The Cat's MLB Over/Under Bets & Detailed Writeups - June 8, 2012 - YTD: 154-145-15

2012 MLB O/U Record: 154-145-15, -$849 (Been making bigger bets this year, with countless bad breaks, obviously)
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104


Trying to sustain my rhythm and momentum in June, but it was tough to do that in yesterday’s 0-2 performance, as they were both games I was RIGHT on and not rewarded. After all, my Correia vs Leake under was 4-3 in the ninth inning with one of the top five or ten closers in all of baseball, Joel Hanrahan, in to close it out, which is exactly the position you want to be in and what I was aiming for, but Hanrahan uncharacteristically blew it. In my earlier game, Harang vs Hamels under, even with an assortment of unearned runs from each pitcher caused by unpredictable shitty defense, it was 4-3 in the ninth and I SHOULD have won that one as well, before the Phillies bullpen decided to implode in that final frame. Whatever. Luckily, it was two smaller bets so it barely phased me as I was analyzing today’s games all day and last night. At 17-8-3 in June thus far, I plan to keep it going on this beautiful Friday evening…


Kansas City Royals @ Pittsburgh Pirates - $50 for $52
Luke Hochevar vs Erik Bedard
UNDER 7

Not sure if this is going to be my best bet yet, as I’m still trying to finalize my strategy when approaching tonight’s entire card of over/unders, but it should be a very good bet at the very least that ends up around 7 no matter what. After all, look at how inexplicably low the line is and Vegas CLEARLYYYYYY agrees with my perception as it pertains to this specific matchup. Why is the over/under for this game 7? WHY? Luke Hochevar, by himself, has an ERA of up around 7, having shown little indication this entire season that would prove he’s capable of turning it around. Does he have enough talent to turn his 2012 campaign in the other direction? Absolutely! I know this 100-percent, and Hochevar is a guy I’m very good with, as evident when I went 6-1 with in his over/unders last year, and am 2-1 on him this year so far. Hochevar is a very underrated right-hander that unfortunately has the tendency to completely unravel in certain starts, which is why his stats can be more skewed to the high side. In actuality, he’s a pretty good strikeout pitcher with solid stuff in his repertoire, and when he’s on, he can string together several dominant innings in an outing. He’s shown that he can still possess that ability, like when he went into Chicago and shut out the White Sox over seven strong innings in mid-May. This is a perfect bounce-backspot for Hochevar, who should see his gaudy ERA come down significantly after this one.

Another strange oddity about this over/under is that Vegas is giving Erik Bedard way too much credit. His numbers for the season overall are above average (3.72 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 56 Ks in 55 IP), but a far cry from the statline he posted going into the middle of May, when his ERA was teetering just above 2.50. He’s given up four runs each in three of his last four starts, although that one start where he didn’t was an outing that saw him limit the Cubs to zero runs in six innings of work, thus giving me confidence that we can still attract that type of Bedard at this point in time.Yes, he has been erratic lately, but he’s due to return to usual form, which he’s flashed for much of the season. I believe he still has it in him, and will dig a little deeper in effort to keep the Pirates’ feel-good-story resurgence going. Vegas clearly loves it, I loved it before I even saw the line, and you should, too, despite it obviously being one of the shadiest over/under lines of the year.


Other6/8 MLB Over/Unders I’m Taking:
Rick Porcello vs Bronson Arroyo OVER 9 -$60 for $50
Jeremy Hellickson vs Ricky Nolasco UNDER8 - $32 for $30
Johan Santana vs Huroki Kuroda UNDER 9 -$18 for $15


**Will Add More Over/Under(s) ThroughoutDay Leading Up To Gametime**

Only half an inning in and I already wish I put twice as much on this game... look who's umping... my favorite umpire in the league, unders machine DJ REYBURN. It's already locked up

Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox - $47 for $40
Wandy Rodriguez vs Gavin Floyd
OVER 8

Bit of a peculiar decision by Vegas to lower the line down, from its opening mark of 8.5, down to 8, as Gavin Floyd has been the victim of a severe hit barrage in each of his last few starts. In fact, in each of his past four starts, he's given up at least FIVE runs, with two of those outings resulting in outputs of seven and nine runs. I, more than anyone, am not surprised at all, as I've been saying since last year that Floyd was always overrated and bottoms out as nothing more than a decent mid-rotation pitcher. Yes, at one time, he was once one of the most highly regarded prospects in all of baseball, but I've watched him enough times to judge him fully that he's really not as good as most people peg him out to be. Now, is he capable of re-surging and having a great start? Of course, he can have shutdown stuff on occasion. But most of the time, that is not the case, and I see him getting tagged a bit here, even though mentally he'll try to be at his best after his past four disastrous outings.

