The Cat's MLB Over/Under Bets & Detailed Writeups - June 6, 2012 - YTD: 149-143-14

CatsOverUnders · Jun 6, 2012

2012 MLB O/U Record: 149-143-14, -$1,015 (Been making bigger bets this year, with countless bad breaks, obviously)
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104

Nice 3-1 day yesterday, including a victorious best bet (Could I have been any more right about Garrett Richards? He’ll have a spot even when Jered Weaver returns), which makes me 12-6-2 in the month of June, which is exactly what I expect to be doing. As long as this continues, I’ll get back into my comfort zone, which is when a bettor is at his best, because even though the majority of my losses have been directly due to bad breaks and fluke-ish occurrences, it really takes you out of your zone because you’re not being rewarded for your hard work, and as a result, you second-guess yourself, which completely removes you out of your rhythm. So, as long as the bad breaks can stay away from my games, I’ll be in good shape and back on track, when the money will inevitably be pouring in. Let’s hope my roll in June continues here tonight, albeit on what has been my toughest day of the week…

(Posting this early because my first game is about to start soon. Other detailed analysis to be posted in a few minutes)

Madison Bumgarner vs Clayton Richard OVER 6 - $21 for $15

CatsOverUnders · Jun 6, 2012

Good start to the evening, as my Bumgarner vs Richard over 6 is already halfway there through half an inning. Anyway, here's the rest of my card, including my big best bet tonight...

St. Louis Cardinals @ Houston Astros (Best Bet) - $165 for $145
Adam Wainwright vs Bud Norris
UNDER 8

The more things change, the more things stay the same. It’s often a vastly underrated quote, despite its significance in having the potential to be applied in almost any given situation. The same certainly takes shape here, as I feel like almost every five or six days, I’m writing in great detail about a Bud Norris start, and it’s just about always on the under side of the fence. There’s plenty of good reason for that, as besides being my favorite pitcher in all of baseball, he’s easily among the most underrated, as he was proving with one of the greatest single months in Major League history (May) before enduring the absolute worst start of his career (He had given up one run in 26 innings before a shaky start against the Dodgers, then a miserable one at Coors against the Rockies). So, that’s a variable you rarely involve yourself in - betting on an over/under where one of the pitchersis coming off *the* worst start of his career, and an ugly one at that in which Norris’ ERA rose from a very nice 3.34 to 4.52, since he allowed nine runs in less than two innings. Yuck. But, that is something we can use to our advantage, as from tracking Bud Norris very closely since his rookie season of 2009, he can be a very passionate and gutsy pitcher. He comes off as a determined young man who always strives for the best (That’s not a vibe a ton of pitchers give me, you know), and best of all, he’s entering this affair going up against the team that he arguably owns more than any active other pitcher owns a franchise in all of baseball. Listen to this, and it’s a stat I analyzed weeks ago on here and have noticed for quite some time: In 11 career starts against St. Louis (Including six shutout innings/three-hit performance versus them in early May), Norris is now 7-2 witha 2.17 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, and 56 Ks in 70 IP. Furthermore, he has always done his best work at home in Minute Maid Park throughout his career (3.79 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, .235 BAA) compared to on the road (5.03 ERA, 1.51 WHIP, .281 BAA). Statistically, this is as good a spot as you can grab Bud Norris in for an under, given the team he’s facing and where it’s taking place. Period.

Then, there is Adam Wainwright. I still can’t get over the fact that in a Wainwright vs Norris matchup, two guys who have shown ace-caliber stuff on many occasions, Vegas was actually crazy enough to set the line at 8, considering the fact that if you saw this same exact matchup last year or two years ago, it would 100-percent be 7 or 7.5. Crazy times, man. Obviously, though, this isn’t the same Adam Wainwright that we grew accustomed to over the years as a perennial National League Cy Young candidate, but that doesn’t mean this isn’t a great spot to buy him relatively low because essentially, that is exactly what we’re doing before Wainwright inevitably becomes more relevant again. He’s shown shades of his old self, like twirling a complete game shutout against the Padres three starts ago in which he struck out nine. In the start proceeding it, he tallied up six more shutout innings against the Phillies, before having a setback by issuing seven runs in six innings against the Mets, although most of those runs came late in the outing, which happens. That known, Wainwright appeared to be returning to old form, or at least very close to it, which would still be excellent given what he’s been through, and considering he’s always been good against the Astros (Only ONE run allowed in his last 23 innings/3 starts against them, including one start this year that saw him throw 7 terrific innings with 7 Ks), it’s most probably that we see more of the vintage Adam Wainwright appearing. This under is worth a big bet with the line at 8, when both guys still have the ability in them to shut out any opposing offense on any given night.

