2012 MLB O/U Record: 162-150-15, -$812 (Been makingbigger bets this year, with countless bad breaks, obviously)
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104
Disappointing 2-3 performance yesterday, especially in my Parker vs Cahill best bet that was cruising through the fifth. Of course, I lost that game because of the one and only reason I said we could lose it, in which I guaranteed Jarrod Parker, despite only giving up ONE homerun all year in his previous eight starts, would fall victim to the longball inthis specific start, which he certainly did in issuing that two-out grand slamto Miguel Montero. Without that one mistake, he gives us a gem, just likeTrevor Cahill did, and the under wins easily, but all it takes is one measly pitch to ruin an entire under. We still should have won it, as it was 6-1entering the final two frames of the ballgame, still with room for error, but it was just not to be. Feldman vs Vogelsong was also a frustrating loss, as my EXACT PREDICTION was 6-2, which would nail the over. Final score? 5-2. So despite basically being exactly right and knowing the exact type of game it would be, I was rewarded with a "loss." Just move on to the next day, which I plan on taking lightly today as I just didn’t feel as “into it” when doing my technique upon coming home last night. When that’s the case, it’s not a bad idea to just concede and take a laid-back approach, as I am doing on this Sunday…
Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles - $34 for $30
Cliff Lee vs Jason Hammel
UNDER8.5
I’ve been meaning to jump on the Jason Hammel bandwagon all season, as this is someone who always had potential, although I don’t think there’s anyone who thought he would enjoy quite this much success, as he has had with Baltimore thus far. In going 6-2 with a 2.97 ERA and 1.22 WHIP, not to mention striking out an impressive 65 batters in 66 innings, Hammel has solidified himself as the ace of an Orioles rotation that is flirting with postseason glory. Furthermore, Hammel has been remarkably consistent, other than a back-to-back run of rough outings in mid-May against the Yankees and Nationals. Nonetheless, I’ve been thinking for awhile now that Hammel is legit - he may not end the year with a golden ERA less than 3, but he could easily clock in with one just above it, which is more than acceptable, especially for someone who most figured would simply be a middle or bottom-of-the-rotation starter throughout his entire career. Nope, that’s not the case at all. Hammel is legit and we should continue to see him pump out quality starts, especially at home somehow. An unfortunate trend for Baltimore pitchers over the years is that they’ve suffered at hitter-friendly Camden Yards, but that hasn’t been the case for Hammel at all, as his numbers at home (3-0, 1.73 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, .191 BAA) easily trump his numbers on the road (3-2,3.76 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, .265 BAA), which is a pattern that hopefully continues today.
While Hammel is creeping up on the league leaders with six wins, Cliff Lee, the highly-regarded ace and clearlys till one of the better pitchers in all of baseball, is still somehow searching for victory No. 1. It’s obviously on his mind, as evident when he got into a confrontation with Shane Victorino concerning his hustle in the outfield in what turned out to be one his close losses in 2012. That’s actually a very good thing, or at least as it pertains to this specific over/under, because it means Cliff Lee, who is unhittable when at the top of his game, is not content with anything at all at the current moment, meaning we should continue to see his best stuff on a regular basis until he starts racking up wins. The worrisome thing about taking an under with a top pitcher like Lee, who you know is one of the top guys out there across the board, is that you don’t know where they are mentally, which could cause them to have an unusually off start. Luckily, we shouldn’t have to worry about that, based on Lee’s distinct attitude towards his lack of wins on the year, which indicates he won’t be taking anything for granted, and that’s crucial going up against a potent offense like Baltimore’s. That said, if we get Lee in his usual groove, and the line as high as 8.5 (Which is unusual for a Cliff Lee start), then we should be in good shape.