As much as I put down Floyd there, I may actually be more excited for Wandy Rodriguez partaking in this over. Considering he's 4-4 with a 3.14 ERA and 1.23 WHIP, not to mention 53 Ks in 77 IP (And he's actually a better strikeout pitcher than those numbers indicate), why is this so? Well, for one, he usually peaks in the beginning of the season, before coming down hard, and that is a trend I believe we'll start seeing more often than not as the oncoming weeks pass by. We've seen shades of that, such as his last start against the Reds (I took that over with this same reasoning and it should continue) when he got lit up for seven earned runs (Nine total) in five innings. There's no question Wandy is usually a very steady pitcher, but going to work in unfamiliar territory in a ballpark like U.S. Cellular Field where the scoreboard always has the potential to be lit up regularly throughout any contest, I envision him being off his game for another start, and ultimately, that'll contribute to the total going over 8.

Adding three more:

Nathan Eovaldi vs Kevin Millwood UNDER 7.5 - $24 for $20 (Eovaldi has been sneaky good, as he first showed us last year, so it should be no surprise to anyone. Millwood has been VERY effective lately)
Josh Tomlin vs Jake Westbrook OVER 9 - $21 for $20
CJ Wilson vs Alex White UNDER 9.5 - $17 for $15 (An under that high with CJ Wilson, even though it's actually 10 now, is always a good bet. Alex White is a Major League starter who will stick at this level)

There it is, another best bet victory. My Luke Hochevar record in over/unders over the years is definitely uncontested by anyone else in the country, although I wasn't as spot on with him as I was with Erik Bedard. That's a good thing, though, because trust me, Hochevar is a much better pitcher than his stats might lead you to believe.

Let the success continue tonight

Other best bet hits as well, Porcello vs Latos over 9. June is the month where I have re-discovered myself and this should easily continue

nice work man.

themailman59 said:

nice work man.

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Thank you. It just goes to show one of the rules of betting (If you have a proven track record) is to never give up. Skill and ability never goes away. Even when the bad breaks were hitting me on a daily basis on games I was right on (Based on the correct analysis that would turn out true and making the right bet based on that and the starting pitching matchup), you just have to keep going and get in your groove. That's what June has proven to me, because all these games I'm winning, I EARN, as opposed to getting breaks to win them. I obviously had slumps last year in my 57.5% season but never like the one I went through towards the end of May. Just have to stay on the wagon as long as possible and I will continue to deliver performances to all of you like I have been all month

Looks like a 6-2 night to make me 23-10-3 in June. See, this is how May and April should have went if it weren't for countless unpredictable fluke BS and half-run/one-run losses. Of course, my two losses tonight were by a measly run, so as expected, you could say I was right on all eight games tonight. Not going to be content at all

Gotta love an under on no hitter. However it appears Millwood definitely made a deal with the devil...suddenly lights out all year then in the process of a no hitter injuries groin. Probably gonna be off and on the dl rest of the year now with that groin lol

moocow said:

Gotta love an under on no hitter. However it appears Millwood definitely made a deal with the devil...suddenly lights out all year then in the process of a no hitter injuries groin. Probably gonna be off and on the dl rest of the year now with that groin lol

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I loved Millwood when he was a Ranger and have always rooted for him since, especially through that amazingly tough-luck year with Baltimore when he NEVER got any run support.

And yes, it's a good feeling to have the under in a no-hitter... Third one for me this year, in fact - the perfect game Beavan vs Humber matchup on my perfect 8-0 day 4/21 and the Hendriks vs Weaver no-hitter... Which somehow LOST because Liam Hendriks (Who I promise will be good when he's back) and the Twins bullpen were tagged by that Angels lineup