The Cat's MLB Over/Under Bets & Detailed Writeups - June 9, 2012 - YTD: 160-147-15 (23-10-3 in June thus far)

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2012 MLB O/U Record: 160-147-15, -$681 (Been making bigger bets this year, with countless bad breaks, obviously)
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104


Another excellent day yesterday in going 6-2, including winning all four of my top bets, as I’m just rolling strong through this month of June that has seen me go a remarkable 23-10-3. I could argue that I should actually be better than that, as I’ve earned all of those wins (As usual), while the majority of those “losses” was either because of fluke unpredictable BS or was off by a half-run/one run, meaning I wasn’t actually "wrong "on the game. In any case, it’s been a dominant month that I plan on continuing because my mindset, which I’ve stressed is the most importantthing to a gambler above all else, is not even close to being content, and I will not be content until I approach my amazing 57.5 winning percentage from last year and/or exceed it. That said, let’s move on to Saturday, which surprisingly has been my best day of the week this year (After it was ironically my worst day of the week in 2011)…


Jeff Samardzija vs Scott Diamond UNDER 8 - $27 for $25
Just a smaller-size bet to kick things off on this interleague Saturday so I won’t be giving this one the full write-up treatment. However, that doesn’t mean it has no potential, as we have two guys here who have been real feel-good stories of 2012, and have shown no signs of slowing down. Jeff Samardzija, of course, has taken as unique a journey to The Show as anyone in baseball, going from highly-touted Notre Dame prized wide receiver to Major League pitcher. Not only that, he’s shifted roles, transforming from a solid reliever into, thus far, a wildly successful starting pitcher. As I’ve pointed out a few times this year in Samardzija games I’ve taken, his success should be seen as no surprise, as he has been very consistent and just seems to have picked up the craft of starting very quickly,especially for someone at a younger age. He’s continued his seemingly season-long roll, having not given up more than three runs in a start since April 19 - a string of eight consecutive starts! That’s impressive and must be noted. Scott Diamond, meanwhile, is someone I pointed out right away before his first start (When he out-dueled Dan Haren and shut out the Angels over 7 innings) and, like Samardzija, I’m not surprised by his success either. Diamond comes off as one of those crafty lefties that just knows how to pitch, as evident in his extremely low number of walks, that being a measly four in six starts. With a WHIP below 1.20, Diamond can continue to be successful as long as he keeps those walks down in the way that he does, because he’s still young into his starting pitching career so teams still only have limited film on him and his tendencies. Diamond is using that to his advantage and simply pitching to contact to go deep into ballgames. The only thing I’m worried about is that the Cubs offense is aggressive, so Diamond is going to have to throw a few more pitches than normal outside the strike zone to keep them off balance. That’s his clear-cut main key to victory this afternoon.


**Will Add My Bigger Over/Under Bets And Everything Else A Bit Later**
 
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**Final Dollar Amounts To Be Posted Later Leading Up To Gametime** (Aside from my one 4 o'clock game, which has the $$ amount posted)


Oakland Athletics @ Arizona Diamondbacks (Best Bet)
Jarrod Parker vs Trevor Cahill
UNDER 9

How often do you see something like this happen? Two pitchers, who were traded for one another this past offseason, going at it one-on-one only a few months into the tenure with their new team. That’s quite the variable. This is also a bit of an usual best bet tonight, at least for me, as I rarely go after unders in an overs haven like Bank One Ballpark…err, I mean Chase Field, but the pitching matchup combined with the relatively high line has too much to offer. In last night’s series opener between these two clubs, a combined 17 runs and 31 hits were put on the scoreboard, leading one to believe that both offenses have hit their peak. Well, one certainly has with more consistency, that being the Arizona lineup that I have been praising all year, especially the potential of inevitable superstar Paul Goldschmidt (Anyone that had this guy in fantasy and actually dropped him needs to quit life because you obviously don’t know baseball if you did that) coming out in a huge way. Still, while the Diamondbacks offense is hot, it will be very tough to keep it going against another similar flame, that being rookie JarrodP arker, another guy I’ve been right about in labeling him a “can’t-miss” success early in the season. Just take a look at the numbers for yourself: 8 starts, 2.40 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, and only one homer allowed. I mean, aside from that last statistic, which the Law of Averages indicates will be broken tonight, since this game is taking place in an extreme hitter’s park where there’s lots of homeruns, you have to be impressed with Parker. I am, so much so, that I would completely guarantee he remains in the top two or three of the Athletics rotation from here on out for YEARS to come. His stuff is good andhis make-up as a pitcher is excellent. It also helps when he’s making a lot of his starts at the pitching-friendly Oakland Coliseum, but if you break down all of his starts, he’s given up two runs or LESS in seven of his eight starts! That’s incredible! Parker is obviously in an extended groove to begin his Major League career, and with a line as high as 9, he even has room for error in this evening’s contest as he goes up against the organization that he developed with.

