2012 MLB O/U Record: 154-145-15, -$849 (Been making bigger bets this year, with countless bad breaks, obviously)
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104
Trying to sustain my rhythm and momentum in June, but it was tough to do that in yesterday’s 0-2 performance, as they were both games I was RIGHT on and not rewarded. After all, my Correia vs Leake under was 4-3 in the ninth inning with one of the top five or ten closers in all of baseball, Joel Hanrahan, in to close it out, which is exactly the position you want to be in and what I was aiming for, but Hanrahan uncharacteristically blew it. In my earlier game, Harang vs Hamels under, even with an assortment of unearned runs from each pitcher caused by unpredictable shitty defense, it was 4-3 in the ninth and I SHOULD have won that one as well, before the Phillies bullpen decided to implode in that final frame. Whatever. Luckily, it was two smaller bets so it barely phased me as I was analyzing today’s games all day and last night. At 17-8-3 in June thus far, I plan to keep it going on this beautiful Friday evening…
Kansas City Royals @ Pittsburgh Pirates - $50 for $52
Luke Hochevar vs Erik Bedard
UNDER 7
Not sure if this is going to be my best bet yet, as I’m still trying to finalize my strategy when approaching tonight’s entire card of over/unders, but it should be a very good bet at the very least that ends up around 7 no matter what. After all, look at how inexplicably low the line is and Vegas CLEARLYYYYYY agrees with my perception as it pertains to this specific matchup. Why is the over/under for this game 7? WHY? Luke Hochevar, by himself, has an ERA of up around 7, having shown little indication this entire season that would prove he’s capable of turning it around. Does he have enough talent to turn his 2012 campaign in the other direction? Absolutely! I know this 100-percent, and Hochevar is a guy I’m very good with, as evident when I went 6-1 with in his over/unders last year, and am 2-1 on him this year so far. Hochevar is a very underrated right-hander that unfortunately has the tendency to completely unravel in certain starts, which is why his stats can be more skewed to the high side. In actuality, he’s a pretty good strikeout pitcher with solid stuff in his repertoire, and when he’s on, he can string together several dominant innings in an outing. He’s shown that he can still possess that ability, like when he went into Chicago and shut out the White Sox over seven strong innings in mid-May. This is a perfect bounce-backspot for Hochevar, who should see his gaudy ERA come down significantly after this one.
Another strange oddity about this over/under is that Vegas is giving Erik Bedard way too much credit. His numbers for the season overall are above average (3.72 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 56 Ks in 55 IP), but a far cry from the statline he posted going into the middle of May, when his ERA was teetering just above 2.50. He’s given up four runs each in three of his last four starts, although that one start where he didn’t was an outing that saw him limit the Cubs to zero runs in six innings of work, thus giving me confidence that we can still attract that type of Bedard at this point in time.Yes, he has been erratic lately, but he’s due to return to usual form, which he’s flashed for much of the season. I believe he still has it in him, and will dig a little deeper in effort to keep the Pirates’ feel-good-story resurgence going. Vegas clearly loves it, I loved it before I even saw the line, and you should, too, despite it obviously being one of the shadiest over/under lines of the year.
Other6/8 MLB Over/Unders I’m Taking:
Rick Porcello vs Bronson Arroyo OVER 9 -$60 for $50
Jeremy Hellickson vs Ricky Nolasco UNDER8 - $32 for $30
Johan Santana vs Huroki Kuroda UNDER 9 -$18 for $15
**Will Add More Over/Under(s) ThroughoutDay Leading Up To Gametime**
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104
Trying to sustain my rhythm and momentum in June, but it was tough to do that in yesterday’s 0-2 performance, as they were both games I was RIGHT on and not rewarded. After all, my Correia vs Leake under was 4-3 in the ninth inning with one of the top five or ten closers in all of baseball, Joel Hanrahan, in to close it out, which is exactly the position you want to be in and what I was aiming for, but Hanrahan uncharacteristically blew it. In my earlier game, Harang vs Hamels under, even with an assortment of unearned runs from each pitcher caused by unpredictable shitty defense, it was 4-3 in the ninth and I SHOULD have won that one as well, before the Phillies bullpen decided to implode in that final frame. Whatever. Luckily, it was two smaller bets so it barely phased me as I was analyzing today’s games all day and last night. At 17-8-3 in June thus far, I plan to keep it going on this beautiful Friday evening…
Kansas City Royals @ Pittsburgh Pirates - $50 for $52
Luke Hochevar vs Erik Bedard
UNDER 7
Not sure if this is going to be my best bet yet, as I’m still trying to finalize my strategy when approaching tonight’s entire card of over/unders, but it should be a very good bet at the very least that ends up around 7 no matter what. After all, look at how inexplicably low the line is and Vegas CLEARLYYYYYY agrees with my perception as it pertains to this specific matchup. Why is the over/under for this game 7? WHY? Luke Hochevar, by himself, has an ERA of up around 7, having shown little indication this entire season that would prove he’s capable of turning it around. Does he have enough talent to turn his 2012 campaign in the other direction? Absolutely! I know this 100-percent, and Hochevar is a guy I’m very good with, as evident when I went 6-1 with in his over/unders last year, and am 2-1 on him this year so far. Hochevar is a very underrated right-hander that unfortunately has the tendency to completely unravel in certain starts, which is why his stats can be more skewed to the high side. In actuality, he’s a pretty good strikeout pitcher with solid stuff in his repertoire, and when he’s on, he can string together several dominant innings in an outing. He’s shown that he can still possess that ability, like when he went into Chicago and shut out the White Sox over seven strong innings in mid-May. This is a perfect bounce-backspot for Hochevar, who should see his gaudy ERA come down significantly after this one.
Another strange oddity about this over/under is that Vegas is giving Erik Bedard way too much credit. His numbers for the season overall are above average (3.72 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 56 Ks in 55 IP), but a far cry from the statline he posted going into the middle of May, when his ERA was teetering just above 2.50. He’s given up four runs each in three of his last four starts, although that one start where he didn’t was an outing that saw him limit the Cubs to zero runs in six innings of work, thus giving me confidence that we can still attract that type of Bedard at this point in time.Yes, he has been erratic lately, but he’s due to return to usual form, which he’s flashed for much of the season. I believe he still has it in him, and will dig a little deeper in effort to keep the Pirates’ feel-good-story resurgence going. Vegas clearly loves it, I loved it before I even saw the line, and you should, too, despite it obviously being one of the shadiest over/under lines of the year.
Other6/8 MLB Over/Unders I’m Taking:
Rick Porcello vs Bronson Arroyo OVER 9 -$60 for $50
Jeremy Hellickson vs Ricky Nolasco UNDER8 - $32 for $30
Johan Santana vs Huroki Kuroda UNDER 9 -$18 for $15
**Will Add More Over/Under(s) ThroughoutDay Leading Up To Gametime**