, which, despite still being up in the air at this point, is still a sentiment I believe will ring true sooner than later. So, despite the good feelings I have towards both starters, I’m still easily going over here. Romero, as much as he has carried the Jays pitching staff in recent years, has gaudy split stats, which indicate that he’s a much different pitcher on the road (4.75 ERA, 1.52 WHIP) than at home (3.51 ERA, 1.12 WHIP). The stats mentioned are from this year alone but this is a trend I’ve noticed all throughout his career. Furthermore, he’s always excelled more on turf than grass, and of course, at U.S. Cellular Field in Chicago, he’ll be on grass under the Tuesday night sky.
Back to Humber, who has been very up-and-down since his precious perfect game over a month ago (Need I remind you, the same exact day as my own 8-0 perfect day when the under of that game was my best bet. Still love that fact), and I know that, without question, when this season is said and done, he’ll be having a lot more starts on the “up” side than “down.” There is no doubt in my mind that he can be a consistent successful pitcher at the big-league level, and he’s coming back to that level, as he’s allowed only two runs or less in three of his past four starts. His ERA currently sits at an ugly 5.37, and I would bet anything that his final numberin that category will be well under that (I wish sportsbooks let you bet on pitcher’s ERAs), but this just feels like a spot where he might be prone for a bad one. The Blue Jays are one of the more potent offenses in the league, and even at home, Humber’s numbers have been worse there (6.26 ERA, 1.68 WHIP) than on the road (4.38 ERA, 0.97 WHIP). The same also holds true for his split stats pitching during the day (4.07 ERA, 1.03 WHIP) and at night (6.51 ERA, 1.63 WHIP). This is a night affair, and while I don’t think those stats will ultimately hold up when 2012 comes to a close, I do think it is a trend that will rear its ugly head here this evening. This one looks like an 8-2/7-3 kind of game, with a vibe too vibrant to ignore.
Other 6/5 MLB Over/Unders I’m Taking:
Chad Billingsley vs Cliff Lee UNDER 7
**May Add More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104
1-1-1 day yesterday, featuring that disappointing loss in which Ervin Santana displayed absolutely zero command, which is always demoralizing in an over/under (Much like Ricky Romero’s career high in walks a few starts ago that ruined an under with James Shields’ gem) because every bit of top-notch analysis and predictions go out the window when a guy isn’t even coming close to hitting the strike zone all game - you just can’t predict that and you really don’t get a fair opportunity. In any case, I feel very good about this Tuesday, with a nice slate of action on the card tonight,including some of my favorites, so let’s just proceed to that…
**Dollar Amounts To Be Posted Later Leading Up To Gametime**
SeattleMariners @ Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (Best Bet)
Blake Beavan vs Garrett Richards
UNDER 8/8.5
It’s always a risky proposition when your best bet involves a guy making his first start of the year (And fourth Major League start of his career, no less), but that is the scenario we will be facing in this one as it pertains to Garrett Richards. Usually that is a tricky variable, but I believe this is a case of buying a guy relatively low (With the line being as high as it is) to start, yet still having a lot of potential with a decent amount of room for error. Richards is certainly no scrub, he’s had good potential for a couple of years now, and he displayed that a bit at the end of last year when he shut down the Texas Rangers in a start over five innings, giving up only two hits and one run. While his minor league numbers have not been great this year (4.31 ERA, 1.60 WHIP in 10 starts), I feel like he’s just one of those guys that’s capable of cranking it up once he’s facing big-league competition, as he showed that ability in spring training (3.54 ERA in 20-plus innings). Luckily, he won’t be facing one of the better American League offenses for his first start of the year, which gives him a real opportunity to quickly get on track while Jered Weaver is out on the DL. Mentally, pitchers treasure these kinds of chances more when they’re not being thrown into the fire right away against an offense like Texas or Boston, presenting to them the best chance to be successful from the get-go.
While Richards’ situation is certainly a variable you don’t have to worry about in most over/unders, we can at least take solace in the fact that the other starter schedule to go, Blake Beavan, is arguably one I know better than anybody in the country. In the very beginning of the season, I wrote about in great detail how Beavan was my No. 1 sleeper in all of baseball coming into this 2012 season, and at 3-4 with a 4.72 ERA and 1.28 WHIP, I must say that I didn’t expect his numbers to be where they currently stand at this point in time. Nonetheless, it’s not like his numbers are awful or anything; they’re still okay for a young pitcher in only his second season who is still adjusting to life as a Major League starting pitcher. That said, I STILL have everything invested into Beavan becoming a top-flight starter in this league so that’s a statement I still stand by 100-percent whend iscussing his potential. There is still no doubt in my mind that Beavan has lots and lots of success ahead of him, and he’s shown it this year in flashes despite the unspectacular numbers. For example, on two separate occasions this year, he kept Ranger hitters at bay, which is tough to do even once, yet he’s two-for-two, both times in Texas. He’s also had a good start in hitter-friendly Colorado when he beat the Rockies a few Sundays ago. In addition, he’s already had a quality start against these same Angels, which he posted only a couple of weeks ago in hurling seven terrific innings of five-hit ball. Trust me, when it comes to panning out under-the-radar pitchers, I am as good as anybody (Ex. Who else besides me said James McDonald would develop into an ace-caliber pitcher? Pretty sure I’m the only one outside of Pittsburgh who wrote about him extensively, and thought he had this potential even before he became a Pirate in 2010), and I will continue to stake that reputation on the emergence of Blake Beavan. This is a good spot for him.
