Yesterday 2 0 0 +6.10 Units
Last 30 Days 33 32 0 +17.66 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2012) 63 73 0 +1.74 Units
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise
N.Y. Mets +144 over WASHINGTON
Prior to scoring seven times last night, the Nationals scored three runs or less in their previous five games. They’ve lost four of six and they’re just too big a risk laying significant juice because of that lack of offense. Edwin Jackson will face a Mets’ line-up with the best road BA in the NL this season. Jackson has been solid this season and his 3.17 ERA comes with full skills support. However, he’s had six quality starts in a row and that’s a rare feat for Jackson. His stock is at its highest point right now and that’s commonly when we become sellers. In two starts, Jeremy Hefner has logged one disaster and one gem. His 5.60 ERA in 18 IP hides his 12 K’s and 1 walk over that span. His 3.52 xERA shows what could have been, if not for a 55% strand rate. Outstanding control has been a part of his skill set in the minors and he's been successful in bringing that to the majors. He's worth keeping on your radar, as his solid skills should bring some excellent results and it could begin here. Play: N.Y. Mets +144 (Risking 2 units).
Los Angeles +106 over PHILADELPHIA
The Dodgers go for the sweep here and there’s no reason they can’t get it against Kyle Kendrick. Some recent success, combined with Roy Halladay's injury, has Kendrick moving up the radar board but his 4.35 xERA shows that little has changed. His low strikeout total won't continue to work with a sub-50% groundball rate. His ERA is likely to remain above 4.00 and once the Phillies are healthy, he will head back to the bullpen because that’s who he is. The Phillies continue to struggle at the plate and they’ve won just three of nine games at home against southpaws. They’ll face another one here in Chris Capuano. Capuano has 61 K’s in 68 frames. Prior to giving up seven runs (four earned) in his last start at Coors Field, Capuano had gone nine straight games allowing three runs or less. In eight of those nine starts he allowed two runs or less. We get a tag against a laboring Phillies team with an inferior pitcher on the mound and that sets this one up to step in. Play: Los Angeles +106 (Risking 2 units).
Colorado +128 over ARIZONA
Wade Miley has raced out to a 6-2 start and 2.72 ERA. The lefty has quickly emerged as a replacement for ineffective Josh Collmenter and now looks to be a permanent fixture in the Diamondbacks rotation. Miley's surface stats say he's a different pitcher this year but his skills say otherwise. He has an average strikeout rate of 36 batters in 60 innings. His 78% strand rate is suppressing his ERA. His balls in play are being hit at people but will eventually find some holes. Miley has been lucky to strand so many runners on base and avoid home runs. Eventually, Miley's pedestrian skills will shine through and the good fortune will run out. If you’ve made a profit on Miley so far, it’s time to cash out. The Rockies had to be encouraged by what they saw from Josh Outman’s 3.1 innings on Friday as they replacement for Jamie Moyer. He allowed two hits, walked none and struck out five. Outman looked like the promising lefthander whose TJ surgery interrupted a fine 2009. After missing all of 2010 and logging only 58 innings last year, the Rockies plan to extend his pitch count a little more here. In his 8 innings to date, Outman has punched out 14, which definitely puts him on our radar but this one is more about fading Miley. Play: Colorado +128 (Risking 2 units).
Last 30 Days 33 32 0 +17.66 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2012) 63 73 0 +1.74 Units
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise
N.Y. Mets +144 over WASHINGTON
Prior to scoring seven times last night, the Nationals scored three runs or less in their previous five games. They’ve lost four of six and they’re just too big a risk laying significant juice because of that lack of offense. Edwin Jackson will face a Mets’ line-up with the best road BA in the NL this season. Jackson has been solid this season and his 3.17 ERA comes with full skills support. However, he’s had six quality starts in a row and that’s a rare feat for Jackson. His stock is at its highest point right now and that’s commonly when we become sellers. In two starts, Jeremy Hefner has logged one disaster and one gem. His 5.60 ERA in 18 IP hides his 12 K’s and 1 walk over that span. His 3.52 xERA shows what could have been, if not for a 55% strand rate. Outstanding control has been a part of his skill set in the minors and he's been successful in bringing that to the majors. He's worth keeping on your radar, as his solid skills should bring some excellent results and it could begin here. Play: N.Y. Mets +144 (Risking 2 units).
Los Angeles +106 over PHILADELPHIA
The Dodgers go for the sweep here and there’s no reason they can’t get it against Kyle Kendrick. Some recent success, combined with Roy Halladay's injury, has Kendrick moving up the radar board but his 4.35 xERA shows that little has changed. His low strikeout total won't continue to work with a sub-50% groundball rate. His ERA is likely to remain above 4.00 and once the Phillies are healthy, he will head back to the bullpen because that’s who he is. The Phillies continue to struggle at the plate and they’ve won just three of nine games at home against southpaws. They’ll face another one here in Chris Capuano. Capuano has 61 K’s in 68 frames. Prior to giving up seven runs (four earned) in his last start at Coors Field, Capuano had gone nine straight games allowing three runs or less. In eight of those nine starts he allowed two runs or less. We get a tag against a laboring Phillies team with an inferior pitcher on the mound and that sets this one up to step in. Play: Los Angeles +106 (Risking 2 units).
Colorado +128 over ARIZONA
Wade Miley has raced out to a 6-2 start and 2.72 ERA. The lefty has quickly emerged as a replacement for ineffective Josh Collmenter and now looks to be a permanent fixture in the Diamondbacks rotation. Miley's surface stats say he's a different pitcher this year but his skills say otherwise. He has an average strikeout rate of 36 batters in 60 innings. His 78% strand rate is suppressing his ERA. His balls in play are being hit at people but will eventually find some holes. Miley has been lucky to strand so many runners on base and avoid home runs. Eventually, Miley's pedestrian skills will shine through and the good fortune will run out. If you’ve made a profit on Miley so far, it’s time to cash out. The Rockies had to be encouraged by what they saw from Josh Outman’s 3.1 innings on Friday as they replacement for Jamie Moyer. He allowed two hits, walked none and struck out five. Outman looked like the promising lefthander whose TJ surgery interrupted a fine 2009. After missing all of 2010 and logging only 58 innings last year, the Rockies plan to extend his pitch count a little more here. In his 8 innings to date, Outman has punched out 14, which definitely puts him on our radar but this one is more about fading Miley. Play: Colorado +128 (Risking 2 units).