Other 6/6 MLB Over/Unders I’m Taking:
Jeremy Hefner vs Edwin Jackson UNDER 8 -$30 for $25
Hector Noesi vs Jerome Williams OVER 8 -$21 for $20
Madison Bumgarner vs Clayton Richard OVER 6 - $21 for $15
Chris Capuano vs Kyle Kendrick OVER 8 -$18 for $15 (Capuano has been a remarkable story; I remember him being this dominant with the Brewers ‘06/’07-ish. BUT, he’s not this good. He’s due to come back down to earth, and the same goes for Kendrick)

**May Add More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**

DP5 · Jun 6, 2012

You are on a roll and maybe your hard work and analysis is starting to get rewarded. Good luck tonight and continued success.

CatsOverUnders · Jun 6, 2012

DP5 said:
You are on a roll and maybe your hard work and analysis is starting to get rewarded. Good luck tonight and continued success.

Thank you, it's appreciated. Not to sound too cocky or anything because it's easy to be humbled in this industry at ANY point in time, but I KNOW it will happen where I get back into my permanent, or very extended, groove. As I've stressed many times, I did this same exact routine every single day last year, just as I've done every single day this year, and it's just illogical in life for something to work 57.5% of the time in one year in almost 700 games, and then not come close to that percentage the very next year, with arguably MORE work put into it this year (Since I'm writing and researching everything in great detail this year, when I wasn't doing that last year). Thus, this should be the time it starts going back to my winning percentage from last year, or at least closer to it. Let's just hope it keeps up because I do my best betting in bunches.

vinscully · Jun 6, 2012

good stuff, BOL

CatsOverUnders · Jun 6, 2012

Adding another game:

Brandon Morrow vs Jose Quintana UNDER 8.5 - $30 for $25
Glad the line went back to 8.5, as I was waiting to see if it would return there after opening at exactly that last night. Anyway, as everyone should have noticed by now, Brandon Morrow is finally living up to his ace potential tag that he's had for years now, and it should come as no surprise to anyone. He's always possessed excellent stuff, and now that he's put it all together, he's becoming the Blue Jays' definite ace, especially with Ricky Romero declining a tad bit. Morrow is legit. Meanwhile, Jose Quintana is a big variable, making his second start (And he was ejected in his first start early in the third or fourth inning; he was doing fine up to that point). This guy stuck out to me in his lone long relief appearance in a doubleheader game against the Indians, which was his Major League debut, and I have a strong feeling he's on the verge of becoming one of my favorite pitchers this year. 5-3 is where I project this game to be.

CatsOverUnders · Jun 6, 2012

To add on to my previous analysis - Just pay attention to the name Jose Quintana. This IS a guy that will stick at the Major League level this year as a pretty effective starter. Considering my best work comes from discovering under-the-radar guys (Ex. Predicting James McDonald's amazing success, which is why he was my second favorite pitcher in all of baseball coming into this season; now he's a Cy Young candidate!), you can expect to hear the name "Jose Quintana" a lot more this season.

CatsOverUnders · Jun 6, 2012

Adding another $12 for $10 on my Wainwright vs Norris under 8

CatsOverUnders · Jun 6, 2012

And the dominance continues... 5-0-1 today to move to 17-6-3 in June. THIS IS WHAT I EXPECT.

But wow, that Wainwright vs Norris under was quite the ride. One, thank you Angel Hernandez for the larger-than-average strike zone; it was DJ Reyburn-esque. Two, while both pitchers certainly pitched well enough for an under 8 (Norris 12 Ks in 6 IP, Wainwright had a no-hitter into the 5th), there was one play, for those that didn't see the game, where Marwin Gonzalez put down a sac bunt with zero outs and Jason Castro on first in the bottom of the 8th, and Matt Adams air-mailed the throw over first. It rolled long enough for third base coach Dave Clark (My hero when he was the interim manager that helped that 09 Astros team prevail over 73 wins) to wave Castro home, and he was barely nailed at the plate by a throw from Descalso. So, instead of it being 2nd and 3rd with no outs while down 4-3, it was just a runner on 2nd with one out, a minor jam that St. Louis escaped.

Wow what a win, and a huge momentous 5-0-1 day for me to help me overcome my Wednesday woes, as Wednesdays have been my worst day this year. Feeling my groove again and I do best with my confidence fully restored.

CatsOverUnders · Jun 7, 2012

Today's thread to be posted shortly, for those wondering. I have one of the 1 o'clock games from today's shortened slate

vinscully · Jun 7, 2012

Good stuff in this thread, thx.

BOL

varkeyboy · Jun 7, 2012

Nice sweep. Just wish u can post a bit earlier.

dast · Jun 7, 2012

varkeyboy said:
Nice sweep. Just wish u can post a bit earlier.

yes, that would be great

The Cat's MLB Over/Under Bets & Detailed Writeups - June 6, 2012 - YTD: 149-143-14

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