St. Louis Cardinals @ Houston Astros
Jamie Garcia vs Lucas Harrell
UNDER 8.5
About a month ago, I had a Cardinals/Astros under that easily should have won, since it featured a predicted absolute dominant start from my boy Bud Norris, which, as I wrote about in great detail, was my main reason for making the bet, but ended up barely losing because of the rare instance in which Jamie Garcia was pelted hard by the Astros. In fact, it was his worst start of the year as he issued six runs in six innings. So why do I suddenly feel so confident that this go-around will be any different? Look at that aforementioned game closer. If you watched it, you would know Garcia actually fared muuuuuch, much better than his numbers indicate. First of all, four of those runs came in the first inning via grand slam from the underrated Chris Johnson, which proceeded consecutive walks with two outs in which you could easily make a case that Garcia was squeezed by home plate umpire Scott Barry. For a lot of pitchers, frustrating incidents like that can EASILY snowball, as what happened in that specific case, but it’s also easily avoidable, especially when you go into a start with the mindset well-aware that it already happened to you. The other two runs, meanwhile, came in the fourth inning from two measly hits, aided by a wild pitch. In his four other innings of work, Garcia retired ALL but one batter, leading me to believe that when he’s on, as has been the case for the majority of the year, he is more than capable of shutting down the Astros. Having gone through that experience already, Garcia should be even more focused pitchingat Minute Maid Park this time around, especially against an offense that is missing their best player in Carlos Lee. The Astros’ offense has been less efficient without El Caballo.
To most, Garcia is the more dependable option when trying to secure this under, but for me, Lucas Harrell is also an interesting factor that could easily boost our chances. A couple of weeks ago, he was in a best bet of mine in which I said he could go pitch-for-pitch with reigning NL Cy Young winner Clayton Kershaw (How many people in the country legitimately thought that besides me?), and as it turned out, he actually bested Kershaw in winning that game, while producing the best start of his career against the NL-leading Dodgers n route to a successful under. Since then, he’s made one start, and in that one start, let’s just say his ERA jumped up a full run. Then again, it came at every pitcher’s worst enemy, Coors Field, where he surrendered nine runs in only five innings. Ouch. When a shellacking like that occurs, a pitcher will always want to bounce back, so at least know Harrell will not be taking tonight’s start for granted at all. In fact, he’s been very good at home (2.31 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, .236 BAA) compared to on the road (6.13 ERA, 1.61 WHIP, .288 BAA) so at least we have that working in our favor. Furthermore, Harrell should not be considered just some random unknown scrub by anyone. As I have continually detailed in my analysis of Harrell, he is a former high-end prospect from the White Sox organization, so any success he experiences should be no surprise at all. This is a guy more than capable of sticking in the middle of some team’s rotation at the big-league level, and that is exactly what is taking place at the moment. That being said, Harrell should get back on track tonight and help keep this one relatively low-scoring.
Toronto Blue Jays @ Chicago White Sox
Ricky Romero vs Philip Humber
OVER 8/8.5
Here is a game that just really intrigues me on this Tuesday evening. First of all, while I am on the over of this game, in no way is that indicative of my feelings towards both of these pitchers, who just happen to be two guys I kind of like. Ricky Romero has had a very nice career so far, even while pitching for .500 Blue Jay teams in the toughest division in the American League, if not all of baseball, in arguably attaining ace status. Philip Humber, meanwhile, is a guy I’ve advocated since his huge potential with the Mets in believing he could always be a successful big-league starter, which, despite still being up in the air at this point, is still a sentiment I believe will ring true sooner than later. So, despite the good feelings I have towards both starters, I’m still easily going over here. Romero, as much as he has carried the Jays pitching staff in recent years, has gaudy split stats, which indicate that he’s a much different pitcher on the road (4.75 ERA, 1.52 WHIP) than at home (3.51 ERA, 1.12 WHIP). The stats mentioned are from this year alone but this is a trend I’ve noticed all throughout his career. Furthermore, he’s always excelled more on turf than grass, and of course, at U.S. Cellular Field in Chicago, he’ll be on grass under the Tuesday night sky.
Back to Humber, who has been very up-and-down since his precious perfect game over a month ago (Need I remind you, the same exact day as my own 8-0 perfect day when the under of that game was my best bet. Still love that fact), and I know that, without question, when this season is said and done, he’ll be having a lot more starts on the “up” side than “down.” There is no doubt in my mind that he can be a consistent successful pitcher at the big-league level, and he’s coming back to that level, as he’s allowed only two runs or less in three of his past four starts. His ERA currently sits at an ugly 5.37, and I would bet anything that his final numberin that category will be well under that (I wish sportsbooks let you bet on pitcher’s ERAs), but this just feels like a spot where he might be prone for a bad one. The Blue Jays are one of the more potent offenses in the league, and even at home, Humber’s numbers have been worse there (6.26 ERA, 1.68 WHIP) than on the road (4.38 ERA, 0.97 WHIP). The same also holds true for his split stats pitching during the day (4.07 ERA, 1.03 WHIP) and at night (6.51 ERA, 1.63 WHIP). This is a night affair, and while I don’t think those stats will ultimately hold up when 2012 comes to a close, I do think it is a trend that will rear its ugly head here this evening. This one looks like an 8-2/7-3 kind of game, with a vibe too vibrant to ignore.
Other 6/5 MLB Over/Unders I’m Taking:
Chad Billingsley vs Cliff Lee UNDER 7
**May Add More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**
