Saturday: Thoughts on inter league play

On Friday, the NL is definitely holding its own. They might even win more than half of the games at this writing. The late games seem to be going for the AL, but we'll see.

But this is a small sample and the NL did this the last day of the 3 days in May referred to in Friday's post. I still can think of many reasons why the AL will win most of this weeks's interleague games. One point made last night was that in the last 3 days in May of IL the AL won many, many more games by wide margins. And there were some remarkable stats or lines by players and teams, in the positive for the AL, and the negative for the NL.

The AL has a better winning pct. for the past many years (and that's a large sample). Because of the Yankees and Red Sox, other AL teams are forced to compete by signing some of the better(and more) free agents. Texas, LA, Detroit, Chicago, and Seattle have all tried to sign the top free agents in recent years, while the smaller markets have signed some of the second tier guys. Tampa and Minnesota have been fairly successful drafting developing players (Minn. pitching draftees not so much). The AL also signs some of the aging or non-athletic sluggers that make good DHs.

I also think that AL pitchers have to refine their pitching to pitch through lineups that real hitters 1-9. Because of this, AL teams are constantly looking for good veterans to fill out their bullpens. The NL lineups have a pitcher in the 9 spot, and in some cases, some pathetic hitters in the 7-8 spots. Therefore NL pitchers get a breather every 2 or 3 innings usually for the first 6 or 7 innings ( before pinch-hitters come in). Because of the above reasons, the NL pitchers have inflated stats. This is what I look for in IL play. I also look for NL teams that were struggling in league play to score runs. They are now playing vs. unfamiliar pitchers in unfamiliar stadiums. They aren't likely to break out now.The PHillies broke out tonight because they faced Arrieta, who has seemingly lost all confidence, but I don't expect they'll continue to hit. On the other hand, AL teams playing in NL stadiums might lose a very good hitter(their DH), so that's on a case by case basis.

Anyways, pick your spots and remember you don't have to win 70% or anything like that to make money.

Also note that 4 of the NL wins tonight were against 4 of the worst(or slumping badly) starters of the AL : Hochevar, Floyd, Arrieta, Porcello- all with ERAs over 5 and pitching badly lately. The Nats beating Doubront was impressive though.

YTD: 103-90, + 30.5 units

Detroit: There is nothing wrong with Verlander. His last 2 mediocre starts were at hitter happy Fenway and Comerica Park, against the Yanks(who are hot) and the Sox (also hitting well). And although the Reds are playing better of late, they have fattened up on the likes of Houston and Pittsburgh, which in my mind are 2 completive teams only because they're in the NL. One can't hit and the other can't pitch. Also, the Tigers have Peralta, Avila, Berry and Young all hitting better in the past week. Add Cabrera and Fielder, many lefty bats and Arroyo should get toasted. Arroyo has been roughed up his last 5 starts- 29 IPs, 40 hits, and 18 runs. This is a great 5 inning bet since the Reds have a decided BP advantage. On the other hand, Verlander might go 8 or 9 innings. The Reds have never faced Verlander either, which is an advantage to the pitcher. I think the Tigers can't stand the thought of not supporting Verlander since he has been money for them so many times.
3 units -1/2 first 5 innings
one unit RL

Chisox: Like Detroit, Chicago is sending out their ace. Possibly the best pitching lefty in the AL for this year. Sale's slider is becoming almost unhittable, and his fastball can touch mid-90s. He also has used a change-up effectively. The Astros just got through beating a dreadful Gavin Floyd, whose stats deserve a demotion to the BP or AAA- 8 HRs in his last 3 games, and there are more such awful numbers. Lyles gives up too many HRs, getting called up and sent down to AAA on a regular basis. That tells me he hasn't refined his pitches enough to really stick yet. The White Sox can also stack their lineup with lefties to challenge all the way down the lineup. The Astros are hitting as of late, but they also have been stopped vs. great pitchers like Sale.
Chicago-1. 2 units
Chicago -1/2. first 5 innings. 2 units.

SF: My first NL team. At even money. Vogelsong is just like the 3 tough RHPs that Oakland used to stop the Ranger hitters. He always has a quality start, and has been especially good against the better hitting NL teams. The Rangers have Beltre, Moreland and Hamilton, and somewhat Cruz, all in a slump. The Giants can hit well enough to beat Feldman, who is truly the definition of a spot starter, who has given up 17 runs in his last 10 IPs. One unit ML.
Also SF, one unit -1/2 first 5 innings

What's with all the 5 inning plays? Usually it's because the team I like has a weaker bullpen, but an advantage otherwise. The Blue Jays today fit that today. All of their hitters are back and they finally have their full arsenal. Some guys are hot, quite a few lefties for Hanson. Hanson is a solid pitcher who's having a slightly down year. His velocity is down in the low 90s. 4 HRs in his last 2 games. What I like here is that Hutchinson has had two dominating starts and is battle tested vs. the toughest AL teams. I also like that Toronto has had a brutal schedule and has come out of it fairly well. The Braves have scored more than 4 only three times since May 18, and had only one of those games vs. a quality starter. I believe they still have enough slumping hitters to make this a nice underdog bet. Toronto -1/2 first 5 innings +160.

