2012 MLB O/U Record: 154-143-15, -$785 (Been making bigger bets this year, with countless bad breaks, obviously)
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104
Very satisfying 5-0-1 performance yesterday (Although one could argue I SHOULD have been 6-0, since a game with Jeremy Hefner pitching on the road against the Nationals should have been 8.5and not 8. Vegas clearly squeezed on that one) to make me a very delightful 17-6-3 thus far in the month of June. I had numerous similar runs like this last year, leading me to the greatest accomplishment of my life (Winning 57.5% of almost 700 over/unders while betting literally every single day, just like I have this year) so as long as the bad unpredictable, fluke-ish breaks stay away, I expect this to continue. I’mcertainly not content with anything - certainly not as long as I’m well belowlast year’s pace - so my sense of urgency will remain intact, which is alwayscrucial because as a bettor, if you do get that feeling of content, you go intoa day with a much different mindset, completely separate from the one that got you going, and you can’t continue success like that. So, let’s just move on today’s somewhat shortened Thursday slate…
(Posting this early because I have one of the 1 o’clock games. More detailed analysis for other games to come a bit later)
Aaron Harang vs Cole Hamels UNDER 7.5 - $25 for $20
Starting out this Thursday with a solid under in a series that I’ve dominated. This is the fourth game of this Dodgers/Phillies series in Philadelphia, and in a rarity, I’ve taken every over/under between the two teams in this specific matchup, resulting in a 2-0-1 record. The one “push,”actually, I could easily argue should have been a win, since it came in that Kershaw vs Worley under 7 game from Monday night, where Worley, making his first start after an extended stint on the DL, gave up two in the first because of two ADMITTED blown calls by the second base umpire. Without that, there’s obviously no runs in that inning, and he probably gets into a different groove. But whatever. This one looks pretty good, as Cole Hamels has been absolutely terrific this year in going 8-2 with a 2.81 ERA. Meanwhile, Aaron Harang has improved much from his early-season struggles, showing he can still get it done at his older age, just like he proved last year with the Padres. He’s improved so much, in fact, that his ERA now sits below 4 at 3.90 (It was over 5 less than a month ago, remember). Harang, much like Hamels, still has his excellent strikeout numbers (56 in 64 IP), so as long he can continue to overpower opposing batting orders, he will remain a relevant starting pitcher while still being able to compete against the best, such as Hamels. Furthermore, another attractive item to like about this under is that this is a 1 o’clock game following a night game. In other words, the Dodgers, who are playing in their first series on the east coast after coming over from Colorado, will not be as adjusted in terms of their bodies and minds, seemingly playing what amounts to a 10 AM game, if it were on the west coast, following last night’s affair. As a result, their offense may not be as sharp, especially against aguy like Hamels who holds nothing back. I’m looking at a 5-2 kind of game.
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104
Very satisfying 5-0-1 performance yesterday (Although one could argue I SHOULD have been 6-0, since a game with Jeremy Hefner pitching on the road against the Nationals should have been 8.5and not 8. Vegas clearly squeezed on that one) to make me a very delightful 17-6-3 thus far in the month of June. I had numerous similar runs like this last year, leading me to the greatest accomplishment of my life (Winning 57.5% of almost 700 over/unders while betting literally every single day, just like I have this year) so as long as the bad unpredictable, fluke-ish breaks stay away, I expect this to continue. I’mcertainly not content with anything - certainly not as long as I’m well belowlast year’s pace - so my sense of urgency will remain intact, which is alwayscrucial because as a bettor, if you do get that feeling of content, you go intoa day with a much different mindset, completely separate from the one that got you going, and you can’t continue success like that. So, let’s just move on today’s somewhat shortened Thursday slate…
(Posting this early because I have one of the 1 o’clock games. More detailed analysis for other games to come a bit later)
Aaron Harang vs Cole Hamels UNDER 7.5 - $25 for $20
Starting out this Thursday with a solid under in a series that I’ve dominated. This is the fourth game of this Dodgers/Phillies series in Philadelphia, and in a rarity, I’ve taken every over/under between the two teams in this specific matchup, resulting in a 2-0-1 record. The one “push,”actually, I could easily argue should have been a win, since it came in that Kershaw vs Worley under 7 game from Monday night, where Worley, making his first start after an extended stint on the DL, gave up two in the first because of two ADMITTED blown calls by the second base umpire. Without that, there’s obviously no runs in that inning, and he probably gets into a different groove. But whatever. This one looks pretty good, as Cole Hamels has been absolutely terrific this year in going 8-2 with a 2.81 ERA. Meanwhile, Aaron Harang has improved much from his early-season struggles, showing he can still get it done at his older age, just like he proved last year with the Padres. He’s improved so much, in fact, that his ERA now sits below 4 at 3.90 (It was over 5 less than a month ago, remember). Harang, much like Hamels, still has his excellent strikeout numbers (56 in 64 IP), so as long he can continue to overpower opposing batting orders, he will remain a relevant starting pitcher while still being able to compete against the best, such as Hamels. Furthermore, another attractive item to like about this under is that this is a 1 o’clock game following a night game. In other words, the Dodgers, who are playing in their first series on the east coast after coming over from Colorado, will not be as adjusted in terms of their bodies and minds, seemingly playing what amounts to a 10 AM game, if it were on the west coast, following last night’s affair. As a result, their offense may not be as sharp, especially against aguy like Hamels who holds nothing back. I’m looking at a 5-2 kind of game.