Meanwhile, his opposing hurler, Trevor Cahill, has a much more significant tie to his old team, as the southpaw spent his whole career prior to 2012 with the Athletics, and had much success with them in the process, especially in 2010 when he won 18 games and compiled an ERA of 2.97 and a WHIP of 1.11. That’s Cy Young-esque. Cahill dropped off a bit last year but has re-gained some momentum with his new teammates, as he’s 3-5 with a more-than-respectable 3.45 ERA and 1.28 WHIP. To be honest, I’m not ana vid supporter of Cahill, as from watching him grow since his rookie year of 2009, I was never overly impressed. I mean, he has the ability to maintain a fine career as a Major League starter, albeit in a dangerous place for pitchers like Arizona, but I never bought into his post-2010 hype. His strikeout numbers have never stood out, and for a pitcher that can be beat in a variety of ways (Walks a decent amount; has displayed hittable stuff; can mentally lose it easily based on in-game situations), he’s not really the safest bet for an under. BUT, when you rarely get a vibe on a pitcher you are not a fan of, that can be a positive thing, as long as your senses for over/unders are in tact and make sense. Cahill, in this specific spot, will be gunning to take down his ex-mates. As a result, you know he’ll fully be into this one. Furthermore, as I mentioned, it’s a matchup of two guys that were traded for each other - it’s such a unique variable that creates a different kind of tension when entering this game in the mindset if you going all out in trying to prove your new team right for making this deal. With both guys clicking at the moment (Also didn’t mention Cahill is coming off a complete game shutout), it wouldn’t be surprising to see some of their best stuff on display, especially in a live Saturday night MLB Network setting. It’s the only game on tonight from 10 o’clocko n, and since it’s airing nationally (Most likely at every bar in America on a Saturday night), that’s also another thing to consider, knowing there could potentially be a ginormous audience around the country.


Texas Rangers @ San Francisco Giants - $60 for $50
Scott Feldman vs Ryan Vogelsong
OVER 7.5

A lot of people reading this analysis might think I’m only taking the over for one reason: Scott Feldman. Well, if you think that, you couldn’t be any more wrong because I actually like Feldy (As Ron Washington calls him). He hasn’t shown it this year, but at one point in time, Feldman was actually a consistent top-of-the-rotation starter forTexas (Being a diehard Rangers fan, I’ve always liked him), and actually contended with CC Sabathia for the AL Cy Young award the year he won 17 games and was officially voted Rangers Pitcher of the Year in 2009. Three years ago is nothing to me, but it must seem like an eternity to Feldman, as he hasn’t been as good since, or even remotely close to that this year while serving in a swingman starting role. In fact, he’s just been plain bad, especially in his last started when he was tagged by the A’s for eight runs in less than two innings. Yeesh. However, that could have everything to do with Feldman’s mindset, knowing he’s not a permanent solution for the back-end of the pitching staff (Since the team had just acquired Roy Oswalt shortly before that start), but at the same time, with Derek Holland recently going on the DL, that might give Feldman a new lease on life, or at least in his life as a Major League starting pitcher, which is the only concern I have for this one: Scott Feldman could easily contribute a quality start here.

As crazy as it sounds, I have more confidence in the Rangers roughing up Ryan Vogelsong, as opposed to the Giants hitting Feldman around. Vogelsong, the best feel-good story of a year ago, has picked up right where he left off, in going 4-2 with a 2.38 ERA and 1.22 WHIP, not to mention a dazzling .228 batting average against. While he’s been great, and could be on his way to a second consecutive all-star berth, he’s definitelyg oing at a pace that he cannot continue, thus meaning there has to be some kindof “come down” point, which I could start to see happening today. The Rangers, offensively, are as good as it gets in all of baseball, and like I said, whileVogelsong is definitely a very good pitcher at this point in time, I just see Texas getting to him. You know his stats won’t remain that low, so why not pick this potential spot as the one where it begins to inflate? All we need is a 6-2ish kind of game and the over hits. If I’m wrong on Vogelsong, we could easily get some production out of the Giants lineup. There’s real potential for some sort of lopsided affair with a crooked number involved.


Other 6/9 MLB Over/Unders I’m Taking:
Vin Mazzaro vs James McDonald OVER 7/7.5 (Waiting to see if the line drops to 7 like it SHOULD. Vegas obviously likes the over if last night’s inferior pitching matchup, my victorious best bet, Hochevar vs Bedard had a line of 7!)


**May Add More Over/Under(s) ThroughoutDay Leading Up To Gametime**
 
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Final $$ amounts for my late games...

Parker vs Cahill UNDER 9 - $74 for $70
Mazzaro vs McDonald OVER 7.5 - $17 for $15 (Why was this 7.5 all day and not 7? Makes ZERO sense when Hochevar vs Bedard last night was 7)
Masterson vs Lohse UNDER 9 - $15 for $15
 

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