Other 6/10 MLB Over/Unders I’m Taking:
Lucas Harrell vs Philip Humber UNDER 10- $17 for $15 (Harrell facing his old team that he developed with, while Humber is much better than his overall numbers might lead you to believe)
**May Add More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104
Disappointing 2-3 performance yesterday, especially in my Parker vs Cahill best bet that was cruising through the fifth. Of course, I lost that game because of the one and only reason I said we could lose it, in which I guaranteed Jarrod Parker, despite only giving up ONE homerun all year in his previous eight starts, would fall victim to the longball inthis specific start, which he certainly did in issuing that two-out grand slamto Miguel Montero. Without that one mistake, he gives us a gem, just likeTrevor Cahill did, and the under wins easily, but all it takes is one measly pitch to ruin an entire under. We still should have won it, as it was 6-1entering the final two frames of the ballgame, still with room for error, but it was just not to be. Feldman vs Vogelsong was also a frustrating loss, as my EXACT PREDICTION was 6-2, which would nail the over. Final score? 5-2. So despite basically being exactly right and knowing the exact type of game it would be, I was rewarded with a "loss." Just move on to the next day, which I plan on taking lightly today as I just didn’t feel as “into it” when doing my technique upon coming home last night. When that’s the case, it’s not a bad idea to just concede and take a laid-back approach, as I am doing on this Sunday…
Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles - $34 for $30
Cliff Lee vs Jason Hammel
UNDER8.5
I’ve been meaning to jump on the Jason Hammel bandwagon all season, as this is someone who always had potential, although I don’t think there’s anyone who thought he would enjoy quite this much success, as he has had with Baltimore thus far. In going 6-2 with a 2.97 ERA and 1.22 WHIP, not to mention striking out an impressive 65 batters in 66 innings, Hammel has solidified himself as the ace of an Orioles rotation that is flirting with postseason glory. Furthermore, Hammel has been remarkably consistent, other than a back-to-back run of rough outings in mid-May against the Yankees and Nationals. Nonetheless, I’ve been thinking for awhile now that Hammel is legit - he may not end the year with a golden ERA less than 3, but he could easily clock in with one just above it, which is more than acceptable, especially for someone who most figured would simply be a middle or bottom-of-the-rotation starter throughout his entire career. Nope, that’s not the case at all. Hammel is legit and we should continue to see him pump out quality starts, especially at home somehow. An unfortunate trend for Baltimore pitchers over the years is that they’ve suffered at hitter-friendly Camden Yards, but that hasn’t been the case for Hammel at all, as his numbers at home (3-0, 1.73 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, .191 BAA) easily trump his numbers on the road (3-2,3.76 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, .265 BAA), which is a pattern that hopefully continues today.
While Hammel is creeping up on the league leaders with six wins, Cliff Lee, the highly-regarded ace and clearlys till one of the better pitchers in all of baseball, is still somehow searching for victory No. 1. It’s obviously on his mind, as evident when he got into a confrontation with Shane Victorino concerning his hustle in the outfield in what turned out to be one his close losses in 2012. That’s actually a very good thing, or at least as it pertains to this specific over/under, because it means Cliff Lee, who is unhittable when at the top of his game, is not content with anything at all at the current moment, meaning we should continue to see his best stuff on a regular basis until he starts racking up wins. The worrisome thing about taking an under with a top pitcher like Lee, who you know is one of the top guys out there across the board, is that you don’t know where they are mentally, which could cause them to have an unusually off start. Luckily, we shouldn’t have to worry about that, based on Lee’s distinct attitude towards his lack of wins on the year, which indicates he won’t be taking anything for granted, and that’s crucial going up against a potent offense like Baltimore’s. That said, if we get Lee in his usual groove, and the line as high as 8.5 (Which is unusual for a Cliff Lee start), then we should be in good shape.
Other 6/10 MLB Over/Unders I’m Taking:
Lucas Harrell vs Philip Humber UNDER 10- $17 for $15 (Harrell facing his old team that he developed with, while Humber is much better than his overall numbers might lead you to believe)
**May Add More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**
