Yesterday 0 1 0 -2.00 Units
Last 30 Days 31 35 0 +8.06 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2012) 64 76 0 -2.14 Units
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise
N.Y. YANKEES -1½ +174 over N.Y. Mets
This one is all about fading Johan Santana the first game out after he tossed that unlikely no-hitter against the Cardinals. After the fifth inning or thereabouts, intensity levels skyrocket for pitchers who are throwing such a game. Santana deserves a nod here for throwing the first no-hitter in the Mets’ 51-year history on Friday but let’s not ignore the toll that takes and the 134 pitches it took to get it. It was also his second consecutive shutout and it’s very likely that the Yankees get to him early. The Yanks are hot too, having won 10 of their past 14 games. Hiroki Kuroda has been somewhat erratic of late but we’re not endorsing him. We’re endorsing the Yankees to get to Santana early and subsequently add a few more against a very shaky Mets pen. Play: N.Y. Yankees -1½ +174 (Risking 2 units).
San Diego +147 over MILWAUKEE
Against lefties, Edinson Volquez has struggled. However, against righties he can be downright dominant and as luck would have it, he’ll face a heavy right-handed batting line-up here. Volquez has a strong 50% groundball rate and 60 K’s in 71 frames. His Achilles Heel has been issuing walks (39) but most of those have come against lefties, where he has trouble finding the plate. With a little support, improved control vs. LH bats and some better luck against righties, Volquez could prove profitable the rest of the way. San Diego recently activated Carlos Quentin and he has gone yard five times in his first 23 AB’s. Shaun Marcum has been hit hard in three of his last four home games, where he’s sporting a 4.02 ERA. Marcum is a fly-ball pitcher and while he’s consistent, he pitches for an inconsistent team that is five games under .500 and two games under at home. Play: San Diego +147 (Risking 2 units).
Kansas City +124 over PITTSBURGH
The Pirates are coming off a big series win in Cincinnati to pull within two games of first place. Aside from the letdown possibility, the Pirates own the majors worst batting average at home (.214) and that makes them too big a risk. Luke Hochevar can’t catch a break, as a 35% hit rate and a 55% strand rate have been the main culprits behind his bloated 6.69 ERA. Six of Hochevar’s last seven starts have come against the Yanks twice, the Orioles twice, the White Sox and the Tigers. He’ll find the going much easier here. Erik Bedard has spent as much time on the DL over the past three years (313 days) than almost any pitcher in the bigs. When healthy, he’s good but it’s only a matter of time before his back, shoulder or elbow give out and we could be seeing signs of it right now. Bedard has allowed four runs or more in three of his last four starts and he’ll be facing a formidable opponent here. The Royals own the AL’s fourth best team batting average behind the Yankees, Red Sox and Tigers. Rarely are the Pirates favored by this much and while improved, they don’t merit this tag. Play: Kansas City +124 (Risking 2 units).
Last 30 Days 31 35 0 +8.06 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2012) 64 76 0 -2.14 Units
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise
N.Y. YANKEES -1½ +174 over N.Y. Mets
This one is all about fading Johan Santana the first game out after he tossed that unlikely no-hitter against the Cardinals. After the fifth inning or thereabouts, intensity levels skyrocket for pitchers who are throwing such a game. Santana deserves a nod here for throwing the first no-hitter in the Mets’ 51-year history on Friday but let’s not ignore the toll that takes and the 134 pitches it took to get it. It was also his second consecutive shutout and it’s very likely that the Yankees get to him early. The Yanks are hot too, having won 10 of their past 14 games. Hiroki Kuroda has been somewhat erratic of late but we’re not endorsing him. We’re endorsing the Yankees to get to Santana early and subsequently add a few more against a very shaky Mets pen. Play: N.Y. Yankees -1½ +174 (Risking 2 units).
San Diego +147 over MILWAUKEE
Against lefties, Edinson Volquez has struggled. However, against righties he can be downright dominant and as luck would have it, he’ll face a heavy right-handed batting line-up here. Volquez has a strong 50% groundball rate and 60 K’s in 71 frames. His Achilles Heel has been issuing walks (39) but most of those have come against lefties, where he has trouble finding the plate. With a little support, improved control vs. LH bats and some better luck against righties, Volquez could prove profitable the rest of the way. San Diego recently activated Carlos Quentin and he has gone yard five times in his first 23 AB’s. Shaun Marcum has been hit hard in three of his last four home games, where he’s sporting a 4.02 ERA. Marcum is a fly-ball pitcher and while he’s consistent, he pitches for an inconsistent team that is five games under .500 and two games under at home. Play: San Diego +147 (Risking 2 units).
Kansas City +124 over PITTSBURGH
The Pirates are coming off a big series win in Cincinnati to pull within two games of first place. Aside from the letdown possibility, the Pirates own the majors worst batting average at home (.214) and that makes them too big a risk. Luke Hochevar can’t catch a break, as a 35% hit rate and a 55% strand rate have been the main culprits behind his bloated 6.69 ERA. Six of Hochevar’s last seven starts have come against the Yanks twice, the Orioles twice, the White Sox and the Tigers. He’ll find the going much easier here. Erik Bedard has spent as much time on the DL over the past three years (313 days) than almost any pitcher in the bigs. When healthy, he’s good but it’s only a matter of time before his back, shoulder or elbow give out and we could be seeing signs of it right now. Bedard has allowed four runs or more in three of his last four starts and he’ll be facing a formidable opponent here. The Royals own the AL’s fourth best team batting average behind the Yankees, Red Sox and Tigers. Rarely are the Pirates favored by this much and while improved, they don’t merit this tag. Play: Kansas City +124 (Risking 2 units).