Obviously your picks are biases. You put down the NL and promote the Al this time and last inter league play. I use to look at your write ups alot, but you go here and there and then you say the Al this promoting that gives them a % chance to win. If your 50/50 or 60/40 you go with the AL every time. And for higher units. The Al use to be the strongest and still might be, but not for long. bol man and im not trying to call you out just sayin what I feel and why i havent been in to comment lately.

o fred said:

YTD: 103-90, + 30.5 units

Detroit: There is nothing wrong with Verlander. His last 2 mediocre starts were at hitter happy Fenway and Comerica Park, against the Yanks(who are hot) and the Sox (also hitting well). And although the Reds are playing better of late, they have fattened up on the likes of Houston and Pittsburgh, which in my mind are 2 completive teams only because they're in the NL. One can't hit and the other can't pitch. Also, the Tigers have Peralta, Avila, Berry and Young all hitting better in the past week. Add Cabrera and Fielder, many lefty bats and Arroyo should get toasted. Arroyo has been roughed up his last 5 starts- 29 IPs, 40 hits, and 18 runs. This is a great 5 inning bet since the Reds have a decided BP advantage. On the other hand, Verlander might go 8 or 9 innings. The Reds have never faced Verlander either, which is an advantage to the pitcher. I think the Tigers can't stand the thought of not supporting Verlander since he has been money for them so many times.
3 units -1/2 first 5 innings
one unit RL

Chisox: Like Detroit, Chicago is sending out their ace. Possibly the best pitching lefty in the AL for this year. Sale's slider is becoming almost unhittable, and his fastball can touch mid-90s. He also has used a change-up effectively. The Astros just got through beating a dreadful Gavin Floyd, whose stats deserve a demotion to the BP or AAA- 8 HRs in his last 3 games, and there are more such awful numbers. Lyles gives up too many HRs, getting called up and sent down to AAA on a regular basis. That tells me he hasn't refined his pitches enough to really stick yet. The White Sox can also stack their lineup with lefties to challenge all the way down the lineup. The Astros are hitting as of late, but they also have been stopped vs. great pitchers like Sale.
Chicago-1. 2 units
Chicago -1/2. first 5 innings. 2 units.

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Avila is on the DL.

MadPicker said:

Obviously your picks are biases. You put down the NL and promote the Al this time and last inter league play. I use to look at your write ups alot, but you go here and there and then you say the Al this promoting that gives them a % chance to win. If your 50/50 or 60/40 you go with the AL every time. And for higher units. The Al use to be the strongest and still might be, but not for long. bol man and im not trying to call you out just sayin what I feel and why i havent been in to comment lately.

Click to expand...

Damn right I'm biased. I'm biased to at least 8 years running of the AL having a better winning pct. in IL play. Sometimes by a wide margin. As for going with AL every time, I'm not sure what you are referring to. I have said that you have to pick your spots. Of course the NL is going to win about 35-45%. As for playing more units, that is just bad money management. Baseball betting is definitely fitting that cliche,"It's a marathon, not a sprint". Finally, until the NL shows they are superior, which hasn't happened yet, I'm going with my biases. Not trying to be snippy here, but just explaining……..

This one is at -130, but it looks good to me. Even though the Diamondback's stadium is pitcher friendly, this could be an early inning pitcher's duel. Arizona/ Oakland under 5.5 for first 5 innings- one unit. Oakland hit well at home recently, but I still think you have a pretty lousy lineup that can't sustain run production. Cahill is also a ground ball pitcher, with only 3 HRs this year off of him. Jarrod Parker has been remarkable all year, and especially lately. He has pitched very well at Boston, against Detroit, Texas, Toronto, the Angels and the Chisox. He has only yielded 1 HR this year. Arizona's lineup, in my opinion is overrated and their stats are inflated from their home park. With Cahill and Parker facing their former teams, I see a very competitively pitched game. Not every game in Arizona is an over, and with the roof closed, more unders happen than when it's open. In fact, looking at this year's home games, there have been a number of unders- even with a below average D-Back pitching staff.

Hi Fred:

Love your write ups and insights. You are a storage locker of information.

AZ is reporting that the roof is open.

http://arizona.diamondbacks.mlb.com/ari/ballpark/information/index.jsp?content=roof

My two sites are offering a 5 under instead of a 5.5.

Do you have other roof info than this?

Keep up the great work.

Catch

The Good Ol Detriot Tigers they manage to Fuck us once a week

Keep up the great picks!!!!!!!

Thanks,

I guess I assumed it would be closed since it's about 95 degrees outside. How do they stand it? Anyways, the wind is blowing in toward home plate at 8 mph. I still like the play. I even bet it on the side of one unit.

Final play: Cleveland. This is a nice underdog. The Indians have an all lefty lineup tonight against Lohse. This is also a play against the slumping Cards and the resurging Indians. This is on the small side of 1 unit.